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Thread: Fears that World Cup could increase spread of HIV

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    Re: Fears that World Cup could increase spread of HIV

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    Again, the transmission rate I used is science. You don't have to like it, but you don't get to just toss it out because it doesn't sound right to you or doesn't fit your narrative.
    Sorry to barge in on your dismantling of MrV (which I do so enjoy), but I just wanted to say that even though it's science, it does not make the numbers accurate. They are accurate within the full means of scientific testing, but there are plenty of gaps in HIV rate reports. It relies on people who are willfully coming forward to be tested, and those numbers have always been in the minority, especially among heterosexuals.

    So, based on your model , we can say that the worst case scenario is that 12 people will be infected, but in the realm of undocumented cases, the numbers are probably much higher.

    Remember, the worldwide HIV rate is based on reported numbers, which are gathered from people who get tested; just like the usage rates for condoms come from self-reporting, which people could easily be lying about out of guilt.

    This is why statistics are useful as a guideline but not for policy making. You need to rely on ground workers and their anecdotal experiences with these communities to get more accurate information on the probability of higher infection rates.

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    Re: Fears that World Cup could increase spread of HIV

    Quote Originally Posted by Orius View Post
    Sorry to barge in on your dismantling of MrV (which I do so enjoy), but I just wanted to say that even though it's science, it does not make the numbers accurate. They are accurate within the full means of scientific testing, but there are plenty of gaps in HIV rate reports. It relies on people who are willfully coming forward to be tested, and those numbers have always been in the minority, especially among heterosexuals.

    So, based on your model , we can say that the worst case scenario is that 12 people will be infected, but in the realm of undocumented cases, the numbers are probably much higher.

    Remember, the worldwide HIV rate is based on reported numbers, which are gathered from people who get tested; just like the usage rates for condoms come from self-reporting, which people could easily be lying about out of guilt.

    This is why statistics are useful as a guideline but not for policy making. You need to rely on ground workers and their anecdotal experiences with these communities to get more accurate information on the probability of higher infection rates.
    I agree that it's not certain, but the studies which those numbers are based on are pretty rigorous. They usually involve taking a few hundred stable couples that have one infected partner and then periodically testing them to determine transmission rates.

    Comparison of female to male and male to female transmission of HIV in 563 stable couples. European Study Group on Heterosexual Transmission of HIV.

    Heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficienc... [Am J Epidemiol. 1998] - PubMed result

    I'd argue that those are much more reliable than relying on reported numbers, though there's still a chance that selection bias might be skewing things.
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    Re: Fears that World Cup could increase spread of HIV

    Quote Originally Posted by Tucker Case View Post
    I wasn't giving an exhaustive list of reasons to not use prostitutes.

    Otherwise I would have included:

    Person 4. There's no prostitute on Earth who needs the money that bad


    as one of the options so that you wouldn't feel left out

    Seriously, though, which of the two options I did give would you consider a higher standard of behavior?
    Person 1. Obviously.
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    Re: Fears that World Cup could increase spread of HIV

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    Person 1. Obviously.
    I agree.

    So if we hold our society to the higher standard, we allow them to make that their choice instead of adding punishments arbitrarily to the lower standard choice as a way to deter that lower standard of behavior.

    Under the current laws, it's fairly easy to say "I don't use the services of prostitutes because it's wrong" when there is a clear punishment that exists for using the services of a prostitute. This is because it has been clearly labeled as "wrong" by a society that punishes the alternative behavior.

    But if we were held to the highest standard, we would remove the punishments for the alternative behavior and still abstain from the behavior. In that situation a person is being held to the highest standard of behavior possible: self-control.

    If they fail to hold themselves to that standard, then they are still be held to the highest standard of behavior, they are simply not living up to the standard.
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    Re: Fears that World Cup could increase spread of HIV

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    With a half million fans, let's assume that 5% patronize prostitutes - 25,000. Assume that 50% are smart and use condoms. Since the odds of contracting HIV from unprotected sex with an infected female are 1 in 2000, that means there should be about six people who contract HIV thanks to the World Cup. Roughly.
    wouldn't this depend upon how rampant the infected is? I mean if they in treatment and have it under control is it not harder to infect others, than if it is left untreated and allowed to run amok until the carrier dies? I am kind of assuming hookers in S. Africa do not have access to 'great healthcare'

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    Quote Originally Posted by jallman View Post
    How the hell did you just tie in a retroactive reparative measure with a proactive preventative measure. Not even close to being the same thing.

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    Re: Fears that World Cup could increase spread of HIV

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    I don't support legalizing destructive behavior just because it's "easier" to deal with it. That's the biggest problem I have with the Libertarian movement. This belief that society doesn't have an obligation to hold itself to a higher standard.
    In other words its your counter argument to letting people be in charge of their own bodies is nothing but emotional bull****.
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    Re: Fears that World Cup could increase spread of HIV

    Quote Originally Posted by zimmer View Post
    Infrastructure isn't what I'm talking about.

    It's a very dangerous place.
    I know many people from there.
    They know what's up, how when and where to travel.
    Those that don't... will be targets.
    I won't go there because of the high crime rate. Just isn't worth it.

    From 2002, but still relevant:

    BBC News | TALKING POINT | Have you experienced crime in South Africa?
    Hmmmm.....
    I wonder why?........

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    Re: Fears that World Cup could increase spread of HIV

    Quote Originally Posted by chevydriver1123 View Post
    In other words its your counter argument to letting people be in charge of their own bodies is nothing but emotional bull****.
    Yes, you got me. Society shouldn't care ever what someone does, or the negative secondary problems. who are we to set standards in society?
    Climate, changes. It takes a particularly uneducated population to buy into the idea that it's their fault climate is changing and further political solutions can fix it.



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    Re: Fears that World Cup could increase spread of HIV

    Quote Originally Posted by zimmer View Post
    True, but I wouldn't hold the World Cup in the most dangerous place on earth without a war.

    Statistics mean people will be at risk.
    I think I made my case; knowing people that have lived there or live there.

    I don't think Rio would be wise for the Olympics for the same reason.

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    Journalist held up at gunpoint, 2 others robbed - Yahoo! News

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    Re: Fears that World Cup could increase spread of HIV

    Wishing everyone a safe World Cup...
    That's 6 journalists in 2-days. What about the general population?

    South Africa warns against crime ahead of World Cup - Yahoo! News
    Chinese state media reported on Thursday that four Chinese journalists were also robbed at gunpoint when they stopped their car on a roadside on their way to Johannesburg. The thieves took a small amount of cash and a camera.

    South Africa has one of the world's highest crime rates -- with an average 50 killings a day -- making security one of the biggest headaches for World Cup organisers.
    The Clintons are what happens...
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