Page 5 of 7 FirstFirst ... 34567 LastLast
Results 41 to 50 of 64

Thread: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

  1. #41
    Guru

    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Last Seen
    12-01-17 @ 12:03 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    2,650

    Re: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

    Quote Originally Posted by joG View Post
    As an economist I was most interested in the economics of Pension schemes. The exact details are important for precise predictions. That is why I pointed out that I knew those for two countries and had only cursorily looked at the US system. In looking at it, the dynamic was such, that I saw no reason to think it would work better that the other systems I know well.

    The System will cause massive problems within a relatively short period. Anyone that has ever had to do with national accounts and growth will see this in minute. Whether the initial crunch is because this or that part of it breaks and how or the insured just lose there payments is a different story and uninteresting to me at this point. But I did look briefly at the official ssa link and found this sentence that makes your assertion look very optimistic, indeed:
    "In the annual Trustees Report, projections are made under three alternative sets of economic and demographic assumptions. Under one of these sets (labeled "Low Cost") the trust funds remain solvent for the next 75 years. Under the other two sets (the "Intermediate" and "High Cost"), the trust funds become depleted within the next 20 years. The intermediate assumptions reflect the Trustees' best estimate of future experience."
    You really ought to look at the intermediate assumptions. Historically they have consistently overestimated the exhaustion point of the Trust Fund. The system has lost about 25 years of projected solvency over the past 30

  2. #42
    Guru

    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Last Seen
    12-01-17 @ 12:03 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    2,650

    Re: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Kal'Stang View Post
    Well...that IS how the government thinks after all. Unless of course there is a political advantage to decrying it.
    The problem with the idea is that the government does not fund Social Security. It is a fiduciary. The terms of the system are simple. You contribute today, and a future generation might contribute for you. There is no printed money in that equation. Millions of Americans aren't eligible for Social Security, and there is no reason that the government should print money.

  3. #43
    Noblesse oblige
    Ockham's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    New Jersey
    Last Seen
    01-27-17 @ 07:23 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian - Right
    Posts
    23,909
    Blog Entries
    4

    Re: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

    If you're under 45 years of age, it's prudent to assume you will not be getting SS benefits anywhere near what are currently offered retirees. In fact, I have assumed zero SS as I'm 47. My investment strategy also assumes zero SS benefit, so if it's still there - swell. If not, no big deal.
    I think if Thomas Jefferson were looking down, the author of the Bill of Rights, on whats being proposed here, hed agree with it. He would agree that the First Amendment cannot be absolute. - Chuck Schumer (D). Yet, Madison and Mason wrote the Bill of Rights, according to Sheila Jackson Lee, 400 years ago. Yup, it's a fact.


  4. #44
    Guru

    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Last Seen
    12-01-17 @ 12:03 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    2,650

    Re: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

    Quote Originally Posted by BMCM View Post
    I forgot about the Baby Boomers, they're mostly a worthless bunch, not all but a large amount. But they didn't stop dipping their fingers in the till.
    Social Security pre-dates the boomers birth. Medicare came in during the mid-60s when the oldest boomer was about 18. So if we are going to talk about generational finger dipping....

  5. #45
    Guru

    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Last Seen
    12-01-17 @ 12:03 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    2,650

    Re: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Ockham View Post
    If you're under 45 years of age, it's prudent to assume you will not be getting SS benefits anywhere near what are currently offered retirees. In fact, I have assumed zero SS as I'm 47. My investment strategy also assumes zero SS benefit, so if it's still there - swell. If not, no big deal.
    I am glad that you have prepared. The vast majority of your generation hasn't. Intergenerational savings studies show that there is a declining level of preparedness for retirement. I hope that your plan includes caring for your parents when their benefits are cut back.

  6. #46
    Noblesse oblige
    Ockham's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    New Jersey
    Last Seen
    01-27-17 @ 07:23 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian - Right
    Posts
    23,909
    Blog Entries
    4

    Re: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    I am glad that you have prepared. The vast majority of your generation hasn't. Intergenerational savings studies show that there is a declining level of preparedness for retirement. I hope that your plan includes caring for your parents when their benefits are cut back.
    Yep already have that covered - both living and death benefits as well as coverage for inheritance taxes etc. I'm hoping we didn't forget anything.
    I think if Thomas Jefferson were looking down, the author of the Bill of Rights, on whats being proposed here, hed agree with it. He would agree that the First Amendment cannot be absolute. - Chuck Schumer (D). Yet, Madison and Mason wrote the Bill of Rights, according to Sheila Jackson Lee, 400 years ago. Yup, it's a fact.


  7. #47
    Sage

    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Last Seen
    Today @ 03:13 PM
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    43,253

    Re: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

    Quote Originally Posted by BMCM View Post
    I forgot about the Baby Boomers, they're mostly a worthless bunch, not all but a large amount. But they didn't stop dipping their fingers in the till.
    Wicked finger dippers they are. And you ain't seen nothin' yet.

  8. #48
    Sage
    Slyfox696's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Last Seen
    Today @ 03:39 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Moderate
    Posts
    7,966

    Re: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

    Quote Originally Posted by joG View Post
    As an economist I was most interested in the economics of Pension schemes. The exact details are important for precise predictions. That is why I pointed out that I knew those for two countries and had only cursorily looked at the US system. In looking at it, the dynamic was such, that I saw no reason to think it would work better that the other systems I know well.
    So you don't know what you're talking about, and not bothering to find out what you're talking about, but you are still arguing it anyways?

    I don't understand that mentality.

    The System will cause massive problems within a relatively short period.
    Which can be rectified in an even shorter period, which is why I'm not alarmed.

    Anyone that has ever had to do with national accounts and growth will see this in minute.
    You don't even know what you are talking about, by your own admission. Why do you say things like this, when you are clearly and admittedly speaking from ignorance?

    But I did look briefly at the official ssa link and found this sentence that makes your assertion look very optimistic, indeed:
    "In the annual Trustees Report, projections are made under three alternative sets of economic and demographic assumptions. Under one of these sets (labeled "Low Cost") the trust funds remain solvent for the next 75 years. Under the other two sets (the "Intermediate" and "High Cost"), the trust funds become depleted within the next 20 years. The intermediate assumptions reflect the Trustees' best estimate of future experience."
    How does that make my assertion look optimistic, when it's EXACTLY what I've been saying over and over again?

    It amazes me how people will cling to ignorance.
    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    It is because I know that the narrative "So we have nearly 20 years to raise taxes/cut benefits before benefits get automatically cut to a smaller amount? " is complete non-sense. It is silly. If benefit cuts are OK, we can have smaller ones today.
    Why would we cut benefits today? That doesn't make any sense.

    Why would you cut benefits to save yourself from cutting benefits? THAT'S complete non-sense. Your "the sky is falling" rhetoric is ridiculous. We have TWENTY YEARS of paying full benefits before we have to worry about cutting benefits (or, alternatively, raising taxes). Obviously we don't want to wait until the last minute, but we have TWENTY YEARS. We have plenty of time, especially when a change can essentially be made overnight.

    It isn't a reasoned argument, it is the politics of delay.
    It's neither, it's simply an accurate description of where we are at.

  9. #49
    Sage

    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Last Seen
    Today @ 03:13 PM
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    43,253

    Re: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    You really ought to look at the intermediate assumptions. Historically they have consistently overestimated the exhaustion point of the Trust Fund. The system has lost about 25 years of projected solvency over the past 30
    I haven't followed the US projections very carefully. But it was to be expected that projections would tend to be optimistic. Nobody wants to put himself under pressure.
    One reason for the shortened period might also be that the birth rates have fallen more than was officially expected.

  10. #50
    Sage

    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Last Seen
    Today @ 03:13 PM
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    43,253

    Re: 2014 Social Security Trustees Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyfox696 View Post
    So ......
    That was a well chosen word.

Page 5 of 7 FirstFirst ... 34567 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •