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2014 Social Security Trustees Report

Um, what math? I gave you the math. What math are you talking about?
So why would I look at the math, if you admit you're not sure what the math is?

20 years is plenty of time when you understand how Social Security works. Congress could pass a law tomorrow which would make the Trust Fund solvent for the next ~75 years, which shows you how little of a problem this truly is, as long as Congress does their job. And since Social Security is a pay as you go system, there really isn't much of a danger for the next 15+ years.


If you are not interested that is fine too. But then, I don't understand why you posted at all. The fact that payments are already coming out of taxes, the size of these payments will grow steadily till they reach 77% of social security payments (in addition to the contributions being made to the program by the insured) and will then reduce payments to the recipients is non ground for complacency. Do you have any comprehension of what the implications are for an economy that is already heavily in debt and is running a deficit of the size we are? Such equanimity might have been acceptable before 2007, though even then it would have shown a very low understanding of the dynamics involved. But now it is irresponsible. Absolute irresponsibility.
 
Bah, Its a simple fix for the government. Just have them infuse the trust fund with more money. I'm sure they can get a loan for it from China. They know we're good for it!
 
If you are not interested that is fine too. But then, I don't understand why you posted at all.
Because people have absolutely no idea how Social Security works and become alarmists for no reason. So I try to shoot down the false sense of danger.

The fact that payments are already coming out of taxes
Like they always have. That's exactly how the system is set up.

the size of these payments will grow steadily till they reach 77% of social security payments (in addition to the contributions being made to the program by the insured)
What? This sentence of yours makes absolutely no sense. Who is the "insured"?

and will then reduce payments to the recipients is non ground for complacency.
Maybe you don't understand. We can pay full benefits from Social Security for the next 20 years, without having to do ANYTHING (theoretically, since the economy is never completely stable and prone to positive and negative swings). 20 years, full payment, no problem.

We have 20 years to figure out and pass a law which allows us to meet the full financial obligation. Congress could pass a law tomorrow and by Friday we could have SS payed for for the next ~75 years. And even if no law is EVER passed, we STILL can afford to pay out over 75% of benefits as defined under law.

Yeah, it would suck for those receiving SS to only get 77% of what is legally promised to them under law, but it's not like they are going to get nothing. Social Security is a pay as you go system. There will never be a time where people aren't getting paid anything.

Do you have any comprehension of what the implications are for an economy that is already heavily in debt and is running a deficit of the size we are?
Do you have any idea what you are talking about? How does debt/deficit have anything to do with Social Security, when Social Security can ONLY be funded, under current law, by payroll taxes?

Such equanimity might have been acceptable before 2007, though even then it would have shown a very low understanding of the dynamics involved. But now it is irresponsible. Absolute irresponsibility.
No, what's irresponsible is how some Chicken Littles run around claiming the sky is falling and do not seem to understand what the acorn really is.

I'll try one more time to explain it to you, because I do not get the feeling you truly understand how Social Security works.

1. Current workers pay payroll taxes. These taxes are set aside specifically, and only, for Social Security.
2. Social Security payments are made from today's employees' payroll taxes.
2a. For example, if I'm working and you're drawing SS, the tax I pay in my next check theoretically goes straight to you.
3. The excess of payroll taxes paid went into the Trust Fund. For simplicity's sake, the Trust Fund does NOT pay Social Security benefits unless the amount of taxes is not enough to cover the amount of benefits.
4. We are currently in a situation where taxes to not make enough to pay out benefits, so we are now tapping into the Trust Fund after the decades of overpayments which were made.
5. We have enough in the Trust Fund to supplement current worker taxes to pay full benefits for the next 20 years.
6. If no law is changed, if the economy does not go through a prosperous period or anything which affects how long we can make payments, then those collecting Social Security will STILL receive over 75% of the benefits owed to them. The amount SS collects in taxes will be enough to still payout 75% of benefits on time.
7. Since the Trust Fund is ONLY used to supplement payroll taxes, any law passed which brings the amount collected in payroll taxes even with the amount paid in benefits means the Trust Fund will no longer be drained.


This is why having 20 years to do something about it really isn't something to become alarmed over. If we passed a law changing Social Security now or passed one in ten years, it will have absolutely no change in reality.
 
I seem to remember back in the mid 70's we were told that the SS fund would be completely depleted by the mid 90's. Didn't happen. If it was a real problem, why didn't the politicians deal with it at that time. The short answer is the SS is a campaign talking point for both sides. The main problem is the American people took money out of the fund and replaced it with IOU's via the politicians. Now it's time to replace those IOU's with real money. If we keep re-electing the same politicians over and over the problems will never be fixed.
 
6. If no law is changed, if the economy does not go through a prosperous period or anything which affects how long we can make payments, then those collecting Social Security will STILL receive over 75% of the benefits owed to them. The amount SS collects in taxes will be enough to still payout 75% of benefits on time.

As an economist I was most interested in the economics of Pension schemes. The exact details are important for precise predictions. That is why I pointed out that I knew those for two countries and had only cursorily looked at the US system. In looking at it, the dynamic was such, that I saw no reason to think it would work better that the other systems I know well.

The System will cause massive problems within a relatively short period. Anyone that has ever had to do with national accounts and growth will see this in minute. Whether the initial crunch is because this or that part of it breaks and how or the insured just lose there payments is a different story and uninteresting to me at this point. But I did look briefly at the official ssa link and found this sentence that makes your assertion look very optimistic, indeed:
"In the annual Trustees Report, projections are made under three alternative sets of economic and demographic assumptions. Under one of these sets (labeled "Low Cost") the trust funds remain solvent for the next 75 years. Under the other two sets (the "Intermediate" and "High Cost"), the trust funds become depleted within the next 20 years. The intermediate assumptions reflect the Trustees' best estimate of future experience."
 
My thoughts come from the idea that politicians are more interested in votes than governing. I'm one of those 50 year olds you are talking about and since I see what's happening I have taken my retirement into my own hands. I will not need my SS benefits to get by. If they are there than nice, but I'm not counting on it.

The issue for politicians of voters is about participation. At 2033, the percentage of registered and active voters is 45% or so. Every year that percentage rises... How long do you think that audience will put up with "So we have nearly 20 years to raise taxes/cut benefits before benefits get automatically cut to a smaller amount?"
 
I seem to remember back in the mid 70's we were told that the SS fund would be completely depleted by the mid 90's. Didn't happen. If it was a real problem, why didn't the politicians deal with it at that time. The short answer is the SS is a campaign talking point for both sides. The main problem is the American people took money out of the fund and replaced it with IOU's via the politicians. Now it's time to replace those IOU's with real money. If we keep re-electing the same politicians over and over the problems will never be fixed.

No. I do not think anyone thought that at that time. In the 1980's, however, it was quite clear that it would run into problems later, when the Baby-Boomers went into retirement, if nothing was done to stop that from happening.
 
No, I'm just not freaking out about it. You and I have discussed this already.

No, it's not even close because the person knows at the bottom of the next 19 floors is the very end. In 20 years, Social Security will not be at its end. Why you continue to try and push this false narrative, when you clearly know better, is beyond my understanding.

It is because I know that the narrative "So we have nearly 20 years to raise taxes/cut benefits before benefits get automatically cut to a smaller amount? " is complete non-sense. It is silly. If benefit cuts are OK, we can have smaller ones today. It isn't a reasoned argument, it is the politics of delay.
 
No. I do not think anyone thought that at that time. In the 1980's, however, it was quite clear that it would run into problems later, when the Baby-Boomers went into retirement, if nothing was done to stop that from happening.

I forgot about the Baby Boomers, they're mostly a worthless bunch, not all but a large amount. But they didn't stop dipping their fingers in the till.
 
That's not true. There is a growing disparity in life expectancy between the haves and the have-nots. Yes, conservatives say we need to raise the retirement age to 67 on janitors because lawyers are living longer.

Moreover, even if the trust fund reserves are depleted in 2033, SSA will still be able to pay about 2/3 of the benefits. But the solutions are what really doesn't make sense, which is to cut benefits now so we won't have to cut them in the future.

One of us has actually traded emails with SSA about this subject. They say that there is actually a slight difference, but that the impact of shorter life expectancy is offset by the higher collection rate on disability.

Who are you kidding. The figure is about 77% of promised beneifts. If that is OK, let's have 85% of promised benefits today. It is an absurdly dishonest argument.

But the solutions are what really doesn't make sense, which is to cut benefits now so we won't have to cut them in the future.

So the conclusion is to .... ignore the problem. The system is a vital program, and yet you treat it as though it were nothing but a pot of cash to throw around on current voters.
 
Bah, Its a simple fix for the government. Just have them infuse the trust fund with more money. I'm sure they can get a loan for it from China. They know we're good for it!

Print money that will solve everything.... You don't appreciate things until they are gone, and SS is going to be one of them.
 
Because people have absolutely no idea how Social Security works and become alarmists for no reason. So I try to shoot down the false sense of danger.

Like they always have. That's exactly how the system is set up.

What? This sentence of yours makes absolutely no sense. Who is the "insured"?

Maybe you don't understand. We can pay full benefits from Social Security for the next 20 years, without having to do ANYTHING (theoretically, since the economy is never completely stable and prone to positive and negative swings). 20 years, full payment, no problem.

We have 20 years to figure out and pass a law which allows us to meet the full financial obligation. Congress could pass a law tomorrow and by Friday we could have SS payed for for the next ~75 years. And even if no law is EVER passed, we STILL can afford to pay out over 75% of benefits as defined under law.

Yeah, it would suck for those receiving SS to only get 77% of what is legally promised to them under law, but it's not like they are going to get nothing. Social Security is a pay as you go system. There will never be a time where people aren't getting paid anything.

Do you have any idea what you are talking about? How does debt/deficit have anything to do with Social Security, when Social Security can ONLY be funded, under current law, by payroll taxes?

No, what's irresponsible is how some Chicken Littles run around claiming the sky is falling and do not seem to understand what the acorn really is.

I'll try one more time to explain it to you, because I do not get the feeling you truly understand how Social Security works.

1. Current workers pay payroll taxes. These taxes are set aside specifically, and only, for Social Security.
2. Social Security payments are made from today's employees' payroll taxes.
2a. For example, if I'm working and you're drawing SS, the tax I pay in my next check theoretically goes straight to you.
3. The excess of payroll taxes paid went into the Trust Fund. For simplicity's sake, the Trust Fund does NOT pay Social Security benefits unless the amount of taxes is not enough to cover the amount of benefits.
4. We are currently in a situation where taxes to not make enough to pay out benefits, so we are now tapping into the Trust Fund after the decades of overpayments which were made.
5. We have enough in the Trust Fund to supplement current worker taxes to pay full benefits for the next 20 years.
6. If no law is changed, if the economy does not go through a prosperous period or anything which affects how long we can make payments, then those collecting Social Security will STILL receive over 75% of the benefits owed to them. The amount SS collects in taxes will be enough to still payout 75% of benefits on time.
7. Since the Trust Fund is ONLY used to supplement payroll taxes, any law passed which brings the amount collected in payroll taxes even with the amount paid in benefits means the Trust Fund will no longer be drained.


This is why having 20 years to do something about it really isn't something to become alarmed over. If we passed a law changing Social Security now or passed one in ten years, it will have absolutely no change in reality.

Actually....

waiting 10 years will mean that the problem has grown. This is one of the things you clearly do not understand. The Trustees said that this year the size of the problem grew 900 billion dollars, just because we changed the calendar year from 2012 to 2013.
 
I seem to remember back in the mid 70's we were told that the SS fund would be completely depleted by the mid 90's. Didn't happen. If it was a real problem, why didn't the politicians deal with it at that time. The short answer is the SS is a campaign talking point for both sides. The main problem is the American people took money out of the fund and replaced it with IOU's via the politicians. Now it's time to replace those IOU's with real money. If we keep re-electing the same politicians over and over the problems will never be fixed.

In 1977, Jimmy Carter signed a reform plan which 'guaranteed' the system would be solvent into the 2030s. Six years later the system was insolvent. So the Trust Fund was COMPLETELY DEPLETED only it was 10 years before. The politicians did something. They advanced the system cash and borrowed from the DI fund.

What you call IOUs, investment professionals call cash-equivalents. Replacing them with cash only means that the system has a $24 trillion dollar shortfall. The Trust Fund is little more than economic parsley.
 
Print money that will solve everything.... You don't appreciate things until they are gone, and SS is going to be one of them.

Well...that IS how the government thinks after all. Unless of course there is a political advantage to decrying it.
 
One of us has actually traded emails with SSA about this subject. They say that there is actually a slight difference, but that the impact of shorter life expectancy is offset by the higher collection rate on disability.

Who are you kidding. The figure is about 77% of promised beneifts. If that is OK, let's have 85% of promised benefits today. It is an absurdly dishonest argument.
1. There is no debate as to whether life expectancy is income dependent. There is research on this (see: Trends in Mortality Differentials and Life Expectancy for Male Social Security Covered Workers, by Average Relative Earnings)
the top half of the average relative earnings distribution has experienced faster mortality improvement than has the bottom half. Specifically, male Social Security–covered workers born in 1941 who had average relative earnings in the top half of the earnings distribution and who lived to age 60 would be expected to live 5.8 more years than their counterparts in the bottom half.
That means that proposals to raise the Social Security eligibility age works against low income workers, who need Social Security the most.

So the conclusion is to .... ignore the problem. The system is a vital program, and yet you treat it as though it were nothing but a pot of cash to throw around on current voters.
No, what I am saying is that right-wingers have always been looking for excuses to cut entitlements and ultimately eliminate them. Considering that there is no crisis for decades, let's address more vital crises, such as climate change, that have a much more devastating outcome and needs to be addressed right now.

I read your threads which seems to all have a boner for Social Security, which has no crisis at hand.
 
As an economist I was most interested in the economics of Pension schemes. The exact details are important for precise predictions. That is why I pointed out that I knew those for two countries and had only cursorily looked at the US system. In looking at it, the dynamic was such, that I saw no reason to think it would work better that the other systems I know well.

The System will cause massive problems within a relatively short period. Anyone that has ever had to do with national accounts and growth will see this in minute. Whether the initial crunch is because this or that part of it breaks and how or the insured just lose there payments is a different story and uninteresting to me at this point. But I did look briefly at the official ssa link and found this sentence that makes your assertion look very optimistic, indeed:
"In the annual Trustees Report, projections are made under three alternative sets of economic and demographic assumptions. Under one of these sets (labeled "Low Cost") the trust funds remain solvent for the next 75 years. Under the other two sets (the "Intermediate" and "High Cost"), the trust funds become depleted within the next 20 years. The intermediate assumptions reflect the Trustees' best estimate of future experience."

You really ought to look at the intermediate assumptions. Historically they have consistently overestimated the exhaustion point of the Trust Fund. The system has lost about 25 years of projected solvency over the past 30
 
Well...that IS how the government thinks after all. Unless of course there is a political advantage to decrying it.

The problem with the idea is that the government does not fund Social Security. It is a fiduciary. The terms of the system are simple. You contribute today, and a future generation might contribute for you. There is no printed money in that equation. Millions of Americans aren't eligible for Social Security, and there is no reason that the government should print money.
 
If you're under 45 years of age, it's prudent to assume you will not be getting SS benefits anywhere near what are currently offered retirees. In fact, I have assumed zero SS as I'm 47. My investment strategy also assumes zero SS benefit, so if it's still there - swell. If not, no big deal.
 
I forgot about the Baby Boomers, they're mostly a worthless bunch, not all but a large amount. But they didn't stop dipping their fingers in the till.

Social Security pre-dates the boomers birth. Medicare came in during the mid-60s when the oldest boomer was about 18. So if we are going to talk about generational finger dipping....
 
If you're under 45 years of age, it's prudent to assume you will not be getting SS benefits anywhere near what are currently offered retirees. In fact, I have assumed zero SS as I'm 47. My investment strategy also assumes zero SS benefit, so if it's still there - swell. If not, no big deal.

I am glad that you have prepared. The vast majority of your generation hasn't. Intergenerational savings studies show that there is a declining level of preparedness for retirement. I hope that your plan includes caring for your parents when their benefits are cut back.
 
I am glad that you have prepared. The vast majority of your generation hasn't. Intergenerational savings studies show that there is a declining level of preparedness for retirement. I hope that your plan includes caring for your parents when their benefits are cut back.

Yep already have that covered - both living and death benefits as well as coverage for inheritance taxes etc. I'm hoping we didn't forget anything.
 
I forgot about the Baby Boomers, they're mostly a worthless bunch, not all but a large amount. But they didn't stop dipping their fingers in the till.

Wicked finger dippers they are. And you ain't seen nothin' yet.
 
As an economist I was most interested in the economics of Pension schemes. The exact details are important for precise predictions. That is why I pointed out that I knew those for two countries and had only cursorily looked at the US system. In looking at it, the dynamic was such, that I saw no reason to think it would work better that the other systems I know well.
So you don't know what you're talking about, and not bothering to find out what you're talking about, but you are still arguing it anyways?

I don't understand that mentality.

The System will cause massive problems within a relatively short period.
Which can be rectified in an even shorter period, which is why I'm not alarmed.

Anyone that has ever had to do with national accounts and growth will see this in minute.
You don't even know what you are talking about, by your own admission. Why do you say things like this, when you are clearly and admittedly speaking from ignorance?

But I did look briefly at the official ssa link and found this sentence that makes your assertion look very optimistic, indeed:
"In the annual Trustees Report, projections are made under three alternative sets of economic and demographic assumptions. Under one of these sets (labeled "Low Cost") the trust funds remain solvent for the next 75 years. Under the other two sets (the "Intermediate" and "High Cost"), the trust funds become depleted within the next 20 years. The intermediate assumptions reflect the Trustees' best estimate of future experience."
How does that make my assertion look optimistic, when it's EXACTLY what I've been saying over and over again?

It amazes me how people will cling to ignorance.
It is because I know that the narrative "So we have nearly 20 years to raise taxes/cut benefits before benefits get automatically cut to a smaller amount? " is complete non-sense. It is silly. If benefit cuts are OK, we can have smaller ones today.
Why would we cut benefits today? That doesn't make any sense.

Why would you cut benefits to save yourself from cutting benefits? THAT'S complete non-sense. Your "the sky is falling" rhetoric is ridiculous. We have TWENTY YEARS of paying full benefits before we have to worry about cutting benefits (or, alternatively, raising taxes). Obviously we don't want to wait until the last minute, but we have TWENTY YEARS. We have plenty of time, especially when a change can essentially be made overnight.

It isn't a reasoned argument, it is the politics of delay.
It's neither, it's simply an accurate description of where we are at.
 
You really ought to look at the intermediate assumptions. Historically they have consistently overestimated the exhaustion point of the Trust Fund. The system has lost about 25 years of projected solvency over the past 30

I haven't followed the US projections very carefully. But it was to be expected that projections would tend to be optimistic. Nobody wants to put himself under pressure.
One reason for the shortened period might also be that the birth rates have fallen more than was officially expected.
 
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