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Thread: Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February

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    Re: Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February

    Quote Originally Posted by danarhea View Post
    OK, here is the problem I have with using Gallup. From your own article:

    1) Gallup does not look at any hard data, but conducts a poll, in which a relatively small sample of people are called on the telephone.

    2) There is a margin of error of one percent here, which means that we do NOT know if the unemployment rate is what it shows in the poll, if it is higher, or if it is actually in line with, or even better than what has been predicted already, which would be 9.3 percent.

    This is not news. This is a pollster attempting to do WITH A POLL what the BLS is doing with ACTUAL DATA. Of course, if you hate Obama because he is Obama, and for no other reason, then this is a good poll to use, but it is not accurate at all. Yes, 1 percent sounds like just a little bit, but with numbers this low, it is extremely inaccurate. Now, if the unemployment rate hits 50 percent, then one percent would mean a lot less. Understand that unemployment data is not at all like favorability numbers for political figures, in which the numbers are high enough that the margin of error plays less into the results.

    IMHO, Gallup has no business attempting to find out what the unemployment numbers are by polling, due to the smaller sizes of unemployment, compared to statistical tracking of politicians and people's attitudes. It could very well result in inaccurate conclusions. It all boils down to the age old axiom "There are lies, there are damned lies, and then, there are statistics".

    I will evaluate the unemployment picture for myself by looking at the BLS data as it comes out, thank you.
    NOTE: The latest data from the BLS, from January, shows unemployment at 9.7 percent. February data will be out shortly. These are actual and real numbers I can believe in, as opposed to a poll, which I cannot believe in.
    Last edited by danarhea; 03-04-11 at 04:56 AM.
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    Re: Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February

    yes. if there is one thing we have found over the past; it's the superiority of government bureacracy at measuring and predicting complex items like the economy.

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    Re: Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February

    Quote Originally Posted by CriticalThought View Post
    Weren't the Republicans gonna fix things when they took over the House?
    nope; they were going to provide a clear alternative that the people could then choose between in 2012. and until then, keep the Democrats from continuing to pour gasoline on our burning fiscal house.

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    Re: Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February

    Quote Originally Posted by CriticalThought View Post
    Weren't the Republicans gonna fix things when they took over the House?
    yeah...it's easy to fix Obama's ****-ups instantly when you control 1 of 3

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    Re: Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February

    Gallup says 10.3%
    BLS says 9.7%
    The Obama administration says 8.9% Gov. Report puts unemp rate at 8.9%


    someone is lying.

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    Re: Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February

    Quote Originally Posted by Whovian View Post
    Gallup says 10.3%
    BLS says 9.7%
    The Obama administration says 8.9% Gov. Report puts unemp rate at 8.9%


    someone is lying.
    Want to bet who?

    Here is the rest of the story

    1.02 million left the labor force in February, a short month, so they weren't counted. That of course lowers the unemployment rate. Still waiting for the Obama employment numbers to be better than they were when he took office. Since Obama has taken office people have been dropping out of the labor market at over 1 million per month. that is hardly a win.

    Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
    Original Data Value

    Series Id: LNS13000000
    Seasonally Adjusted
    Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Level
    Labor force status: Unemployed
    Type of data: Number in thousands
    Age: 16 years and over
    Years: 2000 to 2010

    Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
    2000 5708 5858 5733 5481 5758 5651 5747 5853 5625 5534 5639 5634
    2001 6023 6089 6141 6271 6226 6484 6583 7042 7142 7694 8003 8258
    2002 8182 8215 8304 8599 8399 8393 8390 8304 8251 8307 8520 8640
    2003 8520 8618 8588 8842 8957 9266 9011 8896 8921 8732 8576 8317
    2004 8370 8167 8491 8170 8212 8286 8136 7990 7927 8061 7932 7934
    2005 7784 7980 7737 7672 7651 7524 7406 7345 7553 7453 7566 7279
    2006 7059 7185 7075 7122 6977 6998 7154 7097 6853 6728 6883 6784
    2007 7085 6898 6725 6845 6765 6966 7113 7096 7200 7273 7284 7696
    2008 7628 7435 7793 7631 8397 8560 8895 9509 9569 10172 10617 11400
    2009 11919 12714 13310 13816 14518 14721 14534 14993 15159 15612 15340 15267
    2010 14837 14871 15005 15260 14973 14623 14599 14860 14767 14843 15119 14485
    2011 13863 13673
    Discouraged workers
    2008 467 396 401 412 400 420 461 381 467 484 608 642
    2009 734 731 685 740 792 793 796 758 706 808 861 929
    2010 1065 1204 994 1197 1083 1207 1185 1110 1209 1219 1282 1318
    2011 993 1020

    Unemployed + Discouraged
    2008 8095 7831 8194 8043 8797 8980 9356 9890 10036 10656 11225 12042
    2009 12653 13445 13995 14556 15310 15514 15330 15751 15865 16420 16201 16196
    2010 15902 16075 15999 16457 16056 15830 15784 15970 15976 16062 16401 15803
    2011 14856 14693

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    Re: Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Want to bet who?

    Here is the rest of the story

    1.02 million left the labor force in February, a short month, so they weren't counted. That of course lowers the unemployment rate. Still waiting for the Obama employment numbers to be better than they were when he took office. Since Obama has taken office people have been dropping out of the labor market at over 1 million per month. that is hardly a win.

    Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
    Original Data Value

    Series Id: LNS13000000
    Seasonally Adjusted
    Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Level
    Labor force status: Unemployed
    Type of data: Number in thousands
    Age: 16 years and over
    Years: 2000 to 2010

    Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
    2000 5708 5858 5733 5481 5758 5651 5747 5853 5625 5534 5639 5634
    2001 6023 6089 6141 6271 6226 6484 6583 7042 7142 7694 8003 8258
    2002 8182 8215 8304 8599 8399 8393 8390 8304 8251 8307 8520 8640
    2003 8520 8618 8588 8842 8957 9266 9011 8896 8921 8732 8576 8317
    2004 8370 8167 8491 8170 8212 8286 8136 7990 7927 8061 7932 7934
    2005 7784 7980 7737 7672 7651 7524 7406 7345 7553 7453 7566 7279
    2006 7059 7185 7075 7122 6977 6998 7154 7097 6853 6728 6883 6784
    2007 7085 6898 6725 6845 6765 6966 7113 7096 7200 7273 7284 7696
    2008 7628 7435 7793 7631 8397 8560 8895 9509 9569 10172 10617 11400
    2009 11919 12714 13310 13816 14518 14721 14534 14993 15159 15612 15340 15267
    2010 14837 14871 15005 15260 14973 14623 14599 14860 14767 14843 15119 14485
    2011 13863 13673
    Discouraged workers
    2008 467 396 401 412 400 420 461 381 467 484 608 642
    2009 734 731 685 740 792 793 796 758 706 808 861 929
    2010 1065 1204 994 1197 1083 1207 1185 1110 1209 1219 1282 1318
    2011 993 1020

    Unemployed + Discouraged
    2008 8095 7831 8194 8043 8797 8980 9356 9890 10036 10656 11225 12042
    2009 12653 13445 13995 14556 15310 15514 15330 15751 15865 16420 16201 16196
    2010 15902 16075 15999 16457 16056 15830 15784 15970 15976 16062 16401 15803
    2011 14856 14693
    Obama is using the same BLS figures that Bush used. So why weren't you mad as hell at Bush?

    Here are the BLS figures for February.

    Unemployment = 8.9
    Productivity = +2.6
    Unit production costs = -0.6
    Last edited by danarhea; 03-04-11 at 09:26 PM.
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    Re: Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February

    Quote Originally Posted by danarhea View Post
    Obama is using the same BLS figures that Bush used. So why weren't you mad as hell at Bush?

    Here are the BLS figures for February.

    Unemployment = 8.9
    Productivity = +2.6
    Unit production costs = -0.6
    Why would I be mad at Bush, he isn't in office any more and Obama was hired to "clean up" the Bush mess as liberals call it. If you take 1 million people out of the unemployment roles what do you expect the unemployment rate to be? I posted the discouraged workers for Bush in 2008 as well. Also Bush didn't spend a trillion dollars to generate the 2008 numbers either but he did sign TARP which economists say kept us from a great depression.

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    Re: Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Why would I be mad at Bush, he isn't in office any more and Obama was hired to "clean up" the Bush mess as liberals call it. If you take 1 million people out of the unemployment roles what do you expect the unemployment rate to be? I posted the discouraged workers for Bush in 2008 as well. Also Bush didn't spend a trillion dollars to generate the 2008 numbers either but he did sign TARP which economists say kept us from a great depression.
    It's just to show the hypocrisy that, when a Republican was using figures from the exact same organization, you didn't make a peep.
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    Re: Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February

    Quote Originally Posted by danarhea View Post
    It's just to show the hypocrisy that, when a Republican was using figures from the exact same organization, you didn't make a peep.
    I wasn't in this forum when Bush was in office so how do you know what my stance was with the 2008 numbers? Do you realize that even with the 2008 numbers, 9/11 and the 2001 recession Bush had a net job gain of 6.5 million over 8 years? Comparing the Bush economic plan to Obama's is night and day. Bush was pro private sector and Obama pro public sector. Obama's economic policy is based upon intellectual elites and not street based and thus will not generate the Bush total results. Bush added 4.5 trillion to the GDP and a net job gain of 6.5 million. He did add 4.9 trillion to the debt in 8 years but Obama will pass that in 3. Obama doesn't have a clue but he reads a good speech.

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