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Thread: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

  1. #31
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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    I have to guess that you picked 16% out of a hat.
    Uh, did you not read your own source?

    Considering the two trust funds together, to bring the OASDI program as a whole into actuarial balance through 2087 with the taxable maximum set according to current law (labeled Option 1 in Tables 1 and 2), the combined OASDI payroll tax rate could be
    permanently increased by about 3.5 percentage points, by CBO’s estimate. Under that option, the combined OASDI payroll tax rate would rise from 12.4 percent to 15.9 percent in 2015.
    http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/fil...-QFR_Hatch.pdf

    So, no, it wasn't out of a hat, it was based on your source. You know, the one you used to create the misleading headline.

    We shouldn't pretend that we have any idea where Social Security is going regardless of what the headline says.


    So when you want to push the narrative that SS is going bust it's okay to use the CBO's numbers, but when it comes time to play the hypothetical scenario game, suddenly the CBO's numbers aren't good enough?

    You are basically suggesting that future voters are going to be more willing to pay taxes that we wouldn't.
    No, I'm telling you that claiming a pay as you go system is going bust is false and pushes a false narrative toward people who don't seem to understand how Social Security works. You shouldn't do that. You should educate, not spread FUD.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    Yeah, like when I go to mcdonalds and give them cash, and I get a free lunch!
    Compare that with food stamps.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    The Ponzi scheme has been dead for nearly 50 years. People born in 1960 expect to get less back from SS than they contribute. If the ratio is the problem, why did SS reach insolvency in 1983? Who are you talking about when you say that people have been added?
    SSDI etc ... there are people that are pulling out of the ss fund that never contributed.
    it isn't dead it still continues on.

    not to mention that the government owes the SS fund trillions of dollars. I know where the bonds are held as well. they are useless to anyone but the SS fund but if need be the fund could start cashing in those bonds. that could create bigger issues.

    which is the other issue the government keeps borrowing against the SS fund.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    which is the other issue the government keeps borrowing against the SS fund.
    Would you rather the government not borrow against the fund and let the money sit there and fall victim to inflation? How much do you think the Trust Fund would be worth then?

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by RDS View Post
    Compare that with food stamps.
    Both are systems I pay for and could some day draw benefits from. A delay in benefits doesn't change the fact that I paid for them.
    He touched her over her bra and underpants, she says, and guided her hand to touch him over his underwear
    Quote Originally Posted by Lutherf View Post
    We’ll say what? Something like “nothing happened” ... Yeah, we might say something like that.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by fmw View Post
    I remember when people were saying that Social Security would be bankrupt by 1975. The problem is that social security taxes are sent to the general treasury fund like all other taxes and Social Security payments are made from the general fund like all other payments. There isn't anything to go bankrupt other than the government itself and I suspect that it will take about 20 years for that to happen.
    To refresh your memory, Social Security reached insolvency in 1983 - so the people who warned you in 1975 were right. In 1983, the system borrowed hundreds of millions of dollars in order to pay full benefits, and taxes were raised.

    You have some fact problems here. Social Security revenue is used to pay benefits, not sent to the 'general fund'. Excess SS cash (which there hasn't been since 2009) is invested in government securities JUST LIKE private pensions. In 1960, the Supreme Court ruled that SS benefits are not contractual obligations of the government. Social Security can crash, and the government has no obligation to pay any benefits.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyfox696 View Post
    Would you rather the government not borrow against the fund and let the money sit there and fall victim to inflation? How much do you think the Trust Fund would be worth then?
    as long as the interest earned on the fund outpaces inflation the fund is fine.
    the government borrowing from the fund means it has to be paid back. it also means there is less in the fund to earn interest on.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    SSDI etc ... there are people that are pulling out of the ss fund that never contributed.
    it isn't dead it still continues on.

    not to mention that the government owes the SS fund trillions of dollars. I know where the bonds are held as well. they are useless to anyone but the SS fund but if need be the fund could start cashing in those bonds. that could create bigger issues.

    which is the other issue the government keeps borrowing against the SS fund.
    SSDI pulls from the SS-Disability system. It is a minor system compared to the OAS system. OAS could subsidize the DI's shortfall for roughly 20 years, and only lose 1 year of solvency for retirees.

    Everyone knows that the government owes SS money. The problem is that 2.8 trillion sounds like a lot until it is compared to the outflow of the system. It is basically economic parsley.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post

    which is the other issue the government keeps borrowing against the SS fund.

    The government hasn't borrowed a penny from Social Security since 2009, when the system stopped generating excess cash.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    as long as the interest earned on the fund outpaces inflation the fund is fine.
    the government borrowing from the fund means it has to be paid back. it also means there is less in the fund to earn interest on.
    There is no fund.

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