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Thread: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

  1. #11
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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    it's a matter of simple, if astronomical, arithmetic

    a quarter T double counted

    a quarter T doc fix off budget

    125B in overhead ignored by presidential fiat

    annoyed?

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Wiseone View Post
    Until you present a better way of measuring a bill's cost in the future, I'm going to stick with the CBO estimates. "I don't like their numbers for political reasons" is not a good enough reason to devalue the value of the CBO.

    I'm especially annoyed by your willingness to call something wrong when you don't know whats right.
    Translation: I know the Democrats gave the CBO bogus numbers to crunch, making the results the CBO ended up with very suspect, but I don't care, I'll stick with the CBO's bogus numbers, TYVM.

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Whovian View Post
    Translation: I know the Democrats gave the CBO bogus numbers to crunch, making the results the CBO ended up with very suspect, but I don't care, I'll stick with the CBO's bogus numbers, TYVM.
    I trust the CBO to have some standards even if it isn't always perfect, besides YOU OFFER NO ALTERNATIVE. If there was an alternative with math and data to back it up, I'd listen.

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Wiseone View Post
    I trust the CBO to have some standards even if it isn't always perfect, besides YOU OFFER NO ALTERNATIVE. If there was an alternative with math and data to back it up, I'd listen.
    If a Taco Bell served you a plate of dog ****, and said that was all they had, would you eat it because there was no alternative?

    It's not a matter of an alternative. It's a matter of 'if their source data is **** and suspect, their findings will be **** and suspect'. Doesnt matter to me if it's the Dems or the GOp... **** in, **** out.

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Wiseone View Post
    I trust the CBO to have some standards even if it isn't always perfect, besides YOU OFFER NO ALTERNATIVE. If there was an alternative with math and data to back it up, I'd listen.
    Why don't you research the accuracy of the CBO especially on projections beyond two years? The Democrats are claiming that this will increase the debt by 143 billion over 10 years or 14 billion a year. They estimate that tax increases and Medicare cuts will generate those savings. There is no evidence that there will be that kind of tax revenue increase or that the politicians have the stomach to cut Medicare costs yet you buy the rhetoric. What happens if you are wrong?

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Wiseone
    I trust the CBO to have some standards even if it isn't always perfect, besides YOU OFFER NO ALTERNATIVE. If there was an alternative with math and data to back it up, I'd listen.
    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Why don't you research the accuracy of the CBO especially on projections beyond two years? The Democrats are claiming that this will increase the debt by 143 billion over 10 years or 14 billion a year. They estimate that tax increases and Medicare cuts will generate those savings. There is no evidence that there will be that kind of tax revenue increase or that the politicians have the stomach to cut Medicare costs yet you buy the rhetoric. What happens if you are wrong?
    Hey! If he's happy eating dog ****, let him eat dog ****.

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Wiseone View Post
    I trust the CBO to have some standards even if it isn't always perfect, besides YOU OFFER NO ALTERNATIVE. If there was an alternative with math and data to back it up, I'd listen.
    This from the NY Times today

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/07/us...er=rss&emc=rss

    WASHINGTON — The nonpartisan budget scorekeepers in Congress said on Thursday that the Republican plan to repeal President Obama’s health care law would add $230 billion to federal budget deficits over the next decade, intensifying the first legislative fight of the new session and highlighting the challenge Republicans face in pursuing their agenda.

    The new House speaker, John A. Boehner, flatly rejected the report, saying it was based largely on chicanery by Democrats.

    Mr. Boehner’s dismissal of the report by the Congressional Budget Office, at his first formal news conference as speaker, was the latest salvo in the battle over the health care law. White House officials on Thursday said they were stepping up efforts to defend the law, with a new rapid-response operation to rebut Republican claims and to deploy supporters to talk about the benefits of the law.

    But Mr. Boehner’s remarks held wider implications, effectively putting him on a war footing with the independent analysts whose calculations generally guide discussions about the projected cost or savings of any legislation.

    “I do not believe that repealing the job-killing health care law will increase the deficit,” he said.

    “C.B.O. is entitled to their opinion,” he said, but he said Democrats had manipulated the rules established for determining the cost of a program under the 1974 Budget Act.

    “C.B.O. can only provide a score based on the assumptions that are given to them,” Mr. Boehner said. “And if you go back and look at the health care bill and the assumptions that were given to them, you see all of the double-counting that went on.”

    But the analysis released by the budget office on Thursday was based on the health care repeal bill that House Republicans introduced on Wednesday. And it highlighted the difficult position that Republicans are in as they try to address what they insist are the top two priorities of voters who elected them in November: cutting the deficit and undoing the health care law.

    According to the budget office, those goals are contradictory.

    The budget office estimated that the health care law, including education provisions, would reduce deficits over 10 years by $143 billion. Tax increases and cuts in projected Medicare spending would more than offset the cost of extending health insurance to millions of Americans. The budget office projected that the law would result in even bigger savings beyond 2019.

    Republicans have said they do not believe that many of the Medicare cuts will ever take hold. They say that government subsidies to help people buy health insurance will prove far costlier than the budget office has predicted, and that the Democrats wrote the law to mask the steep future costs of some provisions, like a new long-term-care insurance program.

    The budget office did not comment on Mr. Boehner’s remarks. Douglas W. Elmendorf, its director, has frequently said his office applies the longstanding budget rules. He says it uses its own professional expertise, as well as consulting with outside experts, to derive its projections, which represent the “middle of the distribution of likely outcomes.”
    This presents quite a different picture than the article in the previously cited source.

    Notice that Boehner gives away the basis of his entire argument : the CBO figures are simply contrary to his self imposed belief system.

    “I do not believe that repealing the job-killing health care law will increase the deficit,” he said.

    So Boehner is willing to risk increasing the deficit by hundreds of billions of dollars and cutting over 30 millions off of health care simply because of what HE BELIEVES. A belief system has supplanted the study from the very office that Congress depends on for its facts and figures. Somehow a belief system based on narrow partisan ideology has supplanted everything else and is the trump card to be played when all else fails. And because some here worship before the same altar as the Boner does, you too are willing to ignore the non-partisan CBO and roll the dice to the tune of $230 billion dollars. And at the same time you are willing to bitch and moan about other programs adding to the deficit.

    The hypocrisy is amazing.
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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Why don't you research the accuracy of the CBO especially on projections beyond two years? The Democrats are claiming that this will increase the debt by 143 billion over 10 years or 14 billion a year. They estimate that tax increases and Medicare cuts will generate those savings. There is no evidence that there will be that kind of tax revenue increase or that the politicians have the stomach to cut Medicare costs yet you buy the rhetoric. What happens if you are wrong?
    I'm not advocating any policy, or one political party over the other. I'm simply saying that the CBO is a non-partisan professional agency and since they work for Congress they do their studies as estimates based on Congress' direction. The CBO, although it has a broader directive to conduct studies on things its professionals think will be relevant, it cannot conduct a study on every single possible future Congressional action. There's just too many variables.

    I agree that the CBO should in this case conduct an additional study of the same question while assuming there are no medicare cuts or tax increases. But remember the CBO works for Congress, although they have some discretion when they have the time to conduct studies their professionals think are relevant they are also required to drop everything if Congress comes to them and says "We are doing X, Y, and Z conduct a study on the impact of the repeal with those variables." Of course Congress has no obligation to do X, Y, and Z.

    And no I don't see much prospect of medicare cuts or tax increases in the near either.

    The ONLY point I am trying to make is that for its potential flaws the CBO study is a far more accurate picture of the future than simply nothing, BY DEFAULT. Its like if two shooters were aiming at a bulls-eye and while one hits high and to the left of the target, the other doesn't even fire. Yes the first shooter missed since the other guy didn't even fire the first one could have missed by a mile and his performance was still better. The Republicans in this case are simply saying "No its wrong, I don't believe that." While offering no better answer, no better numbers, no better data, and in fact are offering no answer, no numbers, and no data to address the question of "How much will this cost." How can you criticize a study as being inaccurate WHEN YOU CONDUCT NO STUDY OF YOUR OWN, just what are you comparing it to?

    While the CBO's study could be better, and address more variables, at least it is a platform to stand on. Unlike the Reps in this case which are attempting to stand on air and the ridiculous premise of "Well they aren't perfect therefore we must be right by default and without even playing the game."

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Wiseone View Post
    I'm not advocating any policy, or one political party over the other. I'm simply saying that the CBO is a non-partisan professional agency and since they work for Congress they do their studies as estimates based on Congress' direction. The CBO, although it has a broader directive to conduct studies on things its professionals think will be relevant, it cannot conduct a study on every single possible future Congressional action. There's just too many variables.

    I agree that the CBO should in this case conduct an additional study of the same question while assuming there are no medicare cuts or tax increases. But remember the CBO works for Congress, although they have some discretion when they have the time to conduct studies their professionals think are relevant they are also required to drop everything if Congress comes to them and says "We are doing X, Y, and Z conduct a study on the impact of the repeal with those variables." Of course Congress has no obligation to do X, Y, and Z.

    And no I don't see much prospect of medicare cuts or tax increases in the near either.

    The ONLY point I am trying to make is that for its potential flaws the CBO study is a far more accurate picture of the future than simply nothing, BY DEFAULT. Its like if two shooters were aiming at a bulls-eye and while one hits high and to the left of the target, the other doesn't even fire. Yes the first shooter missed since the other guy didn't even fire the first one could have missed by a mile and his performance was still better. The Republicans in this case are simply saying "No its wrong, I don't believe that." While offering no better answer, no better numbers, no better data, and in fact are offering no answer, no numbers, and no data to address the question of "How much will this cost." How can you criticize a study as being inaccurate WHEN YOU CONDUCT NO STUDY OF YOUR OWN, just what are you comparing it to?

    While the CBO's study could be better, and address more variables, at least it is a platform to stand on. Unlike the Reps in this case which are attempting to stand on air and the ridiculous premise of "Well they aren't perfect therefore we must be right by default and without even playing the game."
    The Republicans are standing on history and actual results of CBO accuracy which you and other continue to ignore. The CBO reports its own performance over a 10 year history as being very poor. You even acknowledged that it is unlikely that the cuts and tax increase will happen so what does that do to the estimates? It isn't the CBO fault because they can only use the assumptions given them. If the assumptions are wrong then the projections are wrong. History shows that the CBO has never been right on their 10 projections and that is the point. Using the 230 billion as fact is nothing more than partisan rhetoric that deceives the American people.

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    Re: Congressional Budget Office Consistently Wrong on Health Care Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    The Republicans are standing on history and actual results of CBO accuracy which you and other continue to ignore. The CBO reports its own performance over a 10 year history as being very poor. You even acknowledged that it is unlikely that the cuts and tax increase will happen so what does that do to the estimates? It isn't the CBO fault because they can only use the assumptions given them. If the assumptions are wrong then the projections are wrong. History shows that the CBO has never been right on their 10 projections and that is the point. Using the 230 billion as fact is nothing more than partisan rhetoric that deceives the American people.
    So can we expect a GOP led effort to defund the CBO for poor performance? Or is this just smoke and mirrors with "we listen to them when they agree with us and ignore them when they don't" type of thing?

    So where are your numbers?
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