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Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

Chappy said:
But, of course, those numbers apply when Republicans offer the repeal of those health care bill cost constraints. Different debate. Not when they offer a total repeal as they are now. That's the issue on the floor this week and CBO says the cost is $230 Billion over the next decade.
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The CBO has also said that the exact same bill would raise the deficit. The reason that they have offered conflicting views is because they only issue reports based on the assumptions that the politicians making the request order them to use for that particular request. I thought that this was explained pretty clearly.

In light of this, it seems a bit absurd to pick one of those numbers and pretend that it's somehow "the accurate one" simply because you're a Democrat and you like to believe things that sound good for Democrats. You're certainly entitled to do so, but I just don't understand why anyone would want to do that.
 
$230 billion - total repeal.

$139 billion - partial repeal of Medicare cost constraints.

And, the conflict is what?
 
Chappy said:
$230 billion - total repeal.

$139 billion - partial repeal of Medicare cost constraints.

And, the conflict is what?
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...

On March 18, 2010, the CBO said that the health care bill would reduce the deficit by $130 billion.

On March 19, 2010, the CBO said that the exact same health care bill would increase the deficit by $260 billion.

The only difference between those two estimates was the set of assumptions that was used. The assumptions provided by Democrats led to the former number, while the assumptions provided by Republicans led to the latter.

Depending on what assumptions you tell the CBO to use, you can get a report that will say pretty much whatever you want. In light of that, I think it's incredibly foolish to blindly credit a number simply because it was produced by the CBO.
 
It's a shame the Republicans didn't come up with a set of assumptions that caused the CBO to say that total repeal of the health care reform bill wouldn't cost $230 billion. Then, at least, they would not look like total hypocrites for attempting to repeal health care reform and increasing the deficit.
 
Chappy said:
It's a shame the Republicans didn't come up with a set of assumptions that caused the CBO to say that total repeal of the health care reform bill wouldn't cost $230 billion. Then, at least, they would not look like total hypocrites for attempting to repeal health care reform and increasing the deficit.
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So if Paul Ryan simply asks the CBO to re-run its last analysis using the same assumptions that he had them use in March, you'll suddenly do an about-face on this issue?

Why is it that you still can't admit that your blind faith in the accuracy of your preferred figure is based on nothing more than the Democrats' assumptions and your own hopes and dreams?
 
What I think you're missing is that health care reform is now the baseline and anything the Republicans propose is the delta.

So far Republican proposals, whether full repeal or partial repeal charge billions to the deficit.

Moreover, full repeal means 32 million Americans who will be getting coverage by 2014 won't be. Donut holes won't be filled this year. People will once again face potentially losing their coverage simply because they got sick. Children will once again be denied coverage because they have pre-existing conditions. On and on.

CBO numbers reflect the delta in dollars but there are a lot of American lives which hang in the balance.
 
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Chappy said:
What I think you're missing is that health care reform is now the baseline and anything the Republicans propose is the delta.
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If the bill as enacted in this spring would raise the deficit by $260b under a particular set of assumptions and a de minimis number of the financially significant provisions have taken effect, then a repeal of the bill would necessarily result in budget savings of approximately $260b. I don't understand how you can possibly dispute this. Set aside all issues of politics - it's common sense and basic math.

So far Republican proposals, whether full repeal or partial repeal charge billions to the deficit.
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...under the Democrats' hand-picked assumptions, which differ substantially from the Republicans' assumptions. Yet, rather than address the merit of the assumptions, you're just pointing at the first number and saying "LOOK THE CBO SAID IT SO ITS TRUE!!!"

I've explained why this is absurd a dozen times already - if it didn't work yet, it's not going to work.

Moreover, full repeal means 32 million Americans who will be getting coverage by 2014 won't be. Donut holes won't be filled this year. People will once again face potentially losing their coverage simply because they got sick. Children will once again be denied coverage because they have pre-existing conditions. On and on.

CBO numbers reflect the delta in dollars but there are a lot of human livse which hang in the balance.
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So now that you realize that you're wrong on the numbers (which is the topic of this thread), you're trying to make this an argument about the morality of the legislation. We've got 500 threads on that, so I'll pass.
 
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Again, the CBO looked at the repeal bill and came out with a price tag: $260 billion in additional national debt. If the Republicans want to change that outcome they must change the repeal bill; it's just that simple.
 
Chappy said:
Again, the CBO looked at the repeal bill and came out with a price tag: $260 billion in additional national debt. If the Republicans want to change that outcome they must change the repeal bill; it's just that simple.
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Or they could just change the assumptions that the CBO used; it's just that simple.

You're clearly not understanding how this works, so I'm off to bed.
 
Democrats went through this same dance with the CBO to get the savings they needed in the health care reform bill last year. You're mixing CBO estimates based on specified assumptions with CBO pricing out specific bills. We should be focusing on the latter.
 
today:

The Congressional Budget Office, in an email to Capitol Hill staffers obtained by the Spectator, has said that repealing the national health care law would reduce net spending by $540 billion in the ten year period from 2012 through 2021. That number represents the cost of the new provisions, minus Medicare cuts. Repealing the bill would also eliminate $770 billion in taxes. It's the tax hikes in the health care law (along with the Medicare cuts) which accounts for the $230 billion in deficit reduction.
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http://spectator.org/blog/2011/01/07/breaking-cbo-says-repealing-ob

seeya on the floor, folks
 
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pbrauer said:
Oh Bull****, the GOP loves the CBO when they agree with them and hates them when they don't. Anyone who runs a large business depends upon projections. Sometimes they are correct and sometimes they are wrong.
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The CBO has NEVER been correct on projections 10 years out, NEVER!
 
It looks like the only problem with the health care bill's cost is that the GOP is going to work to screw it up, and make sure it costs money. Looking at the assumptions, we just need politicians to not f**k something up for once...but of course they're going to, which led to Paul Ryan's estimate. Its a crying shame really...
 
repeter said:
It looks like the only problem with the health care bill's cost is that the GOP is going to work to screw it up, and make sure it costs money. Looking at the assumptions, we just need politicians to not f**k something up for once...but of course they're going to, which led to Paul Ryan's estimate. Its a crying shame really...
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Not that it counts for much on this site but how about some common sense. We ADD 30 million people as users of anything, do not increase supply and expect costs to go down.

The only real question is how stupid do politicians thing we are. Or for this site how blindly partisan we are. Doesn't anyone here get tired of making a silly arguement because it supports THEIR SIDE, whichever one it is. I get tired reading those silly arguements.
 
washunut said:
Not that it counts for much on this site but how about some common sense. We ADD 30 million people as users of anything, do not increase supply and expect costs to go down.

The only real question is how stupid do politicians thing we are. Or for this site how blindly partisan we are. Doesn't anyone here get tired of making a silly arguement because it supports THEIR SIDE, whichever one it is. I get tired reading those silly arguements.
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Logic and common sense are a lost skill on the part of far too many. It is purely partisan to buy the CBO 10 year estimates without considering history, logic, and common sense. CBO admits their projections this far out are tough to determine and we know from history have never been correct yet that doesn't stop partisans from using those projections as absolute gospel. the question is why?
 
Excerpted from “More small businesses are offering health benefits to workers; The increase is partly attributed to a tax credit created by the nation's new healthcare law. Some insurers are aggressively marketing the break, which can offset up to 35% of a company's costs.” By Noam N. Levey, Los Angeles Times, December 27, 2010
[SIZE="+2"]M[/SIZE]ajor insurers around the country are reporting that a growing number of small businesses are signing up to give their workers health benefits, a sign of potential progress for the nation's battered healthcare system. …

An important selling point has been a tax credit that the nation's new healthcare law provides to companies with fewer than 25 employees and moderate-to-low pay scales to help offset the cost of providing benefits. The tax credit is one of the first few provisions to kick in; much of the law rolls out over the next few years. …
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Excerpted from “Small Businesses Start to See Benefits of Healthcare Reform” By Ken Terry, BNET, January 7, 2011
[[SIZE="+2"]E[/SIZE]]vidence is emerging that that legislation is benefiting small companies by making health coverage more affordable. Considering that small businesspeople are among the most reliable Republican supporters, this unexpected bonus to small firms is another blow to the GOP’s claim that it has a popular mandate to overturn reform. …
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“We certainly did not expect to see this in this economy. It's surprising.” — Gary Claxton, nonprofit Kaiser Family Foundation​

Already small businesses and their employees are benefiting from the Affordable Care Act in ways the CBO didn't estimate last year. The value of reform is just beginning to be fully appreciated.
 
Chappy said:
“We certainly did not expect to see this in this economy. It's surprising.” — Gary Claxton, nonprofit Kaiser Family Foundation​

Already small businesses and their employees are benefiting from the Affordable Care Act in ways the CBO didn't estimate last year. The value of reform is just beginning to be fully appreciated.
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16 million unemployed Americans don't see the benefits. You continue to buy what you are told and the question is why? The program hasn't even gone into effect yet so how is anyone seeing any benefits? Where are these people going to get care?

That said, the tax credit will carry us only so far. What’s needed is a sustained, long-term moderation in healthcare costs, the main driver of growth in insurance premiums.
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Chappy said:
“We certainly did not expect to see this in this economy. It's surprising.” — Gary Claxton, nonprofit Kaiser Family Foundation​

Already small businesses and their employees are benefiting from the Affordable Care Act in ways the CBO didn't estimate last year. The value of reform is just beginning to be fully appreciated.
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This is a good example of the folks who blindly follow whatever their party throws out there. Not to be confused with true political debate.
 
repeter said:
we just need politicians to not f**k something up for once...but of course they're going to, which led to Paul Ryan's estimate. Its a crying shame really...
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So you and Paul Ryan agree that politicians messed up the health care reform. seems to contradict all your other posts on this thread.
 
Zyroh said:
So you and Paul Ryan agree that politicians messed up the health care reform. seems to contradict all your other posts on this thread.
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No, it complements my other posts. I don't agree that politicians messed up health care reform, but I do agree they will mess up health care reform because they are going to go out of their way to mess it up some more.
 
so just to recap:
repeter said:
we just need politicians to not f**k something up for once...but of course they're going to, which led to Paul Ryan's estimate. Its a crying shame really...
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repeter said:
I don't agree that politicians messed up health care reform,
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Is this Paul Krugman? Only Paul is arrogant enough to think people won't catch this.
 
Conservative said:
Logic and common sense are a lost skill on the part of far too many. It is purely partisan to buy the CBO 10 year estimates without considering history, logic, and common sense. CBO admits their projections this far out are tough to determine and we know from history have never been correct yet that doesn't stop partisans from using those projections as absolute gospel. the question is why?
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we know why.
 
Chappy said:
Already small businesses and their employees are benefiting from the Affordable Care Act in ways the CBO didn't estimate last year. The value of reform is just beginning to be fully appreciated.
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Takes awhile for certain solvents to get soaked up.
 
Zyroh said:
so just to recap:

Is this Paul Krugman? Only Paul is arrogant enough to think people won't catch this.
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You obviously don't understand what I'm saying. In the second quote from your post, I said I don't think the health care bill is crap. In the first quote, I said if Ryan's assumptions and estimates are correct, then politicians are going to screw up health care reform.

Is that clear enough?

And no, I'm not Paul Krugman lol
 
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