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Thread: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

  1. #61
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    Re: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

    The music eventually stops on all Ponzi schemes.

  2. #62
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    Re: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    Correct. Over the next 20 years, they will continue to adjust the tax cap and benefits on an annual basis, with projections indicating that the 2.7 trillion in private trust fund bonds will need to be redeemed over that time for public bonds. I'm not 100% sure if the trust fund value(2.7 trillion) includes the interest earned on the face value of the bonds, so its possible that its worth closer to 3 trillion.
    This is not correct. The projection is an outcome within a single possible economy. They use reasonable assumptions to create the theoretical economy, and say in that economy the Trust Fund would be exhausted in 2033. They equally project that the Trust Fund might be completely exhausted in 2027 in the economy does not cooperate.

    These comments come from SSA :

    "The Trustees do not claim certainty in the future estimates reported under any set of assumptions. The text on page 11 refers to estimates based on the intermediate assumptions; that is, the future scenario the Trustees expect “most likely” to occur. The beginning of Chapter V (page 77) discusses the various sets of deterministic assumptions in more detail. For ease of reading, the report does not qualify each statement about future estimates with words such as “projected” or “under the intermediate assumptions” where we believe the intent is clear.

    The figure on page 185 results from a stochastic modeling exercise designed to illustrate the uncertainty associated with the estimates obtained using the intermediate assumptions. As you state, the chart shows that the Trustees expect trust fund reserves to be positive until 2033 with about a 50% probability. Note that as you might expect, this stochastic result is entirely consistent with the result under the deterministic intermediate assumptions."

  3. #63
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    Re: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    I have traded emails with SSA about the certainty of their projections. I suggested that their wording will create some misconceptions. They replied that there is no misconception, basically no one can reach the conclusion that you have stated.


    The conclusion I have stated is the exact one stated in the reports. As I've already said, no one can predict the future, but the current knowledge (under current law and with the current economic situation) says we can continue to pay full benefits for the next roughly 20 years.

    Once more, you are intentionally trying to be misleading, for reasons I still don't understand.

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    Re: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyfox696 View Post


    The conclusion I have stated is the exact one stated in the reports. As I've already said, no one can predict the future, but the current knowledge (under current law and with the current economic situation) says we can continue to pay full benefits for the next roughly 20 years.

    Once more, you are intentionally trying to be misleading, for reasons I still don't understand.
    Given what you have said suggests that there is a lot about the subject of Social Security. Again the words aren't mine. They come from the Social Security Administration. Now I will say that I read the wording of the Trustees, and took time to tell them that their words could be misunderstood. What they have said is basically, only if you have the urge to misunderstand.

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