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Thread: Republicans Jump Out To Historic Lead In Gallup Generic Ballot

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    Re: Republicans Jump Out To Historic Lead In Gallup Generic Ballot

    Quote Originally Posted by zimmer View Post
    For Presidential politics we need to restrict voting for our candidates to registered Republicans only in the primaries..

    McCain (RINO) won, by his own admission the night he captured the R nomination, with the help of independents and Libs.

    Just think, we're only 18-months from the first primaries.

    .
    So you think that by restricting the primary to only Republicans, you'll win over independents and liberals in the general Presidential election?

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    Re: Republicans Jump Out To Historic Lead In Gallup Generic Ballot

    Quote Originally Posted by samsmart View Post
    So you think that by restricting the primary to only Republicans, you'll win over independents and liberals in the general Presidential election?
    And another McCain would help us?
    Climate, changes. It takes a particularly uneducated population to buy into the idea that it's their fault climate is changing and further political solutions can fix it.



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    Re: Republicans Jump Out To Historic Lead In Gallup Generic Ballot

    Quote Originally Posted by zimmer View Post
    For Presidential politics we need to restrict voting for our candidates to registered Republicans only in the primaries..

    McCain (RINO) won, by his own admission the night he captured the R nomination, with the help of independents and Libs.

    Just think, we're only 18-months from the first primaries.

    .
    Here is a list of all open Republican Party primaries/caucuses: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Massachusetts (semi-open), Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (semi-open), New Jersey (semi-open), North Carolina (semi-open), North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island (semi-open), South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and finally Wisconsin.

    The bolded states are those that can be described as liberal, while the rest are either swing states or solidly conservative. The ten states I bolded account for 386 total delegates of a total 2,171 delegates. While having all closed primaries may help I don't think they make nearly as much of a difference as you give them credit for.

    The bigger problem with the Republican Party primaries is that most of them are some form of winner take all. Because of this the will of the primary voter will not be properly represented. An example of this hindering the Republican nomination process is the 2008 California primary. Even though John McCain only received 42% of the total he received 155 of a total 170 delegates. Despite not even winning a majority of the votes in California McCain received about 90% of the delegates. This problem can be seen in other states such as New York, Florida, Missouri, and New Jersey, which all carry large delegate counts and use statewide WTA.

    This problem is only compounded for Republicans when a majority of the larger states are more moderate/liberal leaning. Given that a more moderate candidate will have a better chance to win plurality in these states, it then also gives them a better chance to clinch the nomination. Thus you end up with a candidate like John McCain rather than a "true" conservative like what conservatives want. Until Republicans do something to fix this problem I have no doubts that "moderates' will continue to represent them.

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    Re: Republicans Jump Out To Historic Lead In Gallup Generic Ballot

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    And another McCain would help us?
    Well, what you're effectively saying is that the American people voted for a liberal President because the Republican candidate wasn't conservative enough. Why would the American people choose a liberal President if they want more conservative policies?

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    Re: Republicans Jump Out To Historic Lead In Gallup Generic Ballot

    Just my observation, but I think Obama was elected for his more Libertarian leaning positions on social issues. People were also getting tired of hearing a guy try to say "The fundimentals of our economy are strong" with a straight face while Wall Street pops the anxiety pills. It could also have something to do with the opinion polls related to Iraq. Public opinion polls still show to this day that Americans are not in favor of the Iraq war... But I guess those war polls don't really matter when you are a Republican.
    Vote John Schnatter (Papa John) 2012!

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    Re: Republicans Jump Out To Historic Lead In Gallup Generic Ballot

    I think a Republican win in the House (winning the Senate is very unlikely) would be a good thing for the country. The last time we had a Democratic president and a Republican Congress (Clinton's presidency), we saw a significant drop in federal spending as a portion of GDP (source). A Democratic president with a Democratic Congress is too eager to launch into new entitlements. However, a Republican president, especially one with a Republican Congress, is too eager to expand the military and get the country into wars, which then increases federal spending. But a Republican Congress lacks the power to deploy US troops without presidential support while a Democratic president lacks the power to force through more big spending measures without Congressional support. That's a win-win for advocates of small government.

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    Re: Republicans Jump Out To Historic Lead In Gallup Generic Ballot

    Quote Originally Posted by Civil1z@tion View Post
    I think a Republican win in the House (winning the Senate is very unlikely) would be a good thing for the country. The last time we had a Democratic president and a Republican Congress (Clinton's presidency), we saw a significant drop in federal spending as a portion of GDP (source). A Democratic president with a Democratic Congress is too eager to launch into new entitlements. However, a Republican president, especially one with a Republican Congress, is too eager to expand the military and get the country into wars, which then increases federal spending. But a Republican Congress lacks the power to deploy US troops without presidential support while a Democratic president lacks the power to force through more big spending measures without Congressional support. That's a win-win for advocates of small government.
    I don't know if that would be all that great for our country. Remember, while the Democrats are likely to tax and spend, the GOP is likely to borrow and spend. The only problem is that we've already borrowed too much to pay for 3 new wars. We have to pay it down. And while we can reduce entitlements to a certain level, that level won't be enough to pay down the government debt. Which is why I think we should also increase taxes in certain area designed solely to pay down the government debt. Which, if anybody is likely to do, it's the Democrats.

    Do taxes suck? Well, yeah they do. However, we need to pay taxes for our government to operate, and to pay down the debt our government incurs.

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    Re: Republicans Jump Out To Historic Lead In Gallup Generic Ballot

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    Here's a pretty cool tool. It doesn't use historical data from generic ballot v. actual result, but takes the 2008 vote differential and lets you plug in generic ballot numbers.

    House of Representatives Swingometer - UnlikelyVoter.com

    Gallup has some historical data:

    Generic Ballot Provides Clues for 2010 Vote

    The 49%-43% number isn't a two-party figure, but we can do some rough estimates from that.

    2008 was a 55-45 two party split, so if we ended up with a 47-53 split this year, according to the swingometer that would translate into a 45 seat Republican gain, giving them control of the house 223-212. According to Gallup, that would translate into 227-208 control for the Reps.

    I'd be very surprised if it actually ends up like that.
    But don't forget, Gallup's generic ballot, because it uses registered voters rather than likely ones, has historically always favored the Democrats more than the actual results. So a tie would mean that in reality the GOP is ahead... and a 6-point GOP lead is huge. Especially with enthusiasm on their side by 15 points, which would lean the turnout their way even more. Granted, this week's particular poll is probably just a bump that the Democrats will recover from soon. Still, the GOP has a lot going for them.

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    Re: Republicans Jump Out To Historic Lead In Gallup Generic Ballot

    Quote Originally Posted by zimmer View Post
    For Presidential politics we need to restrict voting for our candidates to registered Republicans only in the primaries..

    McCain (RINO) won, by his own admission the night he captured the R nomination, with the help of independents and Libs.

    Just think, we're only 18-months from the first primaries.

    .
    O i get it, even your own candidates aren't your fault, its still the Dems and independants. Somehow I'd imagine that when that same process resulted in a win for Bush in the Presidental race there was no complaining then, I'm sure it was a great Republican victory. So what I'm gathering from this is that Republicans never lose its the dems and indies that make them...

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    Re: Republicans Jump Out To Historic Lead In Gallup Generic Ballot

    Quote Originally Posted by Wiseone View Post
    O i get it, even your own candidates aren't your fault, its still the Dems and independants. Somehow I'd imagine that when that same process resulted in a win for Bush in the Presidental race there was no complaining then, I'm sure it was a great Republican victory. So what I'm gathering from this is that Republicans never lose its the dems and indies that make them...
    Well, technically, the same process didn't really result in a win for Bush... But I know what you mean.

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