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Jeb Bush Rises to Second Place in New Hampshire Poll

CanadaJohn said:
That could be. We'll see. President Hillary Clinton was the nominee in waiting throughout 2007 and into early 2008 as well.
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Oh, I know. I gotcha. I'm not voting for either one of them. :mrgreen:
 
Bush isn't my candidate of choice but there are a lot of good things he accomplished you can point to during his time as governor in Florida. One that I really admire him for is how he cleaned up the courts and appointed good sound choices on the bench.
 
CanadaJohn said:
I always find it amusing and somewhat strange that Americans strive to be the largest influence in the world and yet question whenever a non-American comments on that influence. Americans have their fingers in everyone else's business, yet they're insulted or put out if someone outside comments on theirs. Odd.
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I think he was joking, CJ. :)

Tim-
 
vesper said:
Bush isn't my candidate of choice but there are a lot of good things he accomplished you can point to during his time as governor in Florida. One that I really admire him for is how he cleaned up the courts and appointed good sound choices on the bench.
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Me and some friends were having a discussion on which candidate has the best chance to get things done regardless of whether or not you agree with their positions. Bush was towards the top of the list.
 
CanadaJohn said:
Once the Republican field gets winnowed out, Jeb's numbers will look better. Not hard for Hillary's numbers to be where they're at when she has been considered the only real option for Democrats this time around. The fact someone like Sanders is going to hand her her lunch in Iowa and NH is pretty telling.
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you have been touting Jeb for months

the only one who doesnt know he is done is you

he is at best in 4th place....at best

the race will come down to Trump, Cruz, and Rubio

and right now, though i wish differently, it looks like Trump may keep the momentum all the way through

you are riding a dead horse.....
 
CanadaJohn said:
It's a small, local NH poll but it's the kind of poll I've been touting for some time as being more indicative of what is happening in various States as opposed to what the National polls by large polling companies show.

Jeb Bush Rises To Second Place In New Hampshire Poll

Trump - 35%

Bush - 18%

Kasich - 14%

Could be good news for those, like myself, expecting and hoping that the Republican race starts to get serious and the circus clowns are relegated to the sidelines while the adults choose a competent, respectful, decent nominee for the Presidency of your great country.
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I have to admit, I had been assuming Jeb was the smooth talking talented brother.
I thought that right up to when he started campaigning and regularly talking on the trail.
He's an awkward haltingly talking fellow.
His gestures don't match the words he's saying.
That makes for a bad impression.
 
What do you know, Bush still has enough cash left to buy a poll. :mrgreen:
 
azgreg said:
I don't think I've ever seen such a well financed and poorly run campaign before.
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Really? He's not spending that much money in comparison to Clinton and Bush.... or even Cruz. He gets a lot of free publicity.
 
CanadaJohn said:
Two points:

1. In most of the local polls, in NH - not the big national polls for the networks or national newspapers, Bush has been solidly in the second group behind Trump, within percentage points of Carson, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, who've all be hovering around the 12% to 8% range.

2. Bush has been running some very effective ads in NH the past month - ask DP members who live there - and they're timed to be effective in the run up to the NH primary.

The poll is an outlier, but NH breaking late is not unusual.
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New Hampshire's breaking late and the quality of Bush's ads could help him. Nevertheless, especially if Donald Trump is not present at the debate, Bush will need to have a strong showing with the extra speaking time he will enjoy. He needs to be able to clearly, concisely, and coherently lay out a substantive vision tied to his experience to differentiate himself from Cruz's revolutionary message and the limited experience of most of his other rivals. If he has a weak performance or his message is muddled, even if he has the strongest governance record among his rivals, he could well face a renewed reversal in the modest gains he has begun to make. A weak communicator won't make it. At this time, I still believe his prospects of winning the nomination are very low. Senator Rubio, even with his lesser experience, has a much better chance.
 
Dittohead not! said:
Oh, I don't find it insulting at all, quite the opposite in fact. Yet, a Trump presidency, for example, would have a much bigger impact on the US than it would on Canada, yet people here seem to be OK with it.
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Donald Trump, as a liberal Democrat, is anti free trade and as such could potentially have serious impact on the Canadian economy which relies heavily on US/Canada trade. That's just one issue. For better or worse, American policy affects other countries to a greater or lesser extent. As the old saying goes, "when the US sneezes, Canada catches a cold".
 
vesper said:
Bush isn't my candidate of choice but there are a lot of good things he accomplished you can point to during his time as governor in Florida. One that I really admire him for is how he cleaned up the courts and appointed good sound choices on the bench.
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And if anyone wasn't thinking about appointments to the US Supreme Court as an issue for this Presidential election, Hillary Clinton's musings about appointing Barack Obama to the Supreme Court should send a chill up the spine of any American who values the law and justice.
 
gdgyva said:
you have been touting Jeb for months

the only one who doesnt know he is done is you

he is at best in 4th place....at best

the race will come down to Trump, Cruz, and Rubio

and right now, though i wish differently, it looks like Trump may keep the momentum all the way through

you are riding a dead horse.....
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I'm sure those backing Rudy Guilianni and Howard Dean around this time in 2007 had similar thoughts to yours.
 
donsutherland1 said:
New Hampshire's breaking late and the quality of Bush's ads could help him. Nevertheless, especially if Donald Trump is not present at the debate, Bush will need to have a strong showing with the extra speaking time he will enjoy. He needs to be able to clearly, concisely, and coherently lay out a substantive vision tied to his experience to differentiate himself from Cruz's revolutionary message and the limited experience of most of his other rivals. If he has a weak performance or his message is muddled, even if he has the strongest governance record among his rivals, he could well face a renewed reversal in the modest gains he has begun to make. A weak communicator won't make it. At this time, I still believe his prospects of winning the nomination are very low. Senator Rubio, even with his lesser experience, has a much better chance.
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All fair points, but the debates to date have been anything but serious discussions of the issues that face America going forward. Most of the discussion has been about what Trump has said or done or some other gotcha quote someone else put out, such as Cruz "carpet bombing" the Middle East. The debates so far have basically been a pilot for the new Trump reality show "Celebrity Bitch-Slap".

Jeb Bush will never be the gregarious good old boy that his brother George was - he's much more like his father. If America wants a serious President with serious ideas and one who can work with others of contrasting views in order to get things done, then Bush is an excellent choice. So far, many Americans, or at least the loudest Americans led by an irresponsible media, aren't so interested in that type of candidate. We'll see how it goes after New Hampshire.

And I'd just add that Republicans seriously have to consider the consequences to their hold on the two houses of Congress and the future of the Supreme Court when they choose their candidate for the Presidency. Losing the White House this time with a candidate that turns off large chunks of the populace could be disastrous.
 
CanadaJohn said:
And if anyone wasn't thinking about appointments to the US Supreme Court as an issue for this Presidential election, Hillary Clinton's musings about appointing Barack Obama to the Supreme Court should send a chill up the spine of any American who values the law and justice.
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that is one of hillary's few good proposals
appoint to the court a Constitutional scholar whose administration was not marred by corruption
a man who demonstrated common sense as well as an advocacy for fair dealings

Michelle should be appointed sec treasury to oversee the food stamp program ... and eliminate junk foods from food stamp eligibility while eliminating subsidies to the corporate farmers
 
CanadaJohn said:
All fair points, but the debates to date have been anything but serious discussions of the issues that face America going forward. Most of the discussion has been about what Trump has said or done or some other gotcha quote someone else put out, such as Cruz "carpet bombing" the Middle East. The debates so far have basically been a pilot for the new Trump reality show "Celebrity Bitch-Slap".

Jeb Bush will never be the gregarious good old boy that his brother George was - he's much more like his father. If America wants a serious President with serious ideas and one who can work with others of contrasting views in order to get things done, then Bush is an excellent choice.
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An effective communicator need not be the most eloquent communicator. When it comes to his speaking time, if Bush is asked a question about tax policy, he should summarize his tax proposal and explain how it would contribute to the nation's growth. In other words, he should focus on policy. Given how few of the other candidates have devoted much time to substance, he has had a rich opportunity to stand out. So far, he hasn't taken advantage of it. If one reads his website, he has some serious ideas that he could easily lay out. Most of the nation's voters almost certainly do not visit candidates' websites to look for details, hence it is incumbent on the candidates to make their cases.

Tonight, he should forget Trump, forget Cruz, forget Rubio. He should strictly focus on where the U.S. is, what it needs, and how he would deliver it. He should get into some level of detail (major points) Let the others go after one another. My guess is that he won't. Just saying he has led successfully before isn't enough. Conveying how the combination of his leadership experience and his policy ideas will benefit the nation is what he needs to do.

Losing the White House this time with a candidate that turns off large chunks of the populace could be disastrous.
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Absolutely. Unfortunately, I don't believe the RNC understands this nor many of the pundits do (some of whom are cheerleading the two most anti-Establishment candidates). Trump and Cruz (but Trump to a much larger extent) are effectively rebranding the Party in a potentially damaging fashion. In the wake of Trump or Cruz led electoral defeat, it is possible that the Democratic Party could become the de facto national party. Over time, single party dominance leads to stagnation. Strong competition keeps things dynamic and allows for flexibility to change when circumstances require it. That kind of dynamism and flexibility could be lost if, let's say, Trump wins the nomination and is defeated in a near-nationwide landslide.
 
CanadaJohn said:
And if anyone wasn't thinking about appointments to the US Supreme Court as an issue for this Presidential election, Hillary Clinton's musings about appointing Barack Obama to the Supreme Court should send a chill up the spine of any American who values the law and justice.
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And I hope that, if she isn't indicted and forced out of the race, that she continues saying she'll consider that. That will all on it's own, lose the general for her.
 
justabubba said:
that is one of hillary's few good proposals
appoint to the court a Constitutional scholar whose administration was not marred by corruption
a man who demonstrated common sense as well as an advocacy for fair dealings

Michelle should be appointed sec treasury to oversee the food stamp program ... and eliminate junk foods from food stamp eligibility while eliminating subsidies to the corporate farmers
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One of the finest troll posts in DP history - well done!!
 
donsutherland1 said:
An effective communicator need not be the most eloquent communicator. When it comes to his speaking time, if Bush is asked a question about tax policy, he should summarize his tax proposal and explain how it would contribute to the nation's growth. In other words, he should focus on policy. Given how few of the other candidates have devoted much time to substance, he has had a rich opportunity to stand out. So far, he hasn't taken advantage of it. If one reads his website, he has some serious ideas that he could easily lay out. Most of the nation's voters almost certainly do not visit candidates' websites to look for details, hence it is incumbent on the candidates to make their cases.

Tonight, he should forget Trump, forget Cruz, forget Rubio. He should strictly focus on where the U.S. is, what it needs, and how he would deliver it. He should get into some level of detail (major points) Let the others go after one another. My guess is that he won't. Just saying he has led successfully before isn't enough. Conveying how the combination of his leadership experience and his policy ideas will benefit the nation is what he needs to do.



Absolutely. Unfortunately, I don't believe the RNC understands this nor many of the pundits do (some of whom are cheerleading the two most anti-Establishment candidates). Trump and Cruz (but Trump to a much larger extent) are effectively rebranding the Party in a potentially damaging fashion. In the wake of Trump or Cruz led electoral defeat, it is possible that the Democratic Party could become the de facto national party. Over time, single party dominance leads to stagnation. Strong competition keeps things dynamic and allows for flexibility to change when circumstances require it. That kind of dynamism and flexibility could be lost if, let's say, Trump wins the nomination and is defeated in a near-nationwide landslide.
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I agree with all you've posted.
 
clownboy said:
And I hope that, if she isn't indicted and forced out of the race, that she continues saying she'll consider that. That will all on it's own, lose the general for her.
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On the contrary, that could potentially bring out all the black voters who are likely going to largely sit out this election otherwise. It could be a stroke of genius, politically, and a dagger in the chest for the Supreme Court if the Republicans lose the Senate too as a result of an idiotic Trump nomination.
 
donsutherland1 said:
Tonight, he should forget Trump, forget Cruz, forget Rubio. He should strictly focus on where the U.S. is, what it needs, and how he would deliver it. He should get into some level of detail (major points) Let the others go after one another. My guess is that he won't. Just saying he has led successfully before isn't enough. Conveying how the combination of his leadership experience and his policy ideas will benefit the nation is what he needs to do.
.
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His leadership is ancient history, and no one thinks that Florida has been one of the better run states anyways. As for his plans, almost no one cares about them, Cruz and Trump have the slimmest plans and they are winning. Bush is now being openly mocked for his detailed plans, his "policy book" , as the guy who is out there working oh so hard at all the wrong stuff because he is trying to cover up the fact that he sucks at the right stuff.This guy wants to collect A's for effort even though his work sucks just as Hillary does.

"NEXT!"
 
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It really doesn't make a difference, none of them are even within spitting distance of Trump and second place in any election means effectively nothing. Trump's lead is only growing.
 
CanadaJohn said:
On the contrary, that could potentially bring out all the black voters who are likely going to largely sit out this election otherwise. It could be a stroke of genius, politically, and a dagger in the chest for the Supreme Court if the Republicans lose the Senate too as a result of an idiotic Trump nomination.
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It could also have the opposite effect. Black voters haven't been too happy with Obama when it comes to "black issues". And a SCOTUS appointment isn't the black guy against the white guy election model.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
The only polls that matter are called elections.
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I know you would like to believe that, but it ain't true.

Election outcomes are often the result of polls as much as anything. The polling factors into how much energy people put in to going to the polls, who they vote for (if their guy is polling low single digits, then many will be voting for their #2, knowing their favorite guy is a lost cause), the money that is made available to candidates (who wants to give a candidate going nowhere money?) and the tactics candidates employ (including how they spend their money) leading up to the election.

Though the vote is the final result, don't think the actual vote isn't highly influenced before hand by the polls.
 
Cephus said:
It really doesn't make a difference, none of them are even within spitting distance of Trump and second place in any election means effectively nothing. Trump's lead is only growing.
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Yes, but lessons need to be learned, people need to understand what has happened, what is happening. Right now I am seeing far too few who are connected to reality, who have the smarts to figure stuff out for themselves when power is lying to them. That needs to change.
 
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