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Thread: CBO Numbers [have just come out]

  1. #11
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    Re: CBO Numbers [have just come out]

    Quote Originally Posted by justabubba View Post
    that causes me to wonder what data you would use to scrutinize this action
    The end result.

    Most people don't have the ability to look down the road at what today's actions will cause. I do have that ability, but realize that you can't fight ignorance with foresight, so I don't fight about it. I can accept that most humans must learn the hard way.
    Last edited by lizzie; 03-18-10 at 01:55 PM.
    "God is the name by which I designate all things which cross my path violently and recklessly, all things which alter my plans and intentions, and change the course of my life, for better or for worse."
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    Re: CBO Numbers [have just come out]

    meanwhile, floor whip lynch from boston DAMNS the DEEM

    Stephen Lynch calls health care vote plan ‘disingenuous’ - BostonHerald.com

    if you're interested you need to know that leadership is NOW kinda backing away from the slaughter solution

    i say, "kinda," because leadership keeps changing its tack every ten minutes

    and when the whip says one thing the leader routinely announces the opposite

    without the DEEM their only option is to vote on the SENATE BILL exactly as written

    including the cornhusker kickback and gatoraid and seiu and all the other CRAP the president used to promise he'd take out until he saw he just doesn't have time

    it is what it is

    a party leadership desperate to move that which is stuck, desperate against a timetable that's going tick tock tick even faster than they're changing their minds, a leadership desperate to paint an ESTIMATE as a rules-qualifying SCORE, etc, etc, etc

    they're moving away from DEEM this morning, they're moving back to the senate bill, they're out of time, they're misrepresenting...

    it is what it is

    oh, yeah, lynch said he'd "probably" vote against the senate bill, too

    sorry

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    Re: CBO Numbers [have just come out]

    From the CBO's letter:

    -Over the next four years, change in insurance status would be very minimal. Three million fewer people would be receiving Medicaid/CHIP while three million more people would be covered by employer insurance. It won't be until 2014 that there's any notable change in the number of uninsured, at which point it will ramp up to the full projected 30 million by 2016, with 21m getting insurance through the exchanges, 17m getting it through Medicaid/CHIP, and 8m dropping out of employer or nongroup insurance.

    -By 2019, there would still be 23m people without insurance, and the number would have started growing again.

    -Penalty payments by individuals and businesses would total $69b over the 10 year period.

    -The excise tax wouldn't kick in until 2018, but would net $12b in its first year and $20b in its second.

    -As to the budget savings: "Approximately $85 billion of that reduction would be on-budget; other effects related to Social Security revenues and spending as well as spending by the U.S. Postal Service are classified as off-budget."

    -The claim that the proposal will "cut the budget by $1.2T in the second decade" is a load of ****. The CBO says that the effect of the reform, if left unchanged, will be something like 0.5% of GDP. That's as specific as they get. They project the effect of the reconciliation bill as being something "between zero and .25% of GDP," aka "something between $0 and $600b."

    The only reason for such drastic savings is that once it hits the second decade, the money being collected from the excise tax skyrockets while the payments for premiums level off. If anyone actually believes that that's going to happen, I'll introduce you to the AMT and we can have a chat.

    -The savings numbers being quoted also appear to include the savings from the proposed student loan bill. The reasons for that should be obvious.

    -Reductions in spending would be accomplished, among other things, through:

    *$11.6b in savings from "Administrative simplification" of Medicaid spending
    *$39.7b in savings from cuts in payments for home health care aides
    *$139.1b in savings from cuts in Medicare Advantage payments
    *$10.7b in savings from eliminating Part D subsidy for wealthy people
    *$25b from "temporary adjustments to the calculation of Part B premiums" (read: increased revenue from higher premiums)
    *$156.6b in savings from "Revision of Certain Market Basket Updates and Incorporation of services Productivity Improvements into Market Basket Updates that do not Already Incorporate Such Improvements"
    *70.2b in savings from "TITLE VIIIóCOMMUNITY LIVING ASSISTANCE SERVICES AND SUPPORTS"
    *70.4b in savings from "Medicare Advantage interactions"

    Major outlays would include:

    *$56.3b to close the Medicare prescription donut hole.
    *$434b on Medicaid/CHIP
    *$466b on exchange subsidies
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    Re: CBO Numbers [have just come out]

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    From the CBO's letter:

    -Over the next four years, change in insurance status would be very minimal. Three million fewer people would be receiving Medicaid/CHIP while three million more people would be covered by employer insurance. It won't be until 2014 that there's any notable change in the number of uninsured, at which point it will ramp up to the full projected 30 million by 2016, with 21m getting insurance through the exchanges, 17m getting it through Medicaid/CHIP, and 8m dropping out of employer or nongroup insurance.

    -By 2019, there would still be 23m people without insurance, and the number would have started growing again.

    -Penalty payments by individuals and businesses would total $69b over the 10 year period.

    -The excise tax wouldn't kick in until 2018, but would net $12b in its first year and $20b in its second.

    -As to the budget savings: "Approximately $85 billion of that reduction would be on-budget; other effects related to Social Security revenues and spending as well as spending by the U.S. Postal Service are classified as off-budget."

    -The claim that the proposal will "cut the budget by $1.2T in the second decade" is a load of ****. The CBO says that the effect of the reform, if left unchanged, will be something like 0.5% of GDP. That's as specific as they get. They project the effect of the reconciliation bill as being something "between zero and .25% of GDP," aka "something between $0 and $600b."

    The only reason for such drastic savings is that once it hits the second decade, the money being collected from the excise tax skyrockets while the payments for premiums level off. If anyone actually believes that that's going to happen, I'll introduce you to the AMT and we can have a chat.

    -The savings numbers being quoted also appear to include the savings from the proposed student loan bill. The reasons for that should be obvious.

    -Reductions in spending would be accomplished, among other things, through:

    *$11.6b in savings from "Administrative simplification" of Medicaid spending
    *$39.7b in savings from cuts in payments for home health care aides
    *$139.1b in savings from cuts in Medicare Advantage payments
    *$10.7b in savings from eliminating Part D subsidy for wealthy people
    *$25b from "temporary adjustments to the calculation of Part B premiums" (read: increased revenue from higher premiums)
    *$156.6b in savings from "Revision of Certain Market Basket Updates and Incorporation of services Productivity Improvements into Market Basket Updates that do not Already Incorporate Such Improvements"
    *70.2b in savings from "TITLE VIIIóCOMMUNITY LIVING ASSISTANCE SERVICES AND SUPPORTS"
    *70.4b in savings from "Medicare Advantage interactions"

    Major outlays would include:

    *$56.3b to close the Medicare prescription donut hole.
    *$434b on Medicaid/CHIP
    *$466b on exchange subsidies
    Not for nothing...but those cuts you described...they are only CUTS if the services go away...otherwise they arent cuts they are cost shifts...at best.

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    Re: CBO Numbers [have just come out]

    Quote Originally Posted by VanceMack View Post
    Not for nothing...but those cuts you described...they are only CUTS if the services go away...otherwise they arent cuts they are cost shifts...at best.
    Not sure what you're trying to say here. I thought I made it pretty clear that the programs in question were not being canceled, but that the amount of money being spent on them was being "cut" by X.
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    Re: CBO Numbers [have just come out]

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    Not sure what you're trying to say here. I thought I made it pretty clear that the programs in question were not being canceled, but that the amount of money being spent on them was being "cut" by X.
    Are the cuts 'real' cuts or cost shifting? Are the services simply no longer offered? Have they found a magic way to pay for them? Or were they simply fraudulent costs in the first place?

    Im not questioning you or the numbers. I have this inherent distrust of the federal government and their numbers game. PROBABLY has something to do with that 13.5 trillion dollar debt.

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    Re: CBO Numbers [have just come out]

    Quote Originally Posted by VanceMack View Post
    Are the cuts 'real' cuts or cost shifting? Are the services simply no longer offered? Have they found a magic way to pay for them? Or were they simply fraudulent costs in the first place?

    Im not questioning you or the numbers. I have this inherent distrust of the federal government and their numbers game. PROBABLY has something to do with that 13.5 trillion dollar debt.
    Some of them are cuts via a decrease in the reimbursement rate. Where they used to pay $100 for X, now they'll only pay $95.

    Some of them are cuts via redefinition of program qualifiers. Where they used to subsidize the Part D premiums of everyone, now they'll only do that for non-high income people.

    Some of them are cuts via increased efficiency. Where they used to waste lots of money, now they'll supposedly put an end to that waste and save billions.
    People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

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    Re: CBO Numbers [have just come out]

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    Some of them are cuts via a decrease in the reimbursement rate. Where they used to pay $100 for X, now they'll only pay $95.

    Some of them are cuts via redefinition of program qualifiers. Where they used to subsidize the Part D premiums of everyone, now they'll only do that for non-high income people.

    Some of them are cuts via increased efficiency. Where they used to waste lots of money, now they'll supposedly put an end to that waste and save billions.
    If this is possible, why was it not done long ago?

    .

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    Re: CBO Numbers [have just come out]

    Quote Originally Posted by TOJ View Post
    If this is possible, why was it not done long ago?
    I asked the same thing about how we'll supposedly save $90b with no negative effects by cutting the middle man out of student lending, and I didn't get an answer there either.

    To some, the old adage of "too good to be true" doesn't apply when discussing the government.
    People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

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    Re: CBO Numbers [have just come out]

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    I asked the same thing about how we'll supposedly save $90b with no negative effects by cutting the middle man out of student lending, and I didn't get an answer there either.

    To some, the old adage of "too good to be true" doesn't apply when discussing the government.
    those congressional gifts to banking (using federal funds to make student loans) and the insurance (no negotiation payments) industries are being rescinded ... at least in part

    see, it is about change
    we are negotiating about dividing a pizza and in the meantime israel is eating it
    once you're over the hill you begin to pick up speed

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