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Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015 (Advance Estimate)

I agree - however, when someone wants to criticize Bush 43 and Republicans for "wasting" the so called Clinton surpluses and Clinton administration economy, one has to respond in kind.
Well.... ;)

Bush definitely squandered the surplus, in no small due to his policies.

I mean, come on. He's not responsible for debt incurred due to the economic downturn, but he slashed taxes while fighting two wars. Not all his decisions were bad (e.g. the tax rebate checks did act as a stimulus), but cutting taxes while waging war? Hard to see that as the epitome of fiscal responsibility.

Surely you've seen this chart before:

10-10-12bud_rev2-28-13-f2.jpg
 
Well.... ;)

Bush definitely squandered the surplus, in no small due to his policies.

I mean, come on. He's not responsible for debt incurred due to the economic downturn, but he slashed taxes while fighting two wars. Not all his decisions were bad (e.g. the tax rebate checks did act as a stimulus), but cutting taxes while waging war? Hard to see that as the epitome of fiscal responsibility.

Surely you've seen this chart before:

10-10-12bud_rev2-28-13-f2.jpg

Yes, indeed, your chart would be of great value if time and life stood still and events didn't happen in the world that sideline the best laid plans. If you'll recall, Bush 43 ran on a platform of removing America from nation building and other international activities. 9/11 kind of put the kibosh on that policy.

The fact remains, however, that the Bush tax cuts generated increased economic activity, increased employment, and increased income tax and other revenue into the federal treasury. Your chart is lax in recognizing that increase in revenue. Clearly, however, there were also increased costs to the nation related to the wars, homeland security, and other recovery initiatives necessitated both at the beginning and the end of the Bush administration. The point, however, wasn't that the Bush administration reduced debt but that the Bush administration policies improved the economy for the majority of his term in office.
 
Specifically what policies were such an abject failure?

Both tax cuts were followed by large deficits and an economically undetectable difference in GDP growth. The entire "ownership society" pushed by the Bush Administration played a roll in the mortgage crisis. Further deregulation of derivatives markets fueled the bubble (at the time it was sold as "market innovation")..... By every single measure, the Bush years were the worst performing in decades. You can't just pluck out a couple of years in the middle and ignore everything else.
 
Yes, indeed, your chart would be of great value if time and life stood still and events didn't happen in the world that sideline the best laid plans. If you'll recall, Bush 43 ran on a platform of removing America from nation building and other international activities. 9/11 kind of put the kibosh on that policy.

The fact remains, however, that the Bush tax cuts generated increased economic activity, increased employment, and increased income tax and other revenue into the federal treasury. Your chart is lax in recognizing that increase in revenue. Clearly, however, there were also increased costs to the nation related to the wars, homeland security, and other recovery initiatives necessitated both at the beginning and the end of the Bush administration. The point, however, wasn't that the Bush administration reduced debt but that the Bush administration policies improved the economy for the majority of his term in office.

Yes if we subtract all the bad things his policies resulted in (massive financial crisis, deep recession, massive layoffs, failed wars....) what is left is good. Kind of like judging the Hoover years while leaving out the market crash and Great Depression. Its incredible the results one can get when they throw intellectual honesty out the window..

All one has to do is look at GDP growth by year to see where your argument is flawed. He never enjoyed the kind of sustained growth his predecessor did:

imrs.php
 
Yes, indeed, your chart would be of great value if time and life stood still and events didn't happen in the world that sideline the best laid plans. If you'll recall, Bush 43 ran on a platform of removing America from nation building and other international activities. 9/11 kind of put the kibosh on that policy.
Err, what? The chart is from 2013, long after those policies went into effect. It's not making an assessment based on Bush's policies before 9/11, and it's not like Bush backed down on his tax cuts after starting his second war, either.


The fact remains, however, that the Bush tax cuts generated increased economic activity, increased employment, and increased income tax and other revenue into the federal treasury.
Uh, no, that's not much of a fact. Revenues went up, not because "tax cuts stimulate spending!" but because the real estate and finance bubbles were generating lots of economic activity. Since he didn't create the bubble, it doesn't make sense to credit his policies for the fiscal effects of that bubble.

That kind of supply-side thinking -- that tax cuts pay for themselves -- has no real evidentiary basis. The closest you might get to that is when tax rates are extremely high. The Laffer Curve makes sense when top marginal tax rates are closer to 90% than 35%. (cf http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/17/upshot/tax-cuts-still-dont-pay-for-themselves.html?_r=0 for a fairly typical summary of the arguments)

Some of his tax cuts helped the economy, but very little. E.g. the 2008 rebate check was a stimulus program, cast as a tax cut. However, all it did was give GDP a tiny boost for one quarter. Most of the tax cuts went to the wealthy, who already tend to hoard most of their cash. Since they don't spend it, it does not significantly improve the economy.

Keep in mind that interest rates were also exceptionally low during that period -- and that wasn't a Bush policy as much as a Greenspan one. E.g. claims that cutting corporate taxes would provide more capital for investment doesn't make much sense, when it is so incredibly cheap to borrow instead, and provides potential tax breaks to boot.

Last but not least, almost none of the Bush tax cuts were repealed during the Obama years. Why wasn't the recovery faster, then? Why didn't the economy come roaring back? Are the economic benefits of a tax cut limited to, say, 5 years after they start? Does their benefit end, when the President who signed them leave office?

Or, in classic webspeak: "Correlation does not prove causation."


Your chart is lax in recognizing that increase in revenue.
Erm.... Yeah, that's not the purpose of the chart. It's showing how Bush's policies had long-term effects on public debt.

We should also note that -- surprise! -- we went from a surplus to massive deficits and debts during his term, and the effects of his policy choices and the recession extended well into the Obama years. His tax cuts remained, the wars he started continued, Medicare Part D was not going away.

I.e. even if we accept your claim that "the economy was great because of Bush's policies," you'd still have to recognize that those same policies don't produce sustained growth, and dramatically increased federal debt. What's the phrase? Robbing Peter to pay Paul? ;)


Clearly, however, there were also increased costs to the nation related to the wars, homeland security, and other recovery initiatives necessitated both at the beginning and the end of the Bush administration. The point, however, wasn't that the Bush administration reduced debt but that the Bush administration policies improved the economy for the majority of his term in office.
Or, he got lucky, and happened to be President at a time when the economy was in one of the biggest bubbles in modern history.
 
Not quite true. While revenue did decrease a little, spending increased at the same time. Which at the very least means spending is as much to blame.

year-revenue-outlays

2001 1,991,082 1,862,846
2002 1,853,136 2,010,894
2003 1,782,314 2,159,899
2004 1,880,114 2,292,841

Furthermore, non tax policy economic circumstances had a greater effect on revenue during that time, according to the CBO, about 2-1.

https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/f...12/reports/06-07-ChangesSince2001Baseline.pdf

Yes, the tax cuts accounted for $1.5T taken from the federal coffers over 10 years.

Legislative
EGTRRA -70 -31 -84 -101 -100 -126 -142 -151 -158 -176 -117 -1,186
JGTRRA 0 0 - 53 -135 - 78 - 21 - 14 - 17 - 11 - 4 4 -328

https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/f...12/reports/06-07-ChangesSince2001Baseline.pdf

Income tax revenue actually dropped by 25% after the tax cuts, and then lagged thereafter as income tax revenue went from 8.7% before the cuts to 7.4% after. Don't kid yourself, it was significant.

Bush Tax Cuts.jpg


So we are clear, I am not trying blame the debt run-up on tax cuts, but it was a major contributor. The idea of starting two wars and financing those wars with tax cuts was just.... well, a special kind of genius.
 
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Both tax cuts were followed by large deficits and an economically undetectable difference in GDP growth. .

Not exactly true. The immediate impact was a dip in revenue, but after a couple years the budget was almost balanced. Then the recession hit

But, if that tax policy was so awful, why did the Democrats stick with them when they controlled the Gov.t in 2008?
 
Yes, the tax cuts accounted for $1.5T taken from the federal coffers over 10 years.

Legislative
EGTRRA -70 -31 -84 -101 -100 -126 -142 -151 -158 -176 -117 -1,186
JGTRRA 0 0 - 53 -135 - 78 - 21 - 14 - 17 - 11 - 4 4 -328

https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/f...12/reports/06-07-ChangesSince2001Baseline.pdf

Income tax revenue actually dropped by 25% after the tax cuts, and then lagged thereafter as income tax revenue went from 8.7% before the cuts to 7.4% after. Don't kid yourself, it was significant.


So we are clear, I am not trying blame the debt run-up on tax cuts, but it was a major contributor. The idea of starting two wars and financing those wars with tax cuts was just.... well, a special kind of genius.

Not 25%, 70bn of 1991 billion is 3%. A 25% drop would have reduced revenue by 500 billion. And I think you mean 1.5 trillion less was taken from taxpayers, not federal coffers. It was never in the coffers.

It wasnt significant given the govt collected 25 trillion in the same time period. Tax revenue was back to where it was 3 years later. Had the govt not increased spending at the same time, we would have a balanced budget. They should have cut other spending instead. Furthermore, the tax cuts preceded the wars, they werent funding for them. Two seperate issues.
 
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Yes, the tax cuts accounted for $1.5T taken from the federal coffers over 10 years.
s.

Interesting way to verbalize that. OF course no money was taken from any coffers. LOL. Stupid.
It's as if the federal gov't has a right to your money and any time they let you keep it, they are doing you a huge favor!
 
Interesting way to verbalize that. OF course no money was taken from any coffers. LOL. Stupid.
It's as if the federal gov't has a right to your money and any time they let you keep it, they are doing you a huge favor!

Yes, some people like to think all taxes are 100%, and they 'give' you 80% off.
 
There is not an economist in the country that blames the Dot com bubble on federal spending. Such an argument is absurd. The only correlation between government action (outside the fed) and the dot com bubble is the taxpayer relief act of 1997 which cut capital gains taxes.

What you do not seem to understand is that monetary and fiscal policy interact with regards the economy albeit with different impacts, which is because one tends to hit the real sector, while the other more the financial one. When both are expansive, though, they will tend to enhance activity beyond sustainability. When and where the troubles will unfold and by which mechanism, which external shock will trigger the rough patch are different every time and generally hard to time. But it will will always have a hangover, when the party breaks up.

So, when the conditions are good, the country can and in the Greenspan/Clinton era should have reduced the double barreled stimulus and they should have done so early on in Clinton's administration instead of later, when Greenspan did start to reduce the stimulus. Why the twosome acted this way was explainable. Inflation of physical goods remained low so that Greenspan saw only irrational exuberance and not inflation, which would have forced his hand to reduce monetary stimulus.This would have angered the "It's the economy stupid" President, that was spending more than he should have been in such exuberant circumstances. This allowed the bubble to grow till something popped it.

BTW, I did a quick Google to see how you came up with the idea that "not an economist in the country" attributes the expansive policies in the 1990s. The only thing I could see, was that you might have gotten that impression from the fact, that most articles that are not blatantly partisan are technical and or usually focused on only aspects of the situation like monetary or fiscal policy. In that case it means that one requires a wider reading list and good experience in applied economics in markets. But the story is there, if one is willing to look at the whole evidence. And that means a lot of reading.
 
Yep, my exact argument in 2000 when Bush wanted to cut taxes to return the surplus to the taxpayers. Of course, this was his campaign platform. When the economy went into recession, he changed his argument to tell us that same tax cut would stimulate the economy...

We do know, however, the same taxcut did what was originally intended, take money from the federal coffers and run up the debt.

It is certainly untrue that a tax cut would throw a balanced economy into recession. The problem at the time was, however, that the economy was not in a steady state but in the late stages of a vast financial bubble. Here is a very nice article from the period. It short and focuses mostly on Greenspan's activity, but it presents the build up to the first wave of the problems into whose third wave we are possibly now entering.
The Politically Talented Mr. Greenspan | Economic Policy Institute
 
Agreed. Reduce spending, AND while it's growing we should raise taxes too. Not a lot, but a little. Perfect example is right now gas is dirt cheap. Putting a $.05 tax on every gallon wouldn't hurt a bit, but it would get a nice bump in revenues for our aging and crumbling infrastructure.

Exactly. Once gas prices drop to a certain point an automatic tax should be put on not only gas but imported oil. Say for every 10cents of drop you add a 5cent tax. The federal government should tax the crude oil and the state should tax the finished product say diesel and gasoline. This money should be used only for infrastructure.

The problem is the money will go for government raises, Platinum insurance plans, platinum retirement plans. and friends and family of the government. The other thing is when the price goes back up the tax is automatically removed. Which never happens because the money is now part of the government workers gravy train ususally.

IIRC the last time the gas tax was raised was in the 90's. No one likes more taxes. But 20+ years the gas tax hasn't be raised? Even a penny? $.05?

You can't raise taxes on a product that is already too high and hurting the economy. It is only now that prices have fallen that you should tax oil and gas. However lets tax the oil and gas that is imported and the oil and gas we export. The export tax will force oil companies to refine the oil here as well as the keep the jobs here. The import tax will keep our oil and gas the better value for refining into goods here as well. The answer is to keep people working and use the money to benefit We the People not an over bloated and over paid government.
 
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Exactly. Once gas prices drop to a certain point an automatic tax should be put on not only gas but imported oil. Say for every 10cents of drop you add a 5cent tax. The federal government should tax the crude oil and the state should tax the finished product say diesel and gasoline. This money should be used only for infrastructure.

That sounds like a guaranteed mess. In a time where we are already spending trillions on infrastructure. Why is the solution always higher taxes, more spending? It hasnt fixed the problem. Why would we do it again?
 
Exactly. Once gas prices drop to a certain point an automatic tax should be put on not only gas but imported oil.
Good luck with that


The problem is the money will go for government raises, Platinum insurance plans, platinum retirement plans. and friends and family of the government.
Uh.... Yeah, that's not how it actually works.

A gas tax can be dedicated to a specific function (e.g. highway programs) or to general revenues. The idea that an increase in tax revenues would go to benefits for government employees is beyond absurd.


You can't raise taxes on a product that is already too high and hurting the economy. It is only now that prices have fallen that you should tax oil and gas. However lets tax the oil and gas that is imported and the oil and gas we export. The export tax will force oil companies to refine the oil here as well as the keep the jobs here.
lol

That type of protectionism really doesn't work. As long as domestic energy is more expensive than foreign energy supplies, tacking on small tariffs here and there won't change the fundamental laws of supply and demand. It can even trigger off retaliatory tariffs by other nations.

In fact, that type of protectionist nonsense was one of the main reasons why the Great Depression was so disastrous for the US economy. Politicians whacked big tariffs on foreign goods, with the idea it would encourage domestic production and consumption. Instead, foreign nations whacked their own tariffs on US goods, which damaged exports made by the US, and wound up harming the US economy far more than it helped.
 
That sounds like a guaranteed mess. In a time where we are already spending trillions on infrastructure. Why is the solution always higher taxes, more spending? It hasnt fixed the problem. Why would we do it again?

In the 60s we spent 3 times as much money on our roads when adjust for GDP and for value of the dollar. We need to get back to the days when money was spent making America great. Today instead of spending money for the next upgrade to our transportation the way the highway system was we are spending the money so people don't have to work. It is time to get back to providing jobs not welfare.
 
Good luck with that



Uh.... Yeah, that's not how it actually works.

A gas tax can be dedicated to a specific function (e.g. highway programs) or to general revenues. The idea that an increase in tax revenues would go to benefits for government employees is beyond absurd.

Dream on. The gas tax here in PA will not repair the roads tore up by the oil and gas industry. Nor will it fix back the environment destroyed by these energy companies. It will go to pay for our children education. At least that is the half truth being spread anyway. The fact is teachers and every one else working for any part of our education system will get raises, health care, and retirement plans with this money. Our property taxes wont be lowered, our kids will not get new schools or better books/computers. We heard the same lies when they brought in gambling, the lottery and everything else they lied to us about.
.[/QUOTE]
 
That type of protectionism really doesn't work. As long as domestic energy is more expensive than foreign energy supplies, tacking on small tariffs here and there won't change the fundamental laws of supply and demand. It can even trigger off retaliatory tariffs by other nations.

In fact, that type of protectionist nonsense was one of the main reasons why the Great Depression was so disastrous for the US economy. Politicians whacked big tariffs on foreign goods, with the idea it would encourage domestic production and consumption. Instead, foreign nations whacked their own tariffs on US goods, which damaged exports made by the US, and wound up harming the US economy far more than it helped.

The fact is it is other countries currently playing with the pricing. The price is artificially low thanks to countries flooding the market with extra oil. The fact that we take advantage of such market manipulation by others is a feather in our cap. We need to look out for and do what is best for our country.
 
Dream on. The gas tax here in PA will not repair the roads tore up by the oil and gas industry. Nor will it fix back the environment destroyed by these energy companies.
To be clear, I have no idea how PA allocates its gas taxes. A bit too lazy to look it up, too. ;) I'm only pointing out that it is irrational, and without basis, to claim that any increase in gas taxes will be spent on perks for state employees.


It will go to pay for our children education. At least that is the half truth being spread anyway. The fact is teachers and every one else working for any part of our education system will get raises, health care, and retirement plans with this money.
On one hand, you may be correct. If PA does allocate gas taxes to education, then part of that will go to paying teachers. What a thought.

However, pay for teachers is based not on tax revenues, but negotiations with the union (PSEA?). Some of it will go elsewhere.

PA public school teachers are not exactly fat cats. The average pay is around $55,000/year, a little better than the national average. Their pensions are underfunded.


Our property taxes wont be lowered, our kids will not get new schools or better books/computers. We heard the same lies when they brought in gambling, the lottery and everything else they lied to us about.
Almost all of the casino / gambling expansions in PA started around the time the recession really hit, i.e. at a time when state tax revenues cratered due to the recession.

Lotteries don't make all that much for the states (and are essentially a regressive tax). E.g. of the $58 billion collected by state lotteries, only $17 billion went to the various states; PA only netted $915 million that year, divided among 5 programs. Given that PA's total budget that year was around $28 billion, the lottery covered about 3.25%.

It is not a surprise that, given how the recession affected state tax revenues, you didn't explicitly notice small dents in state tax revenues. But, hey! Government! Lies!!! Much sexier.
 
In the 60s we spent 3 times as much money on our roads when adjust for GDP and for value of the dollar. We need to get back to the days when money was spent making America great. Today instead of spending money for the next upgrade to our transportation the way the highway system was we are spending the money so people don't have to work. It is time to get back to providing jobs not welfare.

You took the peak number when they first built the highways. According to the CBO, we spend more than that even now.

Capture.JPG

And thats just highway fund. All infrastructure spending has tripled in real adjusted dollars.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/49910
 
Not 25%, 70bn of 1991 billion is 3%. A 25% drop would have reduced revenue by 500 billion. And I think you mean 1.5 trillion less was taken from taxpayers, not federal coffers. It was never in the coffers.

It wasnt significant given the govt collected 25 trillion in the same time period. Tax revenue was back to where it was 3 years later. Had the govt not increased spending at the same time, we would have a balanced budget. They should have cut other spending instead. Furthermore, the tax cuts preceded the wars, they werent funding for them. Two seperate issues.

You are co-mingling social security receipts with Fed Income Taxes. Fed Income collections dropped from $1T in 2000, before the cuts to $793B in 2003. I do stand corrected as the drop was more like 22% than 25%, but it was significant nonetheless.... When the government elects to take less money (when it needs it), its the equivalent of a business slashing its prices knowing that will not lead to more customers. It is electing to take a pay cut.

I quipped about the tax cuts funding the wars. Of course they didn't. However, we have never waged a war and cut taxes simultaneously. That tandem is what caused most of our financial mess (we went from budget balanced in 2000 to substantial deficits).Deficit - Cost of Preident Policies.jpg
 
Interesting way to verbalize that. OF course no money was taken from any coffers. LOL. Stupid.
It's as if the federal gov't has a right to your money and any time they let you keep it, they are doing you a huge favor!

That is operating on the misguided assumption that the gross wages on your W-2 or the revenue of your company is all YOUR money. Of course, conservatives understand business and personal responsibility so surely they get that such is not true. The know they're is a cost of wages and a cost revenue that, while flows through their books, is not their money.

Consider the wage earner:

1) he can thank the government for enforcing its labor laws that not only ensure fair pay and safe work conditions, but ensure that the worker is not exploited by long, arduous hours and the employer actually pays the worker his wage;
2) consider the nice roads you traveled on to get to the place of employment;
3) consider the fine education you received that qualified you to earn a living;
4) consider the police that protected you from being robbed or murdered for your wages on payroll day;
5) the banking system that serves to protect your money, even if your bank should close;
6) the health departments that ensured you food at lunch was safe to eat;
7) the various licensing agencies that ensured your dentist and doctor were qualified to provide your health care;
8) the FAA,TSA and NTSB, that ensured you safe travel home on your business trip (not to mention building both of the airports you travelled from)
9) Our incredible national forests and park service that serve to steward our natural resources and beauty;
10) the fire department and ambulance services that protect you and your property;
11) our court system that hears the grievances you have with your neighbor, who enforces rent from your tenants, not to mention protects you from the government seizing your property or liberty without due process;
12) Our military, who protects our whole system from those outside that would want our property or liberty.

These things all have costs. Costs that the citizens must share. This is why every dollar of your paycheck is NOT yours, but some of it belongs to the community, because the community allowed you to earn that paycheck. Now, we can argue over how much of your paycheck the community is entitled and what we expect the community to do with and for that money, but there is no rational argument that some of the paycheck is the community's.
 
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It is certainly untrue that a tax cut would throw a balanced economy into recession. The problem at the time was, however, that the economy was not in a steady state but in the late stages of a vast financial bubble. Here is a very nice article from the period. It short and focuses mostly on Greenspan's activity, but it presents the build up to the first wave of the problems into whose third wave we are possibly now entering.
The Politically Talented Mr. Greenspan | Economic Policy Institute

I'm sure you enjoyed this passage from your article as much as I....

".... In effect, Clinton spent much of his presidency shortchanging the Democratic Party’s constituency so he could pay down the debts run up by his two Republican predecessors. As a result, George Bush II is the lucky recipient of a massive fiscal surplus, which he fully intends to use for military spending and tax cuts to promote the interests of the Republicans’ higher-income clientele...."
 
On average we have a recession every 7-8 years. We're overdue anyway.

Assuming you accept the notion that the last one ever ended. While it did end technically. It didn't end and put us into a good economy.
 
Assuming you accept the notion that the last one ever ended. While it did end technically. It didn't end and put us into a good economy.

It did end. The economy is in pretty good shape, and the unemployment rate is in very good shape. I'm just guessing here, but your disagreement is probably based on politics. But I'll believe the facts and figures.
 
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