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CBO Numbers [have just come out]

Ockham said:
What deficit reduction?
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CBO estimates are $130 billion in the first ten years, and $1.2 trillion in the next ten years.

Well, that's exactly what happened already... without the health care bust.
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That was to clean up the mess left by the last administration.

National Debt Up $2 Trillion on Obama's Watch - Political Hotsheet - CBS News
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I think they should cut our military spending in half to start paying down our debt. I've never thought we could sustain our imperialistic spending levels that Bush doubled.
 
How about just calculating the additional cost if you count the new people who will get this subsidy because of the immigration bill outlined today.
 
To those on both sides of this issue, thanx for all your intelligent answers. I had an ulterior motive when I posted this, and that was to see if members of Debate Politics, especially those on the right, could debate this better than members of Congress could, and, with the exception of just a couple, you have not disappointed.

Here is the problem - You have people in Congress who voted for Bush's medicare program, which the CBO scored as adding almost 400 billion to the deficit, having press conferences in which they parrot talking points, while acting as they really care about deficits.

Have no doubt that some in Congress are ruled by nothing but politics, and political power, rather than logical arguments. In fact, the political outweighed the logical to the point that the logical got lost.

If Obama wins this, and we are saddled with this health care bill, many Republicans will be just as responsible as Democrats for it happening. Had some of my Debate Politics colleagues on the right been on Capitol Hill, instead of these Bozos, I believe that there would be a much better chance of defeating Obamacare. It is plain and simple that some Republicans have been in Congress too long, and need to be replaced with the kind of critical thinkers the GOP used to have. I can't speak for the Democrats, since I am not one, but I suspect the same on the left as on the right.

You know, this issue could have been won. It may still be won, but if it is, don't give credit to those who screamed "Socialism", "death panels", and other bits of pablum puke. For it is because of many of them that this vote is so close, and it will be because of many of them if this horrible bill ends up passing. Americans are not stupid. They want real reasons to vote the way they do, and as long as you provide them with crappy answers and even crappier talking points, they will be driven to the other side, still ignorant of "THE MESSAGE" that should have been provided instead of political talking points. I sincerely believe that this is what happened here. Bombarded by the ridiculous, they never saw the message in the middle of all that white noise.

Wherever you are Mr. Buckley, and the rest of the Republican critical thinkers, we miss you more than you will ever know.

As for a few of you DP'ers on the right, who posted so well here, you might consider running for office. You know who you are, and you would have my vote. Let's keep this discussion going. It is a good one. But right now, I just want to say that there is a reason that Debate Politics is one of the best forums on the net. The reasons are you, as amply demonstrated here in this very thread. :)
 
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The Prof said:
half the "deficit reduction" comes from "savings" supposedly found in school loans

there is a quarter tril doc fix, not paid for

House passes Medicare 'doc fix,' 243-183 - TheHill.com

there is a double counting of another quarter T, says cbo

Budget Office Rebuts Democratic Claims on Medicare (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

there's 10 years of taxes vs 6 of benefits

RealClearPolitics - Senator Ben Nelson on the Senate Health Care Bill

cbo scored what leadership put in front of it, naturally

meanwhile, bay state treasurer tim cahill, overseer of romney-care, says america will go bankrupt if it passes this bill

Tim Cahill slams Barack Obama, Dems on health care - BostonHerald.com

pretty much all america knows it

you can't expand m and m by tens of millions while simultaneously trimming it massively

as certain as gravity

the only reason to pass this monstrosity is to try to rescue obama's dead presidency

and even that won't work

party on, progressives

rapidly o'er the precipice
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danarhea said:
To those on both sides of this issue, thanx for all your intelligent answers. I had an ulterior motive when I posted this, and that was to see if members of Debate Politics, especially those on the right, could debate this better than members of Congress could, and, with the exception of just a couple, you have not disappointed.

Here is the problem - You have people in Congress who voted for Bush's medicare program, which the CBO scored as adding almost 400 billion to the deficit, having press conferences in which they parrot talking points, while acting as they really care about deficits.

Have no doubt that some in Congress are ruled by nothing but politics, and political power, rather than logical arguments. In fact, the political outweighed the logical to the point that the logical got lost.

If Obama wins this, and we are saddled with this health care bill, many Republicans will be just as responsible as Democrats for it happening. Had some of my Debate Politics colleagues on the right been on Capitol Hill, instead of these Bozos, I believe that there would be a much better chance of defeating Obamacare. It is plain and simple that some Republicans have been in Congress too long, and need to be replaced with the kind of critical thinkers the GOP used to have. I can't speak for the Democrats, since I am not one, but I suspect the same on the left as on the right.

You know, this issue could have been won. It may still be won, but if it is, don't give credit to those who screamed "Socialism", "death panels", and other bits of pablum puke. For it is because of many of them that this vote is so close, and it will be because of many of them if this horrible bill ends up passing. Americans are not stupid. They want real reasons to vote the way they do, and as long as you provide them with crappy answers and even crappier talking points, they will be driven to the other side, still ignorant of "THE MESSAGE" that should have been provided instead of political talking points. I sincerely believe that this is what happened here. Bombarded by the ridiculous, they never saw the message in the middle of all that white noise.

Wherever you are Mr. Buckley, and the rest of the Republican critical thinkers, we miss you more than you will ever know.

As for a few of you DP'ers on the right, who posted so well here, you might consider running for office. You know who you are, and you would have my vote. Let's keep this discussion going. It is a good one. But right now, I just want to say that there is a reason that Debate Politics is one of the best forums on the net. The reasons are you, as amply demonstrated here in this very thread. :)
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It is fair to point out that both sides have added to our national debt.

I do think that there has been a change in much of the electorate. With the current recession and the banking crisis people are better understanding that we can't just keep adding to our debt.

There comes a tipping point, when people started realizing the mess we are in. That is why people who thought we could do all sorts of things without paying for them now think we have to control our deficits.

I am not sure these people are hypocrites, rather people who have gotten wiser.
 
Catawba said:
No one said deficit reduction would be easy. I suppose we could have just put a trillion dollars on the tab as Bush did with his prescription card program
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Why don't you link me to something showing that Medicare Part D added a trillion to the deficit? My numbers, directly from the CBO, indicate that the cost for the first 10 years of benefits is $549.2b, just $15b higher than the original projection.

http://www.cms.hhs.gov/ReportsTrustFunds/downloads/tr2009.pdf

Page 126.

Catawba said:
CBO estimates are $130 billion in the first ten years, and $1.2 trillion in the next ten years.
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How about you read the CBO letter and quote me the language saying it will save $1.2T over the second decade. (Of course, that all assumes that the excise tax, premium reductions, and doctor fixes will be untouched. Do you really think that's going to happen?)
 
Catawba said:
No one said deficit reduction would be easy. I suppose we could have just put a trillion dollars on the tab as Bush did with his prescription card program, and the other trillion the Republicans put on the tab for the tax cuts for the wealthy, but I prefer paying for programs up front. CBO estimates are usually conservative.
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I didn't say that this bill would cut the deficeit. I'm calling bs on the report. Even the CBO knows this, but they are only allowed to analyse the bill that they have. Most of the bill's costs have been shifted into the future while taxes and cuts (which are unlikely to occur) will come sooner. In other words, the analysis doesn't measure 10 years when everything in the bill is in effect. It's just politicians trying to pull the wool over our eyes again.

Catawba said:
Its kind of funny seeing how in 1998, the Republicans threatened to cut budget funding of the CBO because they thought their cost estimates were too conservative.
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And...? I'm not a Republican
 
"Although CBO completed a preliminary review of legislative language prior to its release, the agency has not thoroughly examined the reconciliation proposal to verify its consistency with the previous draft. This estimate is therefore preliminary, pending a review of the language of the reconciliation proposal, as well as further review and refinement of the budgetary projections.

The reconciliation proposal includes provisions related to health care and revenues, many of which would amend H.R. 3590. It also includes amendments to the Higher Education Act of 1965, which authorizes most federal programs involving postsecondary education."


http://www.politico.com/static/PPM110_100318_cbo_score.html

Does that mean the CBO score isn't really all that accurate?
 
Catawba said:
CBO estimates are $130 billion in the first ten years, and $1.2 trillion in the next ten years.
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And when this estimate is found to be short sighted, and the savings are not realized what then? More excuses and finger pointing. Fact is, the savings being claimed are double counts of expenditures being counted as savings coupled with new taxes. That's not savings to the american people, so who is this alleged savings for?

Catawba said:
That was to clean up the mess left by the last administration.
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The mess we're still in you mean? Even after the "stimulus" which hasn't made a dent in the unemployment? Even after taking over the Banks and domestic Car company's? Even after staying in Iraq, staying in Afghanistan, continuing the Bush Patriot Act, Gitmo still being open, alleged captives there still without habius corpus, and now the latest - a government takeover of health care and student loans...coupled withspending 2 Trillion dollars his first year and claiming a false 2 Trillion dollar savings over the next 10 years that doesn't add up... the result is, the mess is still here, the clean up is an outright lie and more sewage is added to the "mess" everyday, but the sheep are told to parrot the talking points: "It's was to clean up the mess from the last administration".


Catawba said:
I think they should cut our military spending in half to start paying down our debt. I've never thought we could sustain our imperialistic spending levels that Bush doubled.
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I could agree, if we also disband the Fed, remove the Dept. of Education, drill our own oil instead of continuing to import it, freeze all debt spending over the next decade, and sell back to the private sector the banks, the car company's, and any other government involvement into people's lives.

Sure... then cut 1/2 of all the overseas bases and close them, cut 1/2 of all new R&D, cut equipment, weapons, etc. Smaller government, and not just smaller military, is good all the way around.
 
Harry Guerrilla said:
"Although CBO completed a preliminary review of legislative language prior to its release, the agency has not thoroughly examined the reconciliation proposal to verify its consistency with the previous draft. This estimate is therefore preliminary, pending a review of the language of the reconciliation proposal, as well as further review and refinement of the budgetary projections.

The reconciliation proposal includes provisions related to health care and revenues, many of which would amend H.R. 3590. It also includes amendments to the Higher Education Act of 1965, which authorizes most federal programs involving postsecondary education."


http://www.politico.com/static/PPM110_100318_cbo_score.html

Does that mean the CBO score isn't really all that accurate?
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The CBO estimate is only as accurate as what they look at the make the estimate. If the bill put in front of the CBO is full of hidden costs/language or what Republicans have called "smoke and mirrors" - they can't accurately assess what it is... garbage in / garbage out.
 
Ockham said:
The CBO estimate is only as accurate as what they look at the make the estimate. If the bill put in front of the CBO is full of hidden costs/language or what Republicans have called "smoke and mirrors" - they can't accurately assess what it is... garbage in / garbage out.
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then it would seem the best strategy for the opposition is to identify all of the busts and miscalculations and double counting identifiable within the CBO numbers and show the public that it is being sold a bill of goods. time for the republicans to fan away the smoke and break the mirrors

being unable to do that, because there are no identifiable and explainable busts, miscalculations or double countings to be found in the CBO data, then we should expect the republicans to instead rail about Obama being in the USA instead of indonesia on sunday, or that it is sacrilegious to vote on sunday, or that 'deemed to pass' is an underhanded tactic (except when republicans use it)

thanks for the laugh
 
justabubba said:
then it would seem the best strategy for the opposition is to identify all of the busts and miscalculations and double counting identifiable within the CBO numbers and show the public that it is being sold a bill of goods. time for the republicans to fan away the smoke and break the mirrors

being unable to do that, because there are no identifiable and explainable busts, miscalculations or double countings to be found in the CBO data, then we should expect the republicans to instead rail about Obama being in the USA instead of indonesia on sunday, or that it is sacrilegious to vote on sunday, or that 'deemed to pass' is an underhanded tactic (except when republicans use it)

thanks for the laugh
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Unfortunately it is not that simple (even though I wish it was). If the republicans are correct and the estimate is misleading, they will publish some stuff and get their guys out on Fox News and AM radio. In fact, even if they can't come up with why this is misleading, they will make something up because it supports their world view.

However, even if the republicans are right, than the democrats will gloss over it as well and get their stuff out on Kos, MSNBC, etc because that is what supports their world view.

The truth of it doesn't matter to either side.
 
megaprogman said:
Unfortunately it is not that simple (even though I wish it was). If the republicans are correct and the estimate is misleading, they will publish some stuff and get their guys out on Fox News and AM radio. In fact, even if they can't come up with why this is misleading, they will make something up because it supports their world view.

However, even if the republicans are right, than the democrats will gloss over it as well and get their stuff out on Kos, MSNBC, etc because that is what supports their world view.

The truth of it doesn't matter to either side.
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from your post it is apparent that i did not clearly articulate my point
if the CBO data is truly flawed, then the opposition could and should galvanize public sentiment against the bill by revealing the misrepresentation - by exposing the deceit of the CBO numbers
that they can't indicates the numbers are likely based on legitimate premise

the opposition on these pages similarly insists that the CBO data is flawed. but they also want us to take their word for it, being without the ability to show that the numbers are incorrect
the numbers are objective, and are easily subject to scrutiny to point out what does not add up
the underlying assumptions used by the CBO to compile those numerical estimates are much more subjective, yet we see nothing from the republicans identifying why those assumptions render the CBO data illegitimate

either the CBO numbers are sound
or the opposition is too inept to expose the errors within them
 
justabubba said:
from your post it is apparent that i did not clearly articulate my point
if the CBO data is truly flawed, then the opposition could and should galvanize public sentiment against the bill by revealing the misrepresentation - by exposing the deceit of the CBO numbers
that they can't indicates the numbers are likely based on legitimate premise

the opposition on these pages similarly insists that the CBO data is flawed. but they also want us to take their word for it, being without the ability to show that the numbers are incorrect
the numbers are objective, and are easily subject to scrutiny to point out what does not add up
the underlying assumptions used by the CBO to compile those numerical estimates are much more subjective, yet we see nothing from the republicans identifying why those assumptions render the CBO data illegitimate

either the CBO numbers are sound
or the opposition is too inept to expose the errors within them
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We must be reading two different threads, because I've seen half a dozen posts here where people have pointed out issues where the CBO's projections will almost certainly deviate from reality.

All we can do is place the evidence in front of you. If you don't want to read it, that's on you.
 
RightinNYC said:
We must be reading two different threads, because I've seen half a dozen posts here where people have pointed out issues where the CBO's projections will almost certainly deviate from reality.

All we can do is place the evidence in front of you. If you don't want to read it, that's on you.
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great!
show me the evidence
 
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Harry Guerrilla said:
I posted the letter from the head of the CBO to Pelosi, that should be good enough.
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sure it was. good enough to demonstrate that the opposition is without any factual basis to undermine the CBO estimates

thanks for that
 
justabubba said:
sure it was. good enough to demonstrate that the opposition is without any factual basis to undermine the CBO estimates

thanks for that
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Did you even bother to read it?

The guy explicitly states that the estimate is only a preliminary one and that it can't be considered accurate because of additional outlays not represented in the current bill.
 
justabubba said:
so you actually have nothing - except an opinion unsupported by any facts

thanks for sharing
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The bulk of that post is taken directly from the CBO's letter. Like I said, there's only so much I can do for you.
 
so much repetition required pedagogically

patience a plus:

half the "deficit reduction" comes from "savings" supposedly found in school loans

there is a quarter tril doc fix, not paid for

House passes Medicare 'doc fix,' 243-183 - TheHill.com

there is a double counting of another quarter T, says cbo

Budget Office Rebuts Democratic Claims on Medicare (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

there's 10 years of taxes vs 6 of benefits

RealClearPolitics - Senator Ben Nelson on the Senate Health Care Bill

cbo scored what leadership put in front of it, naturally

meanwhile, bay state treasurer tim cahill, overseer of romney-care, says america will go bankrupt if it passes this bill

Tim Cahill slams Barack Obama, Dems on health care - BostonHerald.com

pretty much all america knows it

you can't expand m and m by tens of millions while simultaneously trimming them massively

as certain as gravity

the only reason to pass this monstrosity is to try to rescue obama's dead presidency

and even that won't work

party on, progressives

rapidly o'er the precipice
 
Meanwhile the bribes keep coming... the Cornhusker Kickback is out, now $500 Million (yes that's 1/2 a Billion dollars) for a new Omaha VA hospital is in, in, in.

Health-vote ally Nelson to get new VA hospital for Nebraska - Washington Times

Tennessee? $100 million for Medicaid

North Dakota? An exemption for the 1 bank left in the country allowed to lend Student Loans after the Dept. of Education becomes the 6th or 7th (depending who you read) largest bank in the country.


This is downright corruption and while the pundits call this the normal horse trading, it has to stop on both sides of the isle. If health scare did one thing, it has opened up these processes the the exposure of light and has informed people of the shenanigans going on to a new depth. And yes, we do care about the process; the Constitution is after all, a list of processes.
 
No, it's not corruption. And it's hardly new.
 
there're rumors of a lot more bribes

a nasa appointment for tennessee's gordon who's retiring

an ambassadorship for tanner of tennessee

a bank exemption concerning school loans for dakota

the connecticut hospital deal is still in for dodd

more water for the central valley's cardoza and costa

lots of bribes still in there and not enough time for people even to read the bill to find em all

pass this at your peril, progressives

you will not revive your presidency, his entire platform will still be kaput

his polls will plummet below 40, guaranteed

it's already happening

the word DEEM is way too out there, way too prominent

it's not a good word, politically speaking

politics is sound bites and buzz words

you may win passage of this bill

but i and mine will butcher you in the battle of the buzz

barbara boxer, bye bye

it's that bad
 
Are you an English prof, Prof? I doubt it.
 
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