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Thread: Wikileaks show WMD Hunt Continued in Iraq-With Surprising Results

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    Re: Wikileaks show WMD Hunt Continued in Iraq-With Surprising Results

    Quote Originally Posted by buck View Post
    You do realize that many times different individuals in the intelligence community will reach different conclusions? In other words, some people in the community reached the conclusion that the intelligence was unreliable. Others (most) reached the conclusion that the intelligence was accurate. Bush and most of his admin believed the consenus opinion that was presented.

    You seem to want to live in this ideal little world where the intelligence will only point in one conclusion. However, this is not the way intelligence works. It didn't work that was with NK. It's not working that way with Iran. Why would you think Iraq should be any different? The majority opinion in the intelligence community was that he had WMD. Added to the fact that he was ignoring UN resolution after UN resolution and was acting as if he had WMD programs (apparently to fool Iran, etc) and you get to the point where invasion is going to happen.
    I realize fully, but the NIE clearly states these people were doubted, and gave very good rationale for doubting them, like al Libi couldn't knwo what he reported. Yet, Bush did not present it that way, so how can it be argued he acted in good faith based on the intel?

    I'm not the one living in an ideal world. Nor am I the one making excuses for the person who simply did not act on the actual intel, but sought to use doubted intel, pretending it was the actual intel. The fact is the NIE contained no new intel in it, and did not conclude Saddam was growing and gathering. Remove the doubted intel, and you cannot honestly make the claims Bush made.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Wikileaks show WMD Hunt Continued in Iraq-With Surprising Results

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    I realize fully, but the NIE clearly states these people were doubted, and gave very good rationale for doubting them, like al Libi couldn't knwo what he reported. Yet, Bush did not present it that way, so how can it be argued he acted in good faith based on the intel?

    I'm not the one living in an ideal world. Nor am I the one making excuses for the person who simply did not act on the actual intel, but sought to use doubted intel, pretending it was the actual intel. The fact is the NIE contained no new intel in it, and did not conclude Saddam was growing and gathering. Remove the doubted intel, and you cannot honestly make the claims Bush made.
    Remove the doubted intel of nearly any major decision, and nothing would ever get done. That seems to be what you are missing. You have doubted intelligence in NK and Iran. When a country (such as NK, Iran) has reasons to hide what's happening, you will almost always have intelligence that is doubted by some. You need to look at the whole of the intelligence, both doubted and confirmed and make a decision based on that.

    It's not so much that I can't. It's more that I don't want to. So, if you want to know why a majority of intelligence analysts and agencies believed that Iraq had WMD, ask them.

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    Re: Wikileaks show WMD Hunt Continued in Iraq-With Surprising Results

    Quote Originally Posted by buck View Post
    Remove the doubted intel of nearly any major decision, and nothing would ever get done. That seems to be what you are missing. You have doubted intelligence in NK and Iran. When a country (such as NK, Iran) has reasons to hide what's happening, you will almost always have intelligence that is doubted by some. You need to look at the whole of the intelligence, both doubted and confirmed and make a decision based on that.

    It's not so much that I can't. It's more that I don't want to. So, if you want to know why a majority of intelligence analysts and agencies believed that Iraq had WMD, ask them.
    Right, we don't act on material we doubt, which is why no one acted before. And if we want to act, and not be honest we use doubted intel, pretend it is prue, and act.

    And the intel concerning NK has already been admitted to as false, that we really didn't know what we saisd we knew. Supposition, guessing, is simply not the same as actual fact or evidence. And we should not act on a guess.

    And the intel agencies have spoken. They did not believe Saddam had an active program. They did not believe growing and gathering. Like most, they believed he had some left over wmds, and that he was not inclined to use the left overs, if they were still opperational (they mostly weren't btw), unless we invaded. If Bush were honest, and telling the truth, this is what he would have said becasue that is what the non-doubted intel said.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Wikileaks show WMD Hunt Continued in Iraq-With Surprising Results

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Right, we don't act on material we doubt, which is why no one acted before. And if we want to act, and not be honest we use doubted intel, pretend it is prue, and act.

    And the intel concerning NK has already been admitted to as false, that we really didn't know what we saisd we knew. Supposition, guessing, is simply not the same as actual fact or evidence. And we should not act on a guess.

    And the intel agencies have spoken. They did not believe Saddam had an active program. They did not believe growing and gathering. Like most, they believed he had some left over wmds, and that he was not inclined to use the left overs, if they were still opperational (they mostly weren't btw), unless we invaded. If Bush were honest, and telling the truth, this is what he would have said becasue that is what the non-doubted intel said.
    Here, go take it up with this guy. I'm sure with all of your years of experience, you can correct him and show him the error of his ways.

    https://www.cia.gov/news-information...r11282003.html

    Fundamentally, the Intelligence Community increasingly will be in danger of not connecting the dots until the dots have become a straight line.
    The NIE judged with high confidence that Iraq had chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in excess of the 150 km limit imposed by the UN Security Council, and with moderate confidence that Iraq did not have nuclear weapons.
    Last edited by buck; 11-23-10 at 02:53 PM.

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    Re: Wikileaks show WMD Hunt Continued in Iraq-With Surprising Results

    Quote Originally Posted by buck View Post
    Here, go take it up with this guy. I'm sure with all of your years of experience, you can correct him and show him the error of his ways.

    https://www.cia.gov/news-information...r11282003.html
    You should actually read it, as it doesn't dispute me. Again, it is not the NIE I have fault with. it is the president's portral of it, his lie. The intel does not say growing and gathering. Does not say there were stockpiles, and does not say Saddam was working with al Qaeda. Bush did, or his people did, and Bush did not express the doubts in the intel.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Wikileaks show WMD Hunt Continued in Iraq-With Surprising Results

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    The intel does not say growing and gathering. Does not say there were stockpiles.
    Yeah... right... They didn't believe Iraq had, and was developing, banned weapons, including WMDs.

    The only government in the world that claimed that Iraq was not working on, and did not have, biological and chemical weapons or prohibited missile systems was in Baghdad.
    Last edited by buck; 11-23-10 at 04:20 PM.

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    Re: Wikileaks show WMD Hunt Continued in Iraq-With Surprising Results

    Quote Originally Posted by buck View Post
    Yeah... right... They didn't believe Iraq had, and was developing, banned weapons, including WMDs.
    Read your article. They did not claim Saddam was gorwing and gathering. Bush did. You're own article says there was nothing new it the NIE. Again, as I have said. Only Bush and his people used the doubted intel and treated as if it were accepted.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Wikileaks show WMD Hunt Continued in Iraq-With Surprising Results

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Read your article. They did not claim Saddam was gorwing and gathering. Bush did. You're own article says there was nothing new it the NIE. Again, as I have said. Only Bush and his people used the doubted intel and treated as if it were accepted.
    You are right, it is not claimed that he was "Growing and Gathering". Instead it simply states that they had high confidence that Saddam was working on biological and chemical weapons. It further states that it was believed that he had bioilogical and chemical weapons.

    It's the same thing, just worded differently. Feel free to argue it with him.

    The NIE judged with high confidence that Iraq had chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in excess of the 150 km limit imposed by the UN Security Council, and with moderate confidence that Iraq did not have nuclear weapons. These judgments were essentially the same conclusions reached by the United Nations and by a wide array of intelligence services—friendly and unfriendly alike. The only government in the world that claimed that Iraq was not working on, and did not have, biological and chemical weapons or prohibited missile systems was in Baghdad.
    Last edited by buck; 11-23-10 at 04:37 PM.

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    Re: Wikileaks show WMD Hunt Continued in Iraq-With Surprising Results

    Quote Originally Posted by buck View Post
    You are right, it is not claimed that he was "Growing and Gathering". Instead it simply states that they had high confidence that Saddam was working on biological and chemical weapons. It further states that it was believed that he had bioilogical and chemical weapons.

    It's the same thing, just worded differently. Feel free to argue it with him.
    No, it's really not. Growing and gathering says that he is amassing, successful, and becoming a larger threat. The intel doesn't say that. Also, no one states they believed Saddam didn't have anything. We knew he had some left over wmds, but also knew his ability to store and make was compromised. The NIE reports that as well. And the NIE also reports Saddam was unlikley to use whatever he did have wwihtout us invading.

    So, the problem was not the NIE or the CIA, but the lies Bush told.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Wikileaks show WMD Hunt Continued in Iraq-With Surprising Results

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    No, it's really not. Growing and gathering says that he is amassing, successful, and becoming a larger threat. The intel doesn't say that. Also, no one states they believed Saddam didn't have anything. We knew he had some left over wmds, but also knew his ability to store and make was compromised. The NIE reports that as well. And the NIE also reports Saddam was unlikley to use whatever he did have wwihtout us invading.

    So, the problem was not the NIE or the CIA, but the lies Bush told.
    Then you can talk to Stu Cohen and tell him he is wrong. Contrary to what the acting chairman of the NIE in 2006 stated, it was not claimed by all governments, except the one located in Baghdad, that Iraq was developing chem and bio weapons. While you're at it, you can also tell him that the NIE was not, as he claimed, highly confident that Saddam had WMDs.

    You can't, as you seem to want to do, only look at the conflicting information. You have to look at the entirety of the information. The entirety of the information, according to Stu, led most of the governments around the world to conclude that Saddam was develping WMD and other banned weapons.

    In case you haven't noticed, I really am telling you to take it up with him, because I am not too interested in the conversation anymore. When the NIE chairman states that it was believed by the NIE and most governments that Iraq was developing WMDs and you continue to claim that the NIE didn't say that, I just see little point to continuing....
    Last edited by buck; 11-24-10 at 02:05 PM.

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