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Thread: Repeal of 'Don't ask, don't tell' to trigger draft

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    Re: Repeal of 'Don't ask, don't tell' to trigger draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Navy Pride View Post
    I know how the men in the fleet feel and that is all that counts
    No, you don't know how they feel. You only know how the ones you've personally talked to feel. I doubt you've talked to every sailor in the Navy.

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    Re: Repeal of 'Don't ask, don't tell' to trigger draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Rassales View Post
    For a poll to be valid, it must be a random selection of members in the population being sampled.
    then it is impossible for a poll to be valid; because your selection method will be non-biased. either you are using phones (you are only selecting members of the populations with available phone numbers who choose to pick up random numbers), you are using door to door (you are only selecting members who live in houses and who choose to answer the door), you are choosing mail (you are only selecting members who choose to respond) etc.

    In this poll the members of the survey group were entirely those who felt strongly enough about the issue to take the time to go to the internet and answer the poll.
    1. that's not a huge factor, it's not exactly that difficult to go All The Way To The Internet
    2. but yup. all polls are going to be tilted by two levels of choice; the choice of the pollster in how they go about contacting people, and the choice of the pollee in whether or not to take the effort (however, much effort it is) to respond.

    For example, if Marines are more likely to read the magazine, does that make them more represented in the poll group?
    again, if you'll go back and read the article, it breaks it down between the services, between active v retired, between genders, and (as i recall) between age groups. you can look up what the Navy Active Duty said (only 45% favor keeping the ban) or what the Marine Active Duty said (63% favor keeping it).

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    Re: Repeal of 'Don't ask, don't tell' to trigger draft

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    then it is impossible for a poll to be valid; because your selection method will be non-biased. either you are using phones (you are only selecting members of the populations with available phone numbers who choose to pick up random numbers), you are using door to door (you are only selecting members who live in houses and who choose to answer the door), you are choosing mail (you are only selecting members who choose to respond) etc.
    Most polls use phones, which are a pretty reliable. Most people have phones and choose to answer them. If they don't, you can use alternates also selected at random. Combined with other techniques, the pollsters can make the sample pretty damn close to pure random.

    But if a random sample poll can't be valid, as you noted, no poll can. Including the one from the magazine.

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    Re: Repeal of 'Don't ask, don't tell' to trigger draft

    Quote Originally Posted by misterman View Post
    Most polls use phones, which are a pretty reliable. Most people have phones and choose to answer them. If they don't, you can use alternates also selected at random. Combined with other techniques, the pollsters can make the sample pretty damn close to pure random.
    Also, with a phone survey you get a fair number who just hang up or refuse to answer. But there are statistical methods for adjusting for phone usage (phone use habits are unlikely to be predictive for this question). Its very possible to get a valid survey, but this was not the method.

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    Re: Repeal of 'Don't ask, don't tell' to trigger draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Navy Pride View Post
    Any poll that disagrees with you then you won't believe it well I talked to the men on active duty and I know the truth.........
    Says the man who posted a poll that he thought said one thing...and when it turned out that it said completely the opposite....has been running and avoiding responsibility for it ever since.

    You are ONE to talk about not believing any poll that disagrees with you.

    In fact...Navy...you were the one that called Rasmussen a "Biased pollster that only polls liberals"...because you didn't agree with them.
    <font size=5><b>Its been several weeks since the Vegas shooting.  Its it still "Too Early" or can we start having the conversation about finally doing something about these mass shootings???​</b></font>

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    Re: Repeal of 'Don't ask, don't tell' to trigger draft

    Quote Originally Posted by misterman View Post
    Most polls use phones, which are a pretty reliable. Most people have phones and choose to answer them. If they don't, you can use alternates also selected at random. Combined with other techniques, the pollsters can make the sample pretty damn close to pure random.

    But if a random sample poll can't be valid, as you noted, no poll can. Including the one from the magazine.
    that's rather my point; rassales claim would require delegitimizing all polling in order to justify ignoring this one.

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    Re: Repeal of 'Don't ask, don't tell' to trigger draft

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    that's rather my point; rassales claim would require delegitimizing all polling in order to justify ignoring this one.
    No, I think you would. But never mind. Whether or not any polls can be valid, the point is that Navy Pride's certainly isn't.

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    Re: Repeal of 'Don't ask, don't tell' to trigger draft

    antecdotal evidence remains important because it often provides background that is missing in the raw numbers.

    but yeah, in an organization of over a million; the 180 or so guys that you spend your tour with aren't necessecarily representative.

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    Re: Repeal of 'Don't ask, don't tell' to trigger draft

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    antecdotal evidence remains important because it often provides background that is missing in the raw numbers.
    Sometimes that's true. But it can't be used to represent the opinions of everyone, such as "80% of people believe x".

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    Re: Repeal of 'Don't ask, don't tell' to trigger draft

    Quote Originally Posted by misterman View Post
    No, you don't know how they feel. You only know how the ones you've personally talked to feel. I doubt you've talked to every sailor in the Navy.
    That is ridiculous but I have talked to a cross section of Navy menand it tells me how they feel on the subject......
    "God Bless Our Troops in Harms Way."

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