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Thread: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Carleen View Post
    I'm in my seventies, so the chances I'll be around after 2030 doubtful.
    Far from doubtful. You expect to live another 15 years. So there is a fair change that you will be around. You certainly have friends who will be around. So let's think about someone beyond ourselves.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyfox696 View Post
    Are you claiming Social Security doesn't work mostly as a pay as you go system?

    The fact is today's payroll taxes pay for today's beneficiaries. Unlike what most people think, which is my contributions today go to my retirement tomorrow, Social Security is essentially a pay as you go system. Why is there a deadline on solvency? Because the amount being paid out is/will be greater than what's taken in. However, there's nothing which says it must continue that way. That was the point of the link, if I'm not mistaken.
    Yes, after a long history of more being paid in than was paid out. I suspect it will continue to go back and forth over time, where payouts and taxes are adjusted as needed.

    It is? When did I offer any solution? No, my point from the very beginning was that your headline was entirely misleading and that Social Security is not, and theoretically cannot be, going bust.
    No, I'm not claiming that, certainly historically it did, however, on an increasing basis that's less the case. As technological advances continue to extend life expectancy, are we going to continue to allow people to stop working and begin drawing out of it at 62? The rest of my post, the part you didn't comment on, provides just one example of what's harming SS.
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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    Far from doubtful. You expect to live another 15 years. So there is a fair change that you will be around. You certainly have friends who will be around. So let's think about someone beyond ourselves.
    My children are not relying on Soc Sec. They are aware of what is happening. I have confidence that solutions will be found beyond 2030.
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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Carleen View Post
    My children are not relying on Soc Sec. They are aware of what is happening. I have confidence that solutions will be found beyond 2030.
    Family is another question. I am speaking about friends, who you hypothetically care about.

    On what basis do you believe that solutions will be found?

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    No, I'm not claiming that, certainly historically it did, however, on an increasing basis that's less the case. As technological advances continue to extend life expectancy, are we going to continue to allow people to stop working and begin drawing out of it at 62? The rest of my post, the part you didn't comment on, provides just one example of what's harming SS.
    Early retirement is a nightmare for SS as far as I can tell. But I think that it is a cliché to blame longer life expectancy for Social Security's problems. Most of the analysis uses the wrong data points, and fails to look at both contributions and benefits. Here is an article on the possibilities. It isn't saying that longer life expectancy does not hurt Social Security. It says we don't know what the impact is. Yes people will collect more, but they will contribute more. Statistically, people born after 1960 still lose money even with longer life expectancies. So the reasoning seems to stem from politicians looking for an excuse.

    The Impact of Life Expectancy on Social Security : FedSmith.com

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    So much of this campaign to cause people to lose faith in Social Security is part of a very cynical design that becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. For those not familiar with the concept, please read this

    Self-fulfilling prophecy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    If the haters of SS and the just plain far right who want to weaken faith in government as an institution keep repeating often enough that SS is broke and you will not get your money someday and enough people believe it and do not clamor for reform like popping the cap to bring in new funds - it will indeed have the effect of making it easier for slimy politicians to turn their backs on the promise and renege on citizens in the future.

    Keep repeating something often enough and sooner or later it can begin to have an impact on belief. That is the goal here make no mistake about it.

    Politicians today know that if they dared to try to end the stem now their would be electoral hell to pay for them and their careers. So the third rail remains intact and fully powered up to fry anybody who dare touch it. But keep spreading the crap and fight reform at the same time while convincing younger people it is fated that they get screwed - then it makes it so much easier down the road to make them open their mouths and swallow even if they do not like the medicine.

    Shame on anybody participating in this effort.
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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    Family is another question. I am speaking about friends, who you hypothetically care about.

    On what basis do you believe that solutions will be found?
    Solutions have to be found. If you don't believe that than you have no faith in this country.
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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket View Post
    So much of this campaign to cause people to lose faith in Social Security is part of a very cynical design that becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. For those not familiar with the concept, please read this

    Self-fulfilling prophecy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    If the haters of SS and the just plain far right who want to weaken faith in government as an institution keep repeating often enough that SS is broke and you will not get your money someday and enough people believe it and do not clamor for reform like popping the cap to bring in new funds - it will indeed have the effect of making it easier for slimy politicians to turn their backs on the promise and renege on citizens in the future.

    Keep repeating something often enough and sooner or later it can begin to have an impact on belief. That is the goal here make no mistake about it.

    Politicians today know that if they dared to try to end the stem now their would be electoral hell to pay for them and their careers. So the third rail remains intact and fully powered up to fry anybody who dare touch it. But keep spreading the crap and fight reform at the same time while convincing younger people it is fated that they get screwed - then it makes it so much easier down the road to make them open their mouths and swallow even if they do not like the medicine.

    Shame on anybody participating in this effort.
    This isn't a Self-fulfilling prophecy. It is a cry in the wilderness of someone with self-validation issues. It literally says shame on anyone who disagrees with me.

    The irony of your post is that you seek to end Social Security. Here is AJ Altmeyer on Social Security, "A sound contributory social insurance system has four main characteristics. First, it provides for benefits on a specific and predetermined basis. Second, it provides these benefits as a matter of right without a means or a needs test. Third, it finances these benefits largely out of contributions made by or on behalf of the beneficiaries. Fourth, it provides a long-range systematic method of financing rather than a year-to-year unsystematic method." You don't like any of these things, and you are trying to shame people who disagree with you.

    Here is what FDR said : "FDR said, “I guess you’re right on the economics. They are politics all the way through. We put those pay roll contributions there so as to give the contributors a legal, moral, and political right to collect their pensions and their unemployment benefits. With those taxes in there, no damn politician can ever scrap my social security program. Those taxes aren’t a matter of economics, they’re straight politics.” You are the damn politician that FDR spoke of. You want to make the system a public dole. Something the crafters rejected. Altmeyer again : "I believe that I am safe in saying that the people of this country, that the Congress of the United States, and that the members of this Committee favor a system of contributory social insurance for providing protection against the inevitable economic hazards that beset the workers of this country, rather than a Government dole"

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    It could be worse. It could be just an estimate that has lost 10 years of solvency over the last 3. Oh wait. That is what it is. I have a serious question. At what point will you make Social Security a voting priority.
    There's nothing I can do by voting when it comes to Social Security, as long as the government does nothing about the budget and spending as whole first. Almost every candidate for federal office already promises to make Social Security solvent and preserve it for future generations. How am I supposed to use what they say as the truth, when if they get elected and they get to DC, they bend to pressures to spend money like its going to die off and become extinct if they don't spend it all right now?

    It takes more than just making it a voting priority. It takes the government following their own laws; they don't have a good record of doing that lately - at all.
    Everything in your life is a reflection of a choice you have made. If you want a different result, don't blame someone else, or expect others to make a change, you should stop complaining and make a different choice. Remember, the circumstances of your birth don't determine the outcome of your life.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyfox696 View Post
    How does a pay as you go system go bust? Misleading headline is misleading.
    Under our current system, you'd still be able to draw Social Security. The question would simply be how much.
    We may be able to draw, and it may or may not be much that we can draw, but the question is will the money we draw be coming from the SS Fund (which may become insolvent) or from the General Budget?
    Everything in your life is a reflection of a choice you have made. If you want a different result, don't blame someone else, or expect others to make a change, you should stop complaining and make a different choice. Remember, the circumstances of your birth don't determine the outcome of your life.

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