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The Trump Surge

Abbazorkzog said:
Hillary could have defeated Trump soundly and easily before it was exposed that she lied about her health. The second-worst candidate in electoral history has a real chance of becoming the worst, do you not realize that? Did you miss the point completely?
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That "Clintonian" pattern of behavior; tell a lie or two and only then, after too much is proven false, decide that a version of the truth must be admitted to. The idea to keep even a minor lung infection secret by offering a fictitious alternate medical condition shows that she will lie about anything.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
From your link:

A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 45-yard field goal.
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Sure, but which kicker?
 
Perotista said:
No media coverage, no money, no name recognition, most folks have never heard of him. Remember no Libertarian has ever received even one percent of the total vote in any presidential election. Only us political junkies actually know who he is. The fact he and Stein are polling approximate 12-15% is amazing and speaks to the total dislike of both Trump and Clinton. Stein is even less known than Johnson. Give either or both some media coverage and I bet they would double their polling numbers.
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Ross Perot did pretty good in the polls...and nobody knew he was. But he was such a character that he made himself known pretty quickly. Even after all these years...people still remember him. lol

But yeah...I didn't know who Stein was until a few months ago. I dunno, there's just something about the Green Party that bugs me. The fact that Libertarian Party hasn't gained a bigger foothold...suggests that most people still believe in big government and order.
 
Anybody who’s complacent about the election in just 8 weeks – believing Hillary Clinton will win because who in their right mind would vote for Trump? – hasn’t been paying attention. - Robert Reich
 
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Abbazorkzog said:
GOP gaining on Dems in voter registration in 3 battlegrounds

Not 1. Not 2.

Three.
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Democrats’ Edge in Voter Registration Is Declining, but Looks Can Be Deceiving - NYTimes.com

But a closer look, using data from state officials and from L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor, and Catalist, a Democratic data firm, shows far more favorable trends for the Democratic Party.

Democrats are actually registering more new voters than Republicans. In addition, more new voters are registering as independents. These voters are far younger and more diverse than the electorate as a whole, and they appear to lean Democratic. And although the total number of registered Democrats is falling, many of the voters switching parties probably have not voted Democratic in a presidential election in a long time — their party registration is finally catching up with how they actually vote.

These trends in voter registration aren’t being driven just by Mr. Trump. The changing tallies are a lagging indicator of what we already know: Many voters who used to consider themselves Democrats now vote Republican.
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Orly? said:
lololololool ... Yeah cause what they say matters right?
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Yes...Trump wouldn't be where he is without them.


I'm sure its the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth... Right??
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Yes.

Right because Trump passed out at the ceremony too.. No wait..
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And yet, Trump has proven himself to be "unfit to be president" mentally. For him, I think we need to see a full psychological examination and a comprehensive health report...and a tax return. Cuz he's definitely hiding something...
 
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Abbazorkzog said:
eea2df51-1569-4bc8-93de-ea5251c6b809.jpg


The Trump Surge

The Republican nominee may not be winning yet, but a series of polls show that he has drawn very close nationally and in key swing states.

Do you smell that in the air? No, it’s not the first breezes of fall. It’s the aroma of Democratic panic.

The latest trigger is a a poll that CNN released late Wednesday afternoon. The poll shows Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton 46-41 in Ohio, with Gary Johnson taking 8 percent, and Trump winning 47-44 in Florida, with Gary Johnson at 6 percent. Both figures are based on screening for likely voters, not just registered voters. A national CNN poll last week showed Trump winning by a point 49-48.

“This shouldn’t be close, but it’s close,” President Obama said at a fundraiser Tuesday night.

CNN’s poll of those two crucial battleground states is the latest in a series of polls that have shown good news for Trump. The gap between the two candidates has shrunk to one of its smallest points so far. Not since Trump’s post-Republican National Convention bump has the GOP nominee seemed to be in such a strong position. Certainly, mid-September has been decisive in presidential elections before. John McCain had built a lead over Barack Obama before the economy collapsed on September 15, 2008; McCain never recovered.​



This is bad.
Democrats, you ****ed up.
Big time.
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You think Typhoid Hillary is in trouble?
 
Complacency is certainly not what the Dems should be doing. While the electoral count isn't currently as close as the popular vote, it has been trending in Trump's favor all month.

I find 538's analysis the best and as of today they put Trump's odds of winning the electoral vote at 35.8%. Those are far from impossible or implausible odds. Here is a screenshot of the their chart tracking the electoral vote odds. Trump was tied with Hillary until his Khan and other remarks sent him plummeting. But he is now quickly catching back up. Trump could win this if he plays the debates right.

image.jpg
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
 
Unitedwestand13 said:
A bit early.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar&v=1
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In one month Clinton has dropped from a 89.2% odds to a 69.2% odds of winning. That is a 20% drop in one month, according to 538, the site you provided. She isn't losing numbers because Trump is just so much smarter than her. She is losing numbers because she screws up at every chance. If Trump gets the election it isn't because he won it, it will be because she lost it. If Trump wins it won't be that he won it, it will be that she lost it. Every move she makes turns into a **** show. This pneumonia debacle is just the latest. How many times will she back herself into a spot where she has to make the statement, "We could have handled that better"?
 
BrewerBob said:
Complacency is certainly not what the Dems should be doing. While the electoral count isn't currently as close as the popular vote, it has been trending in Trump's favor all month.

I find 538's analysis the best and as of today they put Trump's odds of winning the electoral vote at 35.8%. Those are far from impossible or implausible odds. Here is a screenshot of the their chart tracking the electoral vote odds. Trump was tied with Hillary until his Khan and other remarks sent him plummeting. But he is now quickly catching back up. Trump could win this if he plays the debates right.

View attachment 67207293
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
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Not if trumps financial troubles become news.
 
NonoBadDog said:
In one month Clinton has dropped from a 89.2% odds to a 69.2% odds of winning. That is a 20% drop in one month, according to 538, the site you provided. She isn't losing numbers because Trump is just so much smarter than her. She is losing numbers because she screws up at every chance. If Trump gets the election it isn't because he won it, it will be because she lost it. If Trump wins it won't be that he won it, it will be that she lost it. Every move she makes turns into a **** show. This pneumonia debacle is just the latest. How many times will she back herself into a spot where she has to make the statement, "We could have handled that better"?
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Trump's foundation is now under scrutiny, and trump screwed up a visit to flint by having himself being interupted mid-speech by the pastor of the church he was speaking in.
 
Unitedwestand13 said:
Not if trumps financial troubles become news.
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Perhaps. I think we are all pretty certain Trump and Hillary have more skeletons in their closets. We'll see which ones come out. We may be in for multiple"October surprises".
 
The Democrats don't want Johnson to do better. It would screw them even more if he did. He is sucking more votes away from Hillary than Trump.
The two way numbers for Clinton and Trump on RCP show Clinton 2.2 points ahead of Trump. When you look at the 4 way matchup Clinton is only ahead by 1.8 points. Stein is only pulling 1.7. Johnson is pulling 9.2 points. If Johnson were pulling points from Trump Hillary's numbers would be higher.
 
Moot said:
I'm guessing that once she gets back on the campaign trail and the public can see she's fine that her ratings will go back up...and after the debate, Trumps will go back down.

Given how much people claim to despise Trump and Clinton...I'm kinda surprised Johnson isn't doing better in the polls.
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Are you guessing, on you knees with your hands together head bowed? The best thing she can do for Trump supporters is to go back on the trail!!'
 
Unitedwestand13 said:
Trump's foundation is now under scrutiny, and trump screwed up a visit to flint by having himself being interupted mid-speech by the pastor of the church he was speaking in.
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So is Clinton's and the email thing isn't going away. I think people will become desensitized.
 
NonoBadDog said:
So is Clinton's and the email thing isn't going away. I think people will become desensitized.
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Not to mention as soon as Trump claims Florida he nets the required electoral votes to become President-Elect.

:shrug: Game over. :shrug:
 
Abbazorkzog said:
Not to mention as soon as Trump claims Florida he nets the required electoral votes to become President-Elect.

:shrug: Game over. :shrug:
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Hilliary could probably win without Ohio or Florida if her leads in Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania hold steady.
 
Unitedwestand13 said:
Hilliary could probably win without Ohio or Florida if her leads in Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania hold steady.
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Trump has a 29 Electoral Vote deficit as it stands now. Florida has 29 votes. :shrug:

Florida + one other state = that's it. Preventing him from getting these states is not a landslide at all, in any stretch, spin or tilt of the term.
 
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