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Thread: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

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    Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    So much for the Holy CBO

    Congressional Budget Office consistently wrong on health-care estimates | The Daily Caller - Breaking News, Opinion, Research, and Entertainment


    Lawmakers often cite CBO figures as holy writ and use them in arguments supporting or opposing proposed measures. But can the CBO estimate costs of complex programs down to the last billion dollars? Do CBO numbers present an accurate picture to legislators and to the American people?

    “Everyone should know that any number will be either too high or too low,” Donald Marron, a former CBO deputy director told The Daily Caller...

    There are a number of problems associated with CBO’s estimates. Some have to do with the games Congress itself plays with numbers. In the case of highly complex programs like health care, a myriad of variables can throw estimates off. In fact, the government’s track record for estimating health-care program costs is poor.

    Congress usually asks CBO to judge a bill’s budget impact over 10 years. In the case of health-care reform, Congress is seeking to fudge the budget impact of the program by starting the program in 2013. But the CBO’s 10-year estimates start with 2010, so that they actually include costs for seven program years...

    In other words, costs for the original Senate bill could run well over $2 trillion during the second decade of the program...

    There is evidence that governments chronically underestimate health-care program costs. A report released over the summer by Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kansas) argues that “health care appears to be an area with great room for overly optimistic assumptions regarding” changes in the behavior of patients and providers, the impact of technology, future health cost inflation and the likely success of cost controls.

    The report cites numerous instances of faulty health-care estimates from Medicare and Medicaid, the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), the Massachusetts universal-coverage plan and the United Kingdom’s National Health Service.

    For example, the House Ways and Means Committee estimated that the original Medicare hospital insurance program would cost $9 billion annually by 1990. Actual spending that year was $67 billion...


    The same committee predicted in 1967 that the total Medicare

    program would cost $12 billion in 1990. Actual spending was $110 billion...

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Kudos, yep, congress lied to us. hey while we're on the topic, did we ever get any CBO estimates on 'the war on terror' (or 'the war on individuality' to be more exact).
    Democracy is two wolves and sheep voting on what's for dinner. Liberty is a well armed sheep willing to contest the vote.

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Zyroh View Post
    Kudos, yep, congress lied to us. hey while we're on the topic, did we ever get any CBO estimates on 'the war on terror' (or 'the war on individuality' to be more exact).
    Not aware of the war of "individuality", but as to the WOT, congress simply appropriates the money when it si asked for. Kinda like pay as you go.. Or pay as you kill..


    Tim-
    “When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators.” - P. J. O’Rourke
    “Socialism is great until you run out of someone elses money” Margaret Thatcher

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicup View Post
    congress simply appropriates the money when it si asked for. Kinda like pay as you go.. Or pay as you kill..


    Tim-
    you're more right than you realize since last senate vote was 100-0 on 'defense spending' being greater for our 5% of the population than the other 95% combined.
    Last edited by Zyroh; 01-06-11 at 06:16 PM. Reason: fat fingers
    Democracy is two wolves and sheep voting on what's for dinner. Liberty is a well armed sheep willing to contest the vote.

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Isn't this latest projection on the cost of repeal a projection on a projection for a law that hasn't been implemented yet?

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Zyroh View Post
    you're more right than you realize since last senate vote was 100-0 on 'defense spending' being greater for our 5% of the population than the other 95% combined.
    USA > Rest of the world.
    Climate, changes. It takes a particularly uneducated population to buy into the idea that it's their fault climate is changing and further political solutions can fix it.



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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    bloomberg, july, 2009: a quarter T double counted (congressman ryan's oft repeated rub)

    The Congressional Budget Office challenged claims by health-care overhaul proponents that Medicare savings in Senate legislation would help finance expanded coverage and postpone the bankruptcy of the medical program for the elderly.

    The nonpartisan agency said the $246 billion it projected the legislation would save Medicare can’t both finance new programs and help pay future expenses for elderly covered under the federal program.

    Nor could those savings be used to extend the solvency of Medicare, set to run out of money in 2017, the budget office said in a letter to Senate Republicans.

    The estimated Medicare savings in the legislation overstate “the improvement in the government’s fiscal position,” the CBO said in the letter.

    “The true increase in the ability to pay for future Medicare benefits or other programs would be a good deal smaller,” the budget office said.

    The budget office said that whenever the Medicare trust fund runs a surplus, the savings are turned over to the U.S. Treasury, which issues bonds to borrow for the future needs of participants in the health-care program for the elderly. The trust fund is currently running annual deficits.

    North Dakota Democrat Kent Conrad, chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, has said that the Senate legislation would postpone the Medicare trust fund’s projected 2017 insolvency by several years.

    To credit such projected savings as helping to extend Medicare’s solvency “ignores the burden that would be faced by the rest of the government later in redeeming the bonds held by the trust fund” to pay for future Medicare expenses, the budget office said.

    Arguments that the Medicare savings would both extend Medicare’s solvency and help finance “new spending outside of Medicare would essentially double count a large share of those savings,” the CBO said.
    Budget Office Rebuts Democratic Claims on Medicare (Update1) - Bloomberg

    add to that the deceitful doc fix, another quarter T off budget

    and all those administrative and discretionary costs, 125B more unaccounted for

    CBO ups health care cost projections - Jennifer Haberkorn - POLITICO.com

    cbo scores what you give elmendorf---garbage in, garbage out

    america is ON to obamacare

    why were 200+ toobigs EXEMPTED from the constraints all the rest of us must abide by?

    Approved Applications for Waiver of the Annual Limits Requirements of the PHS Act Section 2711 as of December 3, 2010

    seeya in parliament, progressives

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Until you present a better way of measuring a bill's cost in the future, I'm going to stick with the CBO estimates. "I don't like their numbers for political reasons" is not a good enough reason to devalue the value of the CBO.

    I'm especially annoyed by your willingness to call something wrong when you don't know whats right.

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    USA > Rest of the world.
    and we prove it with the blood of our enemies. or at least people that can't afford to defend themselves.
    Democracy is two wolves and sheep voting on what's for dinner. Liberty is a well armed sheep willing to contest the vote.

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    USA > Rest of the world.
    Its that kind of smug arrogant attitude that stands in the way of addressing real problems and seeing the world for what it is. Once again partisanship and ideology blinds someone to seeing reality and instead allows them to live in a fantasy.

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