• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Wikileaks Email Shows Democrat Playbook to Rig Elections Through Oversampling

Anagram said:
They're doing it so they can get accurate subsections for advertising. Why he wants it broken down by market/region.
Click to expand...



Nonsense.

He SAYS why they're doing it. Over sampling would lead to over spending so that makes ZERO sense

Too much money trying to influence a skewed and oversampled demographic
 
Fenton said:
Nonsense.

He SAYS why they're doing it. Over sampling would lead to over spending so that makes ZERO sense

Too much money trying to influence a skewed and oversampled demographic
Click to expand...

It makes complete sense. Most polls are going to have too small samples for use. For example 18-25 year old women in a poll might be just 15 people. Not enough to draw any conclusions from. So if the campaign wants actual data to understand them and accurately target them they pay to oversample them. 18-25 year old women still get appropriately weighted in the final poll, but the data related to them is accurate.
 
Fenton said:
Nonsense.

He SAYS why they're doing it. Over sampling would lead to over spending so that makes ZERO sense

Too much money trying to influence a skewed and oversampled demographic
Click to expand...

It makes no sense because you are wrong. "Oversampling" just gives them a more complete picture of the beliefs/voting intentions/important issues etc. for whatever area/demographic they are "oversampling." It's information, that's all.
 
Fenton said:
Your'e the one pretending to be or IS ignorant.

Tom Mazzie is recomending oversampling " for our polling so we can maximize what they get out of our media polling.".

He then goes on to " highly recomend " over sampling of hispanics, african americans and native americans.

This is not some objective pollster who's trying to determine how much to spend where. Thats ridiculous.

Oversampling is the last thing you would want to do when it comes down to spending on Political adds. It would mean they're over spending.
Click to expand...

You're apparently trying hard to demonstrate ignorance here. It's absurd, seriously, to assert that oversampling means they're "over spending." You clearly don't know what oversampling even IS much less why it might be useful.

If you want to know where in Texas to spend $10 million, are you going to do a statewide survey of 500 voters, which might tell you how you're doing in that giant state, or are you going to "oversample" the big media markets so you get a really good picture about what the voters are like there, how many are independent, what are their issues, etc. then TARGET the money and the issues covered in the ads to the voters in that market? If you're not a blithering moron, you do the latter.

No, oversampling in this case is to, AGAIN like it says in the friken email you didnt read, is to maximize what they get out of their media polling.

Dont tell me you just barged into another thread without reading the Op.
Click to expand...

First of all, I read the email AND the attachment, and if you read the attachment, it clearly outlines WHY they need oversampling - to figure out whether, and who, to target.
 
JasperL said:
You're apparently trying hard to demonstrate ignorance here. It's absurd, seriously, to assert that oversampling means they're "over spending." You clearly don't know what oversampling even IS much less why it might be useful.

If you want to know where in Texas to spend $10 million, are you going to do a statewide survey of 500 voters, which might tell you how you're doing in that giant state, or are you going to "oversample" the big media markets so you get a really good picture about what the voters are like there, how many are independent, what are their issues, etc. then TARGET the money and the issues covered in the ads to the voters in that market? If you're not a blithering moron, you do the latter.



First of all, I read the email AND the attachment, and if you read the attachment, it clearly outlines WHY they need oversampling - to figure out whether, and who, to target.
Click to expand...

Lol !! You dont think the Democrats know who to target ?? Seriously ?

Mazzie is strongly recomending over sampling of who they want to target.

He couldn't be more explicit of who they want to target . And WHY would they want to spend MORE on a demographic they knew was oversampled ??
 
Mustachio said:
Only 32% of Americans say they trust the mainstream media (that's from a Gallup poll, which are rigged though haha), and I don't think Politico counts as mainstream. It has 34 million unique visits per month. Infowars, which has nothing but far far alt-right conspiracy theories (yet is quoted by Sean Hannity, I heard him cite a story by them last week) has 24 million unique visits per month.

My point is that nobody cares about what you're saying because people don't trust polls (by the way, did you want to respond to my previous post on page 1?) and Politico isn't read by Republicans anyway in addition to them not being part of the mainstream media. But, unfortunately, due to people's mistrust in news sources like the Washington Post which is mostly accurate, they go and look at what Alex Jones is saying which is 100% lies. We need an alternative, but people are to blame because the truth is too boring for them.
Click to expand...

Is that a Peter Laurie avatar? That must be the first and only such avatar on the interwebs.
---------------------
No one with any sense would trust InfoWars. They have covered actual news on occasion, but Alex Jones knows what sells, and would rather make money off lizard people stories than rely on actual fact-based news.

Excusing Politico in this instance is just wrong, and the story about them working as Clinton's personal PR team should be bigger news than it is.
 
JasperL said:
It makes no sense because you are wrong. "Oversampling" just gives them a more complete picture of the beliefs/voting intentions/important issues etc. for whatever area/demographic they are "oversampling." It's information, that's all.
Click to expand...

Thats retarded, no over sampling does no such thing. He explicitly says that its being done to " maximize what they get put of their media polling "
 
Anagram said:
There is not evidence of that. That's not what oversampling means. It has to do with sampling more of certain smaller demographics to get an accurate breakdown of them but re-weighting them in their correct proportion.

And yes you ask people, which is how we've found out more identify as Democrats.
Click to expand...

You need to read the article again it says otherwise.
Sampling bias is an issue to be concerned with.

if there i more of a slant one way than the other then we are supposed to be aware of it and question their polling data.
 
zimmer said:
These Wikileaks emails merely confirm everything anyone with an objective mind has known for years.

The so-called media is in the bag for Demokrats.

They're not journalists, they're propagandists, pushing the Demokrat agenda any which way they can.

It's one big Circle Fest, and they've been exposed with their pants down... for all to see.

Demokrat voters... an "unaware and compliant citizenry" that, if they have any intellectual integrity, must feel pretty stupid and embarrassed.

But being True Demokrats... they won't.
Click to expand...

Your signature is at least half right.
 
Fenton said:
Lol !! You dont think the Democrats know who to target ?? Seriously ?
Click to expand...

In general terms, of course they do. But how do they know how many democratic-leaning "independents" live in and around, say, San Antonio, versus Dallas and so which city should get the bulk of $10 million in media buys? Let's say they decide to spend $7 million in Dallas. Well, what ads will they run? Anti-NRA ads or ads talking about pro-choice or ads talking about immigration? Should they GUESS what undecideds are focusing on this year, pull that out of their rear ends, or maybe......hmmmmmm....here's an idea - OVERSAMPLE those areas, and democratic leaning voters to see what issues are important to them, then hammer those issues with their advertising!!! BRILLIANT!!!

Mazzie is strongly recomending over sampling of who they want to target.

He couldn't be more explicit of who they want to target . And WHY would they want to spend MORE on a demographic they knew was oversampled ??
Click to expand...

Of course he is. It's not enough to know that, say, 65% of Hispanics in San Antonio favor Hillary. You want to know all you can about Hispanics in San Antonio for probably a dozen reasons, but three are completely obvious - 1) what issues might move some of the 35% of Hispanics NOT in your corner, and 2) how likely are those supporters of you to actually VOTE, and 3) what kind of efforts will get those who support you but aren't definite voters TO THE POLLS?
 
ocean515 said:
And what did the drive by expert suddenly do when confronted with facts? :bolt

I can "almost guarantee" you a return is not imminent.

After weeks of apparent hand wringing over the facts revealed in the WikiLeaks emails, suddenly it's questionable veracity, and 'how dare you use stolen documents as proof to hold us accountable'.
Click to expand...

:applaud Your prediction has proven correct!
 
Fenton said:
Well, this shouldn't surprise anyone


New Podesta Email Exposes Dem Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples" | Zero Hedgever

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551

Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling. -Tom
Click to expand...

You should really know what you're talking about before actually talking. You should also likely understand what oversampling is and what it's used for so you don't embarrass yourself.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/we-re-in-the-universal-derp-implosion
 
Fenton said:
Thats retarded, no over sampling does no such thing. He explicitly says that its being done to " maximize what they get put of their media polling "
Click to expand...

That's exactly what oversampling does. Please stop embarrassing yourself.
 
Fenton said:
Thats retarded, no over sampling does no such thing. He explicitly says that its being done to " maximize what they get put of their media polling "
Click to expand...

Ok, so if in a statewide sample there are 12 Hispanic voters in Dallas, but an oversampling of 100 additional Hispanics in Dallas, that allows you to break that out by men/women, various age groups, whether they're new citizens or 2nd and 3rd generation tells you nothing new.... Of course it does and if you can't admit that you're just trying to bury your head in the sand.
 
Fenton said:
Well, this shouldn't surprise anyone


New Podesta Email Exposes Dem Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples" | Zero Hedgever

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551

Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling. -Tom
Click to expand...

It doesn't surprise me....Romney's campaign did their own internal polling, too.

When Internal Polls Mislead, a Whole Campaign May Be to Blame | FiveThirtyEight
 
Moot said:
It doesn't surprise me....Romney's campaign did their own internal polling, too.
Click to expand...

Lol ! Why would any campaign want to knowingly oversample one demographic compared to another ?
Other posters have claimed it was so they could target advertisment dollars more effectivley.

That is of-course retarded, so why else other than what Mazzie is explicitly refering too ?
 
Fenton said:
Lol ! Why would any campaign want to knowingly oversample one demographic compared to another ?

Other posters have claimed it was so they could target advertisment dollars more effectivley.

That is of-course retarded, so why else other than what Mazzie is explicitly refering too ?
Click to expand...

Keep digging that hole Fenton! :roll:

You do realize, I guess, that a "poll" often asks dozens of questions, right? So not only will you know that, e.g. "Hispanics" in Dallas are 65-35 for Hillary, but, say, that married Hispanic men age 35-50 are only 55-45 Hillary, then what THEY believe on key issues, which will tell you what ads might work in that area to get that demo on your side, and what might not, etc.

There has been a lot written about modern campaigns and how they're microtargeting certain demographics, not just by zip codes but by street, etc. And that tells them what mailings to send their way, whether on the ground volunteers should call them, stop by the house to get them to the polls, etc. You're demonstrating a remarkable ignorance about how campaigns work in the 21st century.
 
Last edited:
Tanngrisnir said:
That's exactly what oversampling does. Please stop embarrassing yourself.
Click to expand...

Please stop trolling. I get its your indentifying characteristic, but try to push past the impulse thats forcing you to act lik a jackass in literally every post.

Challenge yourself to be more than just the village troll
 
Fenton said:
Please stop trolling. I get its your indentifying characteristic, but try to push past the impulse thats forcing you to act lik a jackass in literally every post.

Challenge yourself to be more than just the village troll
Click to expand...

Please stop lying about trolling. You don't know what 'oversampling' means or what it's used for, based on your posts, and you're embarrassing yourself.

The only jackass here is the one who braying about something he doesn't understand, but continues to bray in any case.
 
Fenton said:
Nice try at deflection. Its not 2012, its 2016.
Click to expand...

It's not a deflection...it was meant to show you that campaigns conduct their own internal polling...and there's nothing unusual or sinister about it.

Even Trump's campaign has done internal polling...


Obama's campaign had internal polling...



Romney's internal polls showed that he was going to win, too.....

 
Last edited:
Definition of internal poll: internal survey which is taken within an institution.


"...Benchmark polls, brushfire polls and tracking polls are used by political campaigns to gauge interest in a candidate's office bid, the success of his/her messaging, and his/her weekly standing. Tracking polls may also be used by news organizations to inform their own reports of the campaign...."

https://www.boundless.com/political...ng-public-opinion-46/types-of-polls-269-1480/​


Good article...



538 doesn't use internal polls....

 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom