Page 4 of 8 FirstFirst ... 23456 ... LastLast
Results 31 to 40 of 76

Thread: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

  1. #31
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Ft. Campbell, KY
    Last Seen
    12-31-14 @ 08:37 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    12,177

    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Look, the CBO was required to give a projection on costs and did so based upon the assumptions given them by Congress. The CBO has NEVER been accurate on any projections 10 years out and in fact are seldom accurate two years or more due to human behavior and activity which cannot be predicted. To buy the CBO projections would be a mistake especially this far out. Paul Ryan put out a GOP healthcare plan. Research it.

    I have no problem with healthcare reform but it has to be market based not govt. based. It will not work any other way. I believe healthcare is a personal responsibility so let the market handle the issue. How did we ever survive without govt. involvement? At worst this is a state and local issue as ER costs are funded by the citizens of an individual state, not the Federal taxpayer. The real problems are ER usage and illegal aliens which has to be solved. Universal Healthcare doesn't solve the ER issue at all as evidenced by the MA program.
    I agree that this CBO study has its flaws due to the fault of Congress, but its still better to go on than nothing.

  2. #32
    Sage
    Conservative's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Houston, TX
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 01:25 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    67,264

    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Wiseone View Post
    I agree that this CBO study has its flaws due to the fault of Congress, but its still better to go on than nothing.
    No, nothing wrong with CBO making a projection but to accept that projection at face value makes one lose credibility if those projections are passed off as fact. Anyone that believes that you can add 40+ million people to the insurance roles at lower expenses is smoking something funny.

  3. #33
    Girthless
    RightinNYC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    New York, NY
    Last Seen
    01-23-11 @ 11:56 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Slightly Conservative
    Posts
    25,894

    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    It's not that the CBO is intrinsically biased or dishonest, the problem with the CBO is in the way it operates. If the CBO will produce a report for any member of Congress based on whatever assumptions that member wishes them to rely on, then their results are only as unbiased or honest as that member.

    In this particular case, the CBO is calculating these figures under the assumption that Congress will allow the scheduled cuts to Medicare reimbursements to take effect. Given that Congress has always averted these cuts with temporary "doc fixes" and shows no inclination to do anything else, anyone with any awareness of how politics works recognizes that these calculations are built on an incredibly flawed foundation.

    IMO, if anyone still wants to argue that these numbers are anything other than carefully crafted gimmicks, they're either unaware of these facts or being deliberately disingenuous.
    People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

  4. #34
    Sage
    pbrauer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Oregon
    Last Seen
    11-27-15 @ 03:31 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Liberal
    Posts
    25,394

    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    The Republicans are standing on history and actual results of CBO accuracy which you and other continue to ignore. The CBO reports its own performance over a 10 year history as being very poor. You even acknowledged that it is unlikely that the cuts and tax increase will happen so what does that do to the estimates? It isn't the CBO fault because they can only use the assumptions given them. If the assumptions are wrong then the projections are wrong. History shows that the CBO has never been right on their 10 projections and that is the point. Using the 230 billion as fact is nothing more than partisan rhetoric that deceives the American people.
    Oh Bull****, the GOP loves the CBO when they agree with them and hates them when they don't. Anyone who runs a large business depends upon projections. Sometimes they are correct and sometimes they are wrong.


  5. #35
    Girthless
    RightinNYC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    New York, NY
    Last Seen
    01-23-11 @ 11:56 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Slightly Conservative
    Posts
    25,894

    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    Oh Bull****, the GOP loves the CBO when they agree with them and hates them when they don't. Anyone who runs a large business depends upon projections. Sometimes they are correct and sometimes they are wrong.
    Businesses rely on projections that are designed to be as accurate as possible. If a company reported projections based on business assumptions that it knew or had reason to believe were faulty, corporate officials would go to jail.

    Again, there is a very significant difference between the CBO's forecasting process and that of a normal analysis that you are missing.
    Last edited by RightinNYC; 01-08-11 at 01:01 AM.
    People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

  6. #36
    Sage

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Last Seen
    Today @ 12:38 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Slightly Liberal
    Posts
    8,351

    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    Oh Bull****, the GOP loves the CBO when they agree with them and hates them when they don't. Anyone who runs a large business depends upon projections. Sometimes they are correct and sometimes they are wrong.
    Not sure if you ever worked in a big corporation. But the people who put projections together at those companies are also tasked with poking at the assumptions. If all somwone is doing is adding up what someone else says will happen you only need low paid clerks. My sense is that the people at CBO are paid as true professionals and thus should be able to at the very least say this is the number but I think there is a problem with X or Y.

  7. #37
    User
    Chappy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    San Francisco
    Last Seen
    04-07-15 @ 01:50 AM
    Lean
    Liberal
    Posts
    2,443
    Blog Entries
    26

    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Government =/= Business.

    CBO numbers serve as the basis for debate. The latest budget revelations prove Republicans don't care about the debt.
    “Real environmentalists live in cities, and they visit what's left of the wilderness as gently and respectfully as possible.” — Donna Moulton, letter to the editor, Tucson Weekly, published on August 23, 2001

  8. #38
    Girthless
    RightinNYC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    New York, NY
    Last Seen
    01-23-11 @ 11:56 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Slightly Conservative
    Posts
    25,894

    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Chappy View Post
    Government =/= Business.
    And nobody said otherwise, so why are you trying to change the subject?

    CBO numbers serve as the basis for debate. The latest budget revelations prove Republicans don't care about the debt.
    It's like you didn't even read the words in my post.

    HYPO TIME!!!!

    Let's say that tomorrow, Boehner asks the CBO to conduct an analysis of the health care bill that assumes that Congress would continually pass doctor fixes, that prescription drug costs would skyrocket, and that a dozen other worst-case scenarios came to pass. Lets say that that CBO report concluded that repealing the health care bill would save $1T

    Now, the moment of truth: Would you say that Democratic criticism of that report would be unfounded? Would you said that Democratic opposition to repeal proved that they didn't care about the debt? Or would you be vigorously making the exact points that I'm making and that you're pretending not to understand in this thread?
    People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

  9. #39
    Guru
    repeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    California
    Last Seen
    07-15-14 @ 12:06 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    3,445

    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    Businesses rely on projections that are designed to be as accurate as possible. If a company reported projections based on business assumptions that it knew or had reason to believe were faulty, corporate officials would go to jail.

    Again, there is a very significant difference between the CBO's forecasting process and that of a normal analysis that you are missing.
    Well, the CBO caters to the needs of politicians...how accurate can you expect it to be?

    At the same time, I agree with Wiseone, its all we have, and should be a best case scenario for us. Ideally, the CBO could revise their estimates to something more realistic, and also provide a worst case scenario as well, so we have a range of options to choose from. I don't know why the CBO doesn't automatically do that....
    Veni. Vidi. Vici.
    -Gaius Julius Caesar
    The Only Thing to Fear is Fear Itself.
    -Franklin Delano Roosevelt

  10. #40
    Girthless
    RightinNYC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    New York, NY
    Last Seen
    01-23-11 @ 11:56 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Slightly Conservative
    Posts
    25,894

    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by repeter View Post
    Well, the CBO caters to the needs of politicians...how accurate can you expect it to be?
    That's my point. Yet despite that, many in the media and popular culture continue to trot out the old saw about how CBO reports are by their very nature unbiased and unimpeachable.

    At the same time, I agree with Wiseone, its all we have, and should be a best case scenario for us.
    How exactly does a wildly implausible and inaccurate projection help us at all?

    Ideally, the CBO could revise their estimates to something more realistic, and also provide a worst case scenario as well, so we have a range of options to choose from. I don't know why the CBO doesn't automatically do that....
    Because that's not the CBO's mission. The plan you're describing sounds like an improvement, but then it wouldn't be the CBO...
    People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Page 4 of 8 FirstFirst ... 23456 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •