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Thread: Obama not losing support among independents

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    Obama not losing support among independents

    This surpised me, I thought for sure Obama was losing at least some support among Dems or Independents....


    Public Policy Polling: Where Obama's really dropping

    When talking about the decline in Barack Obama's approval numbers the media usually focuses on independents, or whether he's losing his base. The biggest reason his numbers are going down right now though is not related to either of those things- it's because he's losing whatever small amount of bipartisan appeal he once had.

    On our national survey in June Obama had an 82% approval rating with Democrats. Now it's 83%. He had a 46% approval rating with independents. Now it's 47%. No real change on either of those fronts. But with Republicans he's dropped from an 18% mark to just 10%. That shift is what put his approval rating below 50%- he's gone from a small amount of crossover support to a very small amount of crossover supports.

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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Considering that PPP is a partisan poll shop and that every other poll out there contradicts this one, I'd be wary of believing anything they say.


    Obama Faces Challenge with Independents - Political Hotsheet - CBS News

    CBS says he's dropped 20 points among independents in 7 months.

    Demographic Notes - Barack Obama Approval Index - Rasmussen Reports

    Rasmussen has him dropping over 22.

    4/8: Majority Approves of Obama’s Job Performance : Home of the Marist Poll: Pebbles and Pundits

    Marist also has him dropping 20.


    PPP was also mind-bogglingly off the mark in their polling on NY-23:

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New York 23rd District - Special Election

    While other pollsters may have been off by a few points, they were off by 21.

    Edit: Also, there's absolutely no way that poll can be accurate. If Republicans are only around 24% of the country, then an 8% swing among them would be nowhere near enough to offset a 1% gain in Dems/Independents and still account for his significant drop in approval ratings. That's just mathematically impossible.
    Last edited by RightinNYC; 11-25-09 at 04:10 AM.
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    Caution Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    Considering that PPP is a partisan poll shop and that every other poll out there contradicts this one, I'd be wary of believing anything they say.


    Obama Faces Challenge with Independents - Political Hotsheet - CBS News

    CBS says he's dropped 20 points among independents in 7 months.

    Demographic Notes - Barack Obama Approval Index - Rasmussen Reports

    Rasmussen has him dropping over 22.

    4/8: Majority Approves of Obama’s Job Performance : Home of the Marist Poll: Pebbles and Pundits

    Marist also has him dropping 20.


    PPP was also mind-bogglingly off the mark in their polling on NY-23:

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New York 23rd District - Special Election

    While other pollsters may have been off by a few points, they were off by 21.
    Excuse me but isn't Rasmussen a right leaning polling company?

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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Quote Originally Posted by goldendog View Post
    Excuse me but isn't Rasmussen a right leaning polling company?
    No, despite the best efforts of some on here to paint them as such. Rasmussen's results tend to be a couple points tilted toward the Republicans, but that's largely because they use likely voters in their polls, while other companies use registered voters. In terms of accuracy, Rasmussen is widely acknowledged as one of the best.

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New York 23rd District - Special Election

    Partisan pollsters have a notation indicating their affiliation.
    Last edited by RightinNYC; 11-25-09 at 04:22 AM.
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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    No, despite the best efforts of some on here to paint them as such. Rasmussen's results tend to be a couple points tilted toward the Republicans, but that's largely because they use likely voters in their polls, while other companies use registered voters. In terms of accuracy, Rasmussen is widely acknowledged as one of the best.

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New York 23rd District - Special Election

    Partisan pollsters have a notation indicating their affiliation.
    By "likely voters"? Do they include likely voters from both sides of the aisle in all of their polling?

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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Quote Originally Posted by goldendog View Post
    By "likely voters"? Do they include likely voters from both sides of the aisle in all of their polling?
    Yes. The way it works is this:

    Some pollsters use "all adults," which is a good way to get a sense for how the country feels, but is pretty much useless in terms of electoral polling because the population at large does not mirror the electorate.

    Most pollsters use "registered voters," which is better, because it just looks at people who are actually registered to vote and are thus potentially part of the electorate.

    Other pollsters use "likely voters," which I think is the best, because it actually tends to track electoral results most accurately. Each firm uses a different method for calculating whether someone is a "likely voter," but it generally entails asking them whether they voted in the last election and whether they're planning on voting in the next one.

    Because people that identify as Republican tend to be more likely to be turn out than people that identify as Democrats, polls that sample likely voters tend to be skewed a few points more toward Republicans than polls that simply look at registered voters or all adults.
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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Obama once had solid support among Independents, but no longer. Gallup:

    Obama'a support among Independents
    January 26 - February 1, 2009 = 62%
    November 16 - 27, 2009 = 44%

    Gallup has Obama slipping in every category except blacks, where his support increased by 1 point.

    Obama's Approval Slide Finds Whites Down to 39%
    "Republicans believe every day is the Fourth of July, but the Democrats believe every day is April 15." -Ronald Reagan

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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Quote Originally Posted by goldendog View Post
    Excuse me but isn't Rasmussen a right leaning polling company?
    No, and he has three others. Thank you for your concession.
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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    When Obama's numbers are down in the GWB's numbers, I'll be concerned. The American public is fickle. I expect these numbers to flucuate wildly over the next 7 years.
    <font size=5><b>Its been several weeks since the Vegas shooting.  Its it still "Too Early" or can we start having the conversation about finally doing something about these mass shootings???​</b></font>

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