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Thread: Obama not losing support among independents

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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Quote Originally Posted by Joe1991 View Post
    Honesty, I haven't looked at the breakdowns of other polls, so I didn't know it was an outlier, I usually go with rolling averages like on realclearpolitics. This story was linked from a very legit site, and their numbers surprised even me. You made excellent points, and it just shows the need to double check stories even from "balanced" news sites.
    Yeah, the averages make more sense. The "one poll" thing is usually bad. Rasmussen is consistently an outlier though. Have no clue how they are in business anymore.
    It's time for a revolution in our country. Not a revolution forged with guns and bombs but a revolution forged of compassion and altruism. A revolution that extends a hand to those who don't have and who cannot. A revolution that makes Health Care available to all those in the US.

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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Quote Originally Posted by formerroadie View Post
    Yes, Rasmussen is a joke.
    Rasmussen was the most acurate poll in regards to the final numbers in the last election, I believe I heard this?

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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Quote Originally Posted by formerroadie View Post
    Yes, Rasmussen is a joke.



    translation: "polls i don't like are a joke"
    Let evil swiftly befall those who have wrongly condemned us

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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Quote Originally Posted by formerroadie View Post
    Yeah, the averages make more sense. The "one poll" thing is usually bad. Rasmussen is consistently an outlier though. Have no clue how they are in business anymore.


    Rasmussen Reports - Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaA paid Fordham University analysis ranked Rasmussen Reports as the most accurate national polling firm in Election 2008

    Reports by Slate Magazine and The Wall Street Journal found that Rasmussen Reports was one of the most accurate polling firms for the 2004 United States presidential election and 2006 United States general elections.[8][9]




    [ame=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports]Rasmussen Reports - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]




    fail?
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  5. #35
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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Obama fanboy's holding on with straining fingertips to their "hope and change" dream.. fail? No... just sad.
    I think if Thomas Jefferson were looking down, the author of the Bill of Rights, on whats being proposed here, hed agree with it. He would agree that the First Amendment cannot be absolute. - Chuck Schumer (D). Yet, Madison and Mason wrote the Bill of Rights, according to Sheila Jackson Lee, 400 years ago. Yup, it's a fact.


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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Quote Originally Posted by goldendog View Post
    Excuse me but isn't Rasmussen a right leaning polling company?
    Yep, except their polls tend to be just about like all the others.

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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    When it comes to polls, who is being polled is important.

    Rasmussen uses likely voters based on a history of voting in previous elections.
    Fox News and Democracy Corps use Registered Voters.
    Gallup, CBS and CNN use anyone who answers the phone.

    If polling for election results, in normal years, polling Likely Voters turns out more accurate results. Registered voters is second most accurate and that leaves a poll of the general public bringing up the rear.

    If you are polling for the views of the general public, you should use the widest selection of the general population to get the clearest results. But you should also use a larger polling sample and assure that you have a good distribution of locations. If you poll only urban people you will have skewed results just as if you polled mostly rural areas.

  8. #38
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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    No, despite the best efforts of some on here to paint them as such. Rasmussen's results tend to be a couple points tilted toward the Republicans, but that's largely because they use likely voters in their polls, while other companies use registered voters. In terms of accuracy, Rasmussen is widely acknowledged as one of the best.

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New York 23rd District - Special Election

    Partisan pollsters have a notation indicating their affiliation.


    Absolutely untrue. It is because of their question wording on issue polling, and they know it themselves. They in fact put out an article on it last week, they tested different questions using slightly different wording, and got different results. Kudos to them for putting out the article.

    They also spoke about how automated polling yields more accurate responses than live polling, and to some extent that has been proven true (for certain types of polling).

    PPP is a highly respected firm, it is a Democratic firm to be sure, but it's public polls are highly relied upon.

    Rasmussen absolutely has a house tilt in favor of Republicans on their issue polling, it seems only righties fail to acknowledge that. They are also a reputable firm, you just have to be aware of whether you are considering election polling or issue polling, and treat the results accordingly. Further, conflation of issue polling with election polling disregards the difference in poll construction. Question order and wording has a large impact on polling. Even more so on questions of opinion rather than who are you going to vote for.

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    Re: Obama not losing support among independents

    Quote Originally Posted by Joe1991 View Post
    This surpised me, I thought for sure Obama was losing at least some support among Dems or Independents....


    Public Policy Polling: Where Obama's really dropping

    I find that surprising also. I'd be interested to see if the result is duplicated...

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