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Insiders to Trump: No majority, no nomination

Objective Voice said:
Should a brokered convention take place and Republican delegates go with another candidate who received fewer delegate votes than Trump going into the Convention, the RNC wouldn't be stripping Trump of anything because he wouldn't have receive the pre-requisition number of votes to win the nomination outright - 1237. The thing people fail (or refuse) to take into account concerning both party primaries is it's not majority wins. The Primary system for both parties works in much the same way as the Electoral College does for the Presidency. You have to get to a minimum number of delegates to be declared a clear winner - 270. So, in the strictest sense, if you don't reach the magic number, you don't win. As such, just as Congress votes for who it believes should be president in a similar situation, so does each party make the same assessment by special delegate vote.
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What folks here are saying is that - while technically correct - none of those details will matter to Trump or his supporters who will simply say we got screwed and now we take our revenge.
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Harry Guerrilla said:
Has to be the dumbest thinking, in terms of strategy I've ever seen.
Trump has them by the short and curlys, wheeling and dealing with him is better than sinking the ship.
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You certainly would think so. It will be far easier to absorb another White House loss than it will be to completely rebuild the party from shambles. Going down with the ship sounds romantic - but the Titanic captain knew the value of a good lifeboat boarded in time to eat steak that weekend.
 
Harry Guerrilla said:
I think you're missing the bigger picture here.
People that are voting for Trump are moderates that don't favor illegal immigration and they won't care about the nuances of the rules.
They'll see a guy who got the most delegates and had the election stolen from him.

You'll be alienating independents and moderate republicans, for possibly decades.
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If they don't care about the rules, then that's their problem, not anyone else's. If Trump wants to be the nominee, he has to win the support of the majority of the party. The first person to do that, via the delegates, is the winner. It's a first-past-the-post system. If the majority of the party rejects him, then he doesn't get to be the nominee. Trump doesn't get to demand that the rules have to be changed to suit him because his base is too stupid to understand them, and will get upset and throw a tantrum because they didn't realize what they were ahead of time. The rules are the rules. If Trump gets to 1237, he's the nominee. If he doesn't, then whoever does get to 1237 is the nominee. For someone who is constantly telling us what a great deal-maker he is, this shouldn't be difficult.
 
cpwill said:
If they don't care about the rules, then that's their problem, not anyone else's. If Trump wants to be the nominee, he has to win the support of the majority of the party. The first person to do that, via the delegates, is the winner. It's a first-past-the-post system. If the majority of the party rejects him, then he doesn't get to be the nominee. Trump doesn't get to demand that the rules have to be changed to suit him because his base is too stupid to understand them, and will get upset and throw a tantrum because they didn't realize what they were ahead of time. The rules are the rules. If Trump gets to 1237, he's the nominee. If he doesn't, then whoever does get to 1237 is the nominee. For someone who is constantly telling us what a great deal-maker he is, this shouldn't be difficult.
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:slapme: An "I'll show you" rage fist at voters, is not smart.
Trump has got your party in a catch 22, the least worst option is best.
 
Harry Guerrilla said:
:slapme: An "I'll show you" rage fist at voters, is not smart.
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This isn't an "I'll show you". It's "The Rules Are The Rules". It would be just as problematic to change the rules now to stop Trump from getting the nomination, as it would be to change the rules to give it to him.

Nor is this "at the voters". Trump's people are not "the voters", they are a slice of "the voters", just as much as the Cruz people, or Kasich people, or even (he still has delegates) Rubio people are. "The Voters" are not making a decision - they are choosing to give minority support to everyone, (with the exception of Utah), meaning that it is increasingly plausible that we get to the convention without them having decided on a candidate. If a candidate gets to 1237, and then the nomination is taken from them, that would mean that "the voters" have been overridden.

Trump has got your party in a catch 22, the least worst option is best.
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:shrug: Republicans are indeed in trouble - but we don't know the outcome of the convention yet, so we don't know what the least worst option is yet.
 
Harry Guerrilla said:
I think you're missing the bigger picture here.
People that are voting for Trump are moderates ..
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He is pulling self identified conservative to very conservative voters, not moderates, those who are moved much more by immigration issues.
 
cpwill said:
This isn't an "I'll show you". It's "The Rules Are The Rules". It would be just as problematic to change the rules now to stop Trump from getting the nomination, as it would be to change the rules to give it to him.

Nor is this "at the voters". Trump's people are not "the voters", they are a slice of "the voters", just as much as the Cruz people, or Kasich people, or even (he still has delegates) Rubio people are. "The Voters" are not making a decision - they are choosing to give minority support to everyone, (with the exception of Utah), meaning that it is increasingly plausible that we get to the convention without them having decided on a candidate. If a candidate gets to 1237, and then the nomination is taken from them, that would mean that "the voters" have been overridden.

:shrug: Republicans are indeed in trouble - but we don't know the outcome of the convention yet, so we don't know what the least worst option is yet.
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You guys should suck it up and realize Trump is going to win the most.
These voters won't care 1 wild **** about those rules and you'd be screwing yourselves long term for "da rules."

People remember the bad, that you do to them, more than the good and that won't be forgotten.
Strategically, it's the least worst.
 
Gimmesometruth said:
He is pulling self identified conservative to very conservative voters, not moderates, those who are moved much more by immigration issues.
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Well the story I read highlighted that the people he's pulling in are moderates/independents that are generally not favorable to illegal immigration.
I'll see if I can find it.
 
haymarket said:
All of my hopes and dreams are coming true. Trump is indeed the enema that the Republican Party needs to purge itself of the infection of right libertarians and tea party know noting who have attempted to hijack the party over the last many years. And the current situation where Trump is winning and the only other alternative in sight is crazy Cruz - well that just about says it all.

The only question now becomes will this Republican party debacle also lose them Congress? The Senate most likely.... the House - thats a real longshot.
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trump is pretty much a tea party know nothing....so
 
Harry Guerrilla said:
You guys should suck it up and realize Trump is going to win the most.
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....who has argued otherwise?

These voters won't care 1 wild **** about those rules and you'd be screwing yourselves long term for "da rules."
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The rules are the rules. Recognizing the importance of Rule of Law and having solid, good, Institutions is part of what makes me a Conservative. If a section of the voters want to trash the place because they refuse to accept the rules, well, there's a place for them over in between the Occupy people and the Black Lives Matter folks.

As for them leaving the party - well, the party is already broken. The #NeverTrump folks are about a third of the party, and more in the swing states.

If the GOP loses with Trump because people abandon the GOP in droves, and loses without Trump because people abandon the GOP in droves, then the differential between those two results is not nearly large enough to justify trashing the rules, and setting up future elections for even more chaos.

People remember the bad, that you do to them, more than the good and that won't be forgotten.
Strategically, it's the least worst.
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On the contrary. Allowing the GOP to become defined by Donald Trump is strategically the worst option. Allowing him to become the face of the GOP, locking Hispanics into the Democrat Party as solidly as African Americans are currently is strategically the worst option. Losing people like the Tilley's is not at all a strategically worst option.
 
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chromium said:
trump is pretty much a tea party know nothing....so
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When the Tea Party was getting organized, Trump was out there talking about what a great President Obama was, and supporting all the bailouts and partial-nationalization that had gotten the TEA movement started.
 
cpwill said:
....who has argued otherwise?



The rules are the rules. Recognizing the importance of Rule of Law and having solid, good, Institutions is part of what makes me a Conservative. If a section of the voters want to trash the place because they refuse to accept the rules, well, there's a place for them over in between the Occupy people and the Black Lives Matter folks.



On the contrary. Allowing the GOP to become defined by Donald Trump is strategically the worst option. Allowing him to become the face of the GOP, locking Hispanics into the Democrat Party as solidly as African Americans are currently is strategically the worst option. Losing people like the Tilley's is not at all a strategically worst option.
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You guys are going to screw yourselves if you think that is better.
Lord have mercy.

I just can't understand your thinking.
It's clearly the worst option.

Edit add: if that's what you want, you deserve to lose badly.
 
cpwill said:
When the Tea Party was getting organized, Trump was out there talking about what a great President Obama was, and supporting all the bailouts and partial-nationalization that had gotten the TEA movement started.
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And then he hit pay dirt with the birther issue and the silence from the GOP was deafening and he found his party. The rest is reality show history.
 
iguanaman said:
And then he hit pay dirt with the birther issue and the silence from the GOP was deafening and he found his party. The rest is reality show history.
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I'm speculating here, but I believe the birther stuff was for starting his bid for president.
It got him enough "street cred" with the loonies in the GOP.
 
chromium said:
trump is pretty much a tea party know nothing....so
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To some extent yes - but I suspect he is far more of an unprincipled opportunist who is more than willing to use the tea party folk like toilet tissue.
 
Harry Guerrilla said:
You guys are going to screw yourselves if you think that is better.
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:shrug: the data do not support your conclusions. Take a look at the Senate and House projections if Trump is at the top of the ticket.

I just can't understand your thinking.
It's clearly the worst option.
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No, the worst option is destroying the party and leading it into a civil war, which would be the effect of a Trump candidacy, and redefining the GOP into a proto-fascist party, which would be the effect of a Trump administration. A Trump candidacy wrecks the GOP brand with key demographics, perhaps for decades.

[Typically, this is the part where you freak out over the "F" word, and I reply by listing out the definition and defining characteristics of actual, ideological, fascism, and pointing out how well they match the Trump campaign. I'm not using the word as a synonym for "thing I really don't like", I'm using it in its actual, historical, and political science context.]

Edit add: if that's what you want, you deserve to lose badly.
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I'm not losing at that point. The only way I truly, destructively, lose this election is if Trump wins the Presidency.
 
notquiteright said:
The GOP worked the meme of "Gubmint is the enemy" and fought to make Gubmint as dysfunctional as possible that they have only themselves to blame for a demigoad like Trump rising to hijack the party. I put Cruz in the same barrel, his is just a bad haircut and temper away from the Orange Guy. Instead of working to make a functional government they fought to cripple it and make it the enemy and surprise surprise they discovered when the party 'faithful' saw it as the enemy they saw the PUB leadership in the crosshairs!!!! :shock:

Bless they leedle hearts, the PUB leadership didn't think past next week for so long they are in a box of their own creation. They stayed so focused on defeating Obama and his agenda they forget the rest of the People's business- great for their radical Right base who back then thought Obama was a Kenyan Muslim- but the vast majority of citizens thought their time could be better spent. Congress's and PUB polls didn't go single digit because of 'special interests' it went south long before that became a talking point. Dysfunctional was the buzz word back then.

Who knows, if the PUBs could purge the radical right from it's ranks I just might come back to the fold. I'll wager a shiny nickle if the PUBs quit trying to build a voting block by strident ideology and instead concentrate on good governance with a concern for ALL Americans and a more level playing field- they just might win without selling out to super pacs and extremists.

Moderates and independents still are the majority- I'd like to think people looking to the future and not pining for the past are still the majority as well... :peace
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Right on!
 
cpwill said:
When the Tea Party was getting organized, Trump was out there talking about what a great President Obama was, and supporting all the bailouts and partial-nationalization that had gotten the TEA movement started.
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Trump is a businessman/showman. Of course he would say that.
 
cpwill said:
:shrug: the data do not support your conclusions. Take a look at the Senate and House projections if Trump is at the top of the ticket.
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If you're using polling data, you're in for a rude awakening.

cpwill said:
No, the worst option is destroying the party and leading it into a civil war, which would be the effect of a Trump candidacy, and redefining the GOP into a proto-fascist party, which would be the effect of a Trump administration.

[Typically, this is the part where you freak out over the "F" word, and I reply by listing out the definition and defining characteristics of actual, ideological, fascism, and pointing out how well they match the Trump campaign. I'm not using the word as a synonym for "thing I really don't like", I'm using it in its actual, historical, and political science context.]
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Trump is not fascist, not in the slightest.
If you believe him, you fail.

You're going to fall into a "civil war" regardless.
The least worse option is allowing Trump to "do his thing."

cpwill said:
I'm not losing at that point. The only way I truly, destructively, lose this election is if Trump wins the Presidency.
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You don't understand the election you are in.
You are treating this as a normal election, with a bad candidate, which it is not.
 
cpwill said:
If they don't care about the rules, then that's their problem, not anyone else's.
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NO - it will be the problem of the Republican Party and folks like yourself who support them.
 
Μολὼν λαβέ;1065701781 said:
You mean like Bush and Rubio?
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They are the GOP electorate? FFS....what a stupid frigging response.
 
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