Excerpted from A Turning Point For Democrats? IT'S TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE REPUBLICAN WAVE HAS SUBSIDED.
by Charlie Cook, The National Journal Magazine
, Saturday, July 31, 2010
or the weeks of July 12-18 and July 19-25, the Gallup Organization's weekly aggregation of daily tracking polls showed Democrats ahead among all registered voters on the generic congressional ballot test question by 6 points (49 percent to 43 percent) and 4 points (48 percent to 44 percent), respectively.
Gallup noted that this was the first time that either party has held an advantage of this size for two consecutive weeks. In the 21 weeks that Gallup has asked the generic ballot test question this year, the two parties have averaged a tie.
What we are looking for is whether either party breaks out of that range [49 percent to 43 percent] and begins to consistently record an advantage, with "consistently" certainly defined as more than two weeks in a row.
For now, people will have to just sit tight, wait for next week's Gallup release, and watch how other reputable pollsters weigh in.