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Thread: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Chappy View Post
    But, of course, those numbers apply when Republicans offer the repeal of those health care bill cost constraints. Different debate. Not when they offer a total repeal as they are now. That's the issue on the floor this week and CBO says the cost is $230 Billion over the next decade.
    The CBO has also said that the exact same bill would raise the deficit. The reason that they have offered conflicting views is because they only issue reports based on the assumptions that the politicians making the request order them to use for that particular request. I thought that this was explained pretty clearly.

    In light of this, it seems a bit absurd to pick one of those numbers and pretend that it's somehow "the accurate one" simply because you're a Democrat and you like to believe things that sound good for Democrats. You're certainly entitled to do so, but I just don't understand why anyone would want to do that.
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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    $230 billion - total repeal.

    $139 billion - partial repeal of Medicare cost constraints.

    And, the conflict is what?
    “Real environmentalists live in cities, and they visit what's left of the wilderness as gently and respectfully as possible.” — Donna Moulton, letter to the editor, Tucson Weekly, published on August 23, 2001

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Chappy View Post
    $230 billion - total repeal.

    $139 billion - partial repeal of Medicare cost constraints.

    And, the conflict is what?
    ...

    On March 18, 2010, the CBO said that the health care bill would reduce the deficit by $130 billion.

    On March 19, 2010, the CBO said that the exact same health care bill would increase the deficit by $260 billion.

    The only difference between those two estimates was the set of assumptions that was used. The assumptions provided by Democrats led to the former number, while the assumptions provided by Republicans led to the latter.

    Depending on what assumptions you tell the CBO to use, you can get a report that will say pretty much whatever you want. In light of that, I think it's incredibly foolish to blindly credit a number simply because it was produced by the CBO.
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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    It's a shame the Republicans didn't come up with a set of assumptions that caused the CBO to say that total repeal of the health care reform bill wouldn't cost $230 billion. Then, at least, they would not look like total hypocrites for attempting to repeal health care reform and increasing the deficit.
    “Real environmentalists live in cities, and they visit what's left of the wilderness as gently and respectfully as possible.” — Donna Moulton, letter to the editor, Tucson Weekly, published on August 23, 2001

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Chappy View Post
    It's a shame the Republicans didn't come up with a set of assumptions that caused the CBO to say that total repeal of the health care reform bill wouldn't cost $230 billion. Then, at least, they would not look like total hypocrites for attempting to repeal health care reform and increasing the deficit.
    So if Paul Ryan simply asks the CBO to re-run its last analysis using the same assumptions that he had them use in March, you'll suddenly do an about-face on this issue?

    Why is it that you still can't admit that your blind faith in the accuracy of your preferred figure is based on nothing more than the Democrats' assumptions and your own hopes and dreams?
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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    What I think you're missing is that health care reform is now the baseline and anything the Republicans propose is the delta.

    So far Republican proposals, whether full repeal or partial repeal charge billions to the deficit.

    Moreover, full repeal means 32 million Americans who will be getting coverage by 2014 won't be. Donut holes won't be filled this year. People will once again face potentially losing their coverage simply because they got sick. Children will once again be denied coverage because they have pre-existing conditions. On and on.

    CBO numbers reflect the delta in dollars but there are a lot of American lives which hang in the balance.
    Last edited by Chappy; 01-08-11 at 03:23 AM.
    “Real environmentalists live in cities, and they visit what's left of the wilderness as gently and respectfully as possible.” — Donna Moulton, letter to the editor, Tucson Weekly, published on August 23, 2001

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Chappy View Post
    What I think you're missing is that health care reform is now the baseline and anything the Republicans propose is the delta.
    If the bill as enacted in this spring would raise the deficit by $260b under a particular set of assumptions and a de minimis number of the financially significant provisions have taken effect, then a repeal of the bill would necessarily result in budget savings of approximately $260b. I don't understand how you can possibly dispute this. Set aside all issues of politics - it's common sense and basic math.

    So far Republican proposals, whether full repeal or partial repeal charge billions to the deficit.
    ...under the Democrats' hand-picked assumptions, which differ substantially from the Republicans' assumptions. Yet, rather than address the merit of the assumptions, you're just pointing at the first number and saying "LOOK THE CBO SAID IT SO ITS TRUE!!!"

    I've explained why this is absurd a dozen times already - if it didn't work yet, it's not going to work.

    Moreover, full repeal means 32 million Americans who will be getting coverage by 2014 won't be. Donut holes won't be filled this year. People will once again face potentially losing their coverage simply because they got sick. Children will once again be denied coverage because they have pre-existing conditions. On and on.

    CBO numbers reflect the delta in dollars but there are a lot of human livse which hang in the balance.
    So now that you realize that you're wrong on the numbers (which is the topic of this thread), you're trying to make this an argument about the morality of the legislation. We've got 500 threads on that, so I'll pass.
    Last edited by RightinNYC; 01-08-11 at 03:31 AM.
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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Again, the CBO looked at the repeal bill and came out with a price tag: $260 billion in additional national debt. If the Republicans want to change that outcome they must change the repeal bill; it's just that simple.
    “Real environmentalists live in cities, and they visit what's left of the wilderness as gently and respectfully as possible.” — Donna Moulton, letter to the editor, Tucson Weekly, published on August 23, 2001

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Chappy View Post
    Again, the CBO looked at the repeal bill and came out with a price tag: $260 billion in additional national debt. If the Republicans want to change that outcome they must change the repeal bill; it's just that simple.
    Or they could just change the assumptions that the CBO used; it's just that simple.

    You're clearly not understanding how this works, so I'm off to bed.
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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Democrats went through this same dance with the CBO to get the savings they needed in the health care reform bill last year. You're mixing CBO estimates based on specified assumptions with CBO pricing out specific bills. We should be focusing on the latter.
    “Real environmentalists live in cities, and they visit what's left of the wilderness as gently and respectfully as possible.” — Donna Moulton, letter to the editor, Tucson Weekly, published on August 23, 2001

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