Waterloo | FrumForum
This guy thinks the GOP lost big. Which is weird, because he claims to be a conservative!
I agree in general premise with the article. I think the GOP will make some gains in 2010 and 2012, but a veto-proof majority is out of the question in 2010. In 2012, you could conceivably get a Republican president back in the white house, but at this particular moment I just don't see a GOP candidate that can oust Barack Obama. The current frontrunners have some issues that will hurt them. But hey, some conservatives here can probably come up with more on that than I can.Conservatives and Republicans today suffered their most crushing legislative defeat since the 1960s.
It’s hard to exaggerate the magnitude of the disaster. Conservatives may cheer themselves that they’ll compensate for today’s expected vote with a big win in the November 2010 elections. But:
(1) It’s a good bet that conservatives are over-optimistic about November – by then the economy will have improved and the immediate goodies in the healthcare bill will be reaching key voting blocs.
(2) So what? Legislative majorities come and go. This healthcare bill is forever. A win in November is very poor compensation for this debacle now.
In 2012 you'll also have what the author discussed. The economy will be better off than it is now, (probably) and some of the benefits of the legislation will already be on the streets, while the big scary socialist parts are still two years away. I think this bill was strategically designed to help in the 2012 election to make sure Democrats keep the white house.
The constitutional challenge isn't going to work. Procedurally, it is airtight. The main bill is already passed, with a proper majority vote in both the House and Senate. The Supreme Court doesn't have the grounds to challenge reconciliation - the House and Senate get to set their own rules. If the House and Senate rules say reconciliation passes, then reconciliation passes.
On constitutional grounds, you're going to have an awfully hard time saying this bill is unconstitutional while still hanging on to medicare as allowable. There aren't any provisions in this bill that don't have some precedent, and our current Supreme Court isn't going to rule for ending Medicare.
Even if the GOP regains a majority or supermajority, repealing this bill is harder than passing it. You'll have to stand in front of your constituents and tell them why you're re-allowing pre-existing condition drops, rescission, and kicking under-26 folks back off their parents' healthcare. That would just swing the pendulum right back to the Democrats.
The bill is going to stay. I got $20 that says it stays long enough for the main provisions to activate in 2014.