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Thread: Hummel: The US Will Default On Its Debt

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    Re: Hummel: The US Will Default On Its Debt

    A look at the CBO's site doesn't make one quite as optimistic as many of you are

    Congressional Budget Office - Home Page
    Last edited by DrunkenAsparagus; 09-01-09 at 01:42 AM.

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    Re: Hummel: The US Will Default On Its Debt

    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkenAsparagus View Post
    A look at the CBO's site doesn't make one quite as optimistic as many of you are

    Congressional Budget Office - Home Page
    You aren't suggesting that the US is going to default on its debt because of one or two years of abnormally high deficits due to the worst recession since the 1930s...are you?

    If our creditors didn't trust us to pay it back, our bond rates would be higher.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 09-01-09 at 01:53 AM.
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    Re: Hummel: The US Will Default On Its Debt

    No,entitlements will really bite us in the ass though. They need serious overhaul, to be dropped, or we have to default at some point

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    Re: Hummel: The US Will Default On Its Debt

    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkenAsparagus View Post
    No,entitlements will really bite us in the ass though. They need serious overhaul, to be dropped, or we have to default at some point
    Social security can be made solvent with a few relatively minor tweaks: Raising the retirement age, reducing benefits, making it means-tested, etc. I'm not necessarily opposed to partial privatization, but I don't think it's necessary to make the program solvent.

    Medicare is a much bigger long-term problem. In this case, the only solution is major cost control. I think this will be much easier if we also have a public option health care plan that EVERYONE can participate in.
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    Re: Hummel: The US Will Default On Its Debt

    A public option plan would only put more people into a non cost effective government program. I also point out the problems with the tweaks, because I doubt that enough politicians in Washington have the balls to do that.

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    Re: Hummel: The US Will Default On Its Debt

    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkenAsparagus View Post
    A public option plan would only put more people into a non cost effective government program. I also point out the problems with the tweaks, because I doubt that enough politicians in Washington have the balls to do that.
    Well, any program can be cost-effective provided that the premiums are high enough to cover the outlays. If that means the public plan isn't as good as the private plans, so be it. It should be allowed to sink or swim on its own merits.

    As for tweaking social security...while I agree that it has become alarmingly difficult to make even the smallest tweaks, it would be much more difficult to overhaul the entire system. Look at what happened when Bush tried to do it in 2005.
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    Re: Hummel: The US Will Default On Its Debt

    Should I know who this hummel person is? Because I like, have no clue. At all.

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    Re: Hummel: The US Will Default On Its Debt

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Well, any program can be cost-effective provided that the premiums are high enough to cover the outlays. If that means the public plan isn't as good as the private plans, so be it. It should be allowed to sink or swim on its own merits.
    The thing is that this almost never happens. Look at Amtrak

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    As for tweaking social security...while I agree that it has become alarmingly difficult to make even the smallest tweaks, it would be much more difficult to overhaul the entire system. Look at what happened when Bush tried to do it in 2005.
    Tweaks would help, but a major change to the system is needed. SS in its current state is little more than a glorified ponzi scheme

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    Re: Hummel: The US Will Default On Its Debt

    Quote Originally Posted by Truth Detector View Post
    What other countries would those be? Germany, Britain and France? I think if one were to make an honest introspection, these countries are indeed headed for severe problems balancing the huge tax burden already being levied and the ability to continue their generous public welfare programs.

    They have violent riots about every month in France. Imagine if that started occurring in the US?
    [ame=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt]List of countries by public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

    Japan and Singapore come to mind, both of their problems are largely due to weak exports rather than internal welfare problems. And both are over 100%. Sweden has very low (36%) and it has many of the same problems as Germany, Britain and France, suggesting it is not debt to GDP, but something different. Russia has a mere 6.8% and that country has problems.

    The problem itself is not debt to GDP, it's what you spend it on as countries with low debt to gdp and countries with high debt to gdp yet have similar programs share the same problem.
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    Re: Hummel: The US Will Default On Its Debt

    I am horrible with economics so this is a very weak subject for me but I am under the impression that as far as the Obama stimulus package goes we borrowed serious gazoobies for it but in reality have spent only something like 50 million of it? If this is the case and the economy seems to be regaining on its own albeit slowly then wouldn't that mean that we would have a surplus at least in the sense of borrowed funds that either we could return to the countries that we borrowed it from or use to help out our own country in other ways? I do realize that regardless of using the money or not that huge interest payments are piling up on a daily basis but still even if we borrow the money but do not spend it does that mean that since Obama our actual debt has skyrocketed and we are in danger of defaulting compared to what it was when he took office?

    Not worded very well but I hope somebody can understand what I am asking.

    Moe

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