I know there's going to be a lot of disagreement on where a recession starts, so let's just start somewhere where we can all agree: banks are not lending money. Also in the current situation we have high unemployment and a lot of uncertainty. So this means that people start saving more money. This pushes banks to start lending (Goldenboy says that banks are lush with reserves, but are they anywhere near 100%?), and so companies will start to grow again once credit becomes more easily available. It's like we're reconciling the lost loans with more savings, like whatever was defaulted on is now keeping us back from progressing. The faster we fix that problem, the faster we can move on.