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Thread: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    You will have to show me what Reagan and Greenspan said before I can tell you whether it was a lie. A lot of people seem to think that increasing payroll taxes pre-paid their benefits. Based on the data today, those people are foolishly mistaken. I cannot tell you that Reagan and Greenspan lied because I never heard either of them make such a promise.

    The Boomer who say that the Social Security system was projected to be solvent until they were gone. This is what I will say. So it was your understanding that you could screwover your children, and now you are disappointed that it fell on you?
    Here is this guy's POV. What are your thoughts? Ronald Reagan and The Great Social Security Heist : FedSmith.com

    The accounts need to be continuously updated. Things change over time like demographics, the economy, etc....nothing is static. The only way we will screw our children is by abandoning a system set up to migrate some of the risk away from individuals, and giving them one that gives them all the risks. It's a horrible thing to do. So many risk have been migrated away from institutions already and placed on individuals. People have got to be crazy to think they can handle all things the market brings on their own. It's a line perpetuated by the very institutions that realized instead of adding an extra layer of protection, they could simply migrate the risks on to us and some can even make money off us instead.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    Rates might get raised, but you have to ask why will future voters increase taxes when we wont.
    I wasn't aware such a thing was up to a pubic vote.

    Link please?

    Congress passes laws all the time that the public doesn't get to vote on.

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    It is a difficult sell to someone like me with kids. You are telling me that we are going to throw more money at a system that is completely broken.
    We do that all the time.

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    Today workers even if they get benefits in the future will lose money on the system.
    That's normal.

    It happens all the time where people with more money pay mor in taxes than the benofits they get in society, and poor people pay nothing, and get money redistributed to them

    I guess we should stop all social subsidies.

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    So you are suggesting that we increase the price of something that loses money.
    For the elderly, yes.

    Take the money away from subsidies we give able bodied people who do not work.

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    It is a question that I posed to SSA. If you look at the moneys-worth studies, it tells you that low-wage workers get a better deal from Social Security. So I asked SSA whether the life expectancy used in the study tracked to past wages. They said that it didn't, but shorter life expectancies tend to have higher disability utilization. The email said that the increase is about 2 years and it wouldn't materially affect the outcome of the results. Understand, I am not a Congressman and the email may have been a way to get rid of my question. I really don't know.
    I agree.

    Two years isn't much. I was thinking it would be more.

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    I wrote the article. The process is simple. If you divert resources from SS to a private account, the system will have to take more cushion from the Trust Fund. The Trust Fund will be liquidated sooner, and benefits will be cut sooner. What data source do you need?
    This may be true. My understanding of such systems proposed is that those opting out could take their share of the SS and put in in the private account. Not the employer share.

    The law can be changed, and the feds can bail out SS just like anything else.

    Should the elderly get bailed out over banks?

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by rabbitcaebannog View Post
    It's ironic you even mention Blahous' name in the privatization discussion. After all, he was Bush's point man when he brought forth the subject to privatizing the system. He is an ideologue who works for the Hoover Institute. Many of these same privatized schemes came from these US conservative/libertarian think tanks that changed the social security programs in Latin America. Such a surprise you know little about this since the Cato Institute and Heritage Foundation are still pushing private accounts. The people who fund them have a vested interest in private accounts. It's not just poster such as CPwill that believe in them. But, your point is correct that the American people for the most part aren't buying into them. I suppose it could be re-packaged into another name. Time will tell.
    That is ironic, and very surprising considering the most material that I have read from him is very sensible. The Bush Plan was very unsensible, and I have to admit that I haven't spent time researching the source of the bad ideas.

    The Heritage Foundation does not support private accounts. It recommends forced savings accounts to supplement Social Security, which it would turn into a welfare program.

    Private accounts are simply unaffordable.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by rabbitcaebannog View Post
    Here is this guy's POV. What are your thoughts? Ronald Reagan and The Great Social Security Heist : FedSmith.com

    The accounts need to be continuously updated. Things change over time like demographics, the economy, etc....nothing is static. The only way we will screw our children is by abandoning a system set up to migrate some of the risk away from individuals, and giving them one that gives them all the risks. It's a horrible thing to do. So many risk have been migrated away from institutions already and placed on individuals. People have got to be crazy to think they can handle all things the market brings on their own. It's a line perpetuated by the very institutions that realized instead of adding an extra layer of protection, they could simply migrate the risks on to us and some can even make money off us instead.
    The Social Security debate draws in all kinds of people Dr. Smith is not someone on whom I rely for quotes. He manages to get published in a number of venues though.

    The problem in Social Security is the systemic underfunding of the system. We paid retirees of the 1960s $8 of benefits for every $1 of contribution. We paid those benefits by paying retirees of 1985 about $3 of benefits to every $1 of contribution. You can understand why the system was insolvent in 1983. The Trustees have told you that the system isn't working. The promises in the system exceed what the system expects to generate in revenue by 23 trillion dollars. That number is roughly 50% higher than it was five years ago. You can ignore the number but it will come at a stiff price for retirees who are around when the working generation gives up on it.

    The number by itself tells you that something is horribly wrong.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord of Planar View Post
    I wasn't aware such a thing was up to a pubic vote.

    Link please?


    We do that all the time.


    That's normal.

    It happens all the time where people with more money pay mor in taxes than the benofits they get in society, and poor people pay nothing, and get money redistributed to them

    I guess we should stop all social subsidies.


    For the elderly, yes.

    Take the money away from subsidies we give able bodied people who do not work.


    I agree.

    Two years isn't much. I was thinking it would be more.


    This may be true. My understanding of such systems proposed is that those opting out could take their share of the SS and put in in the private account. Not the employer share.

    The law can be changed, and the feds can bail out SS just like anything else.

    Should the elderly get bailed out over banks?
    The public votes for Congress every two years. In the future, the discussion of Social Security will hinge around the people voted into Congress. My guess is that people will take the issue more seriously as the costs of it come home.

    Social Security is not a social program. It is a contributory benefits system. The reason that the system hasn't had a major reform is because people have contributed to the system, and believe that they are owed money by the system. This isn't a system which protects people from poverty. Once it is welfare as you describe, the system is toast. Social Security does not pay a penny of benefit based on need. It is a formula that weights past contributions.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord of Planar View Post

    Two years isn't much. I was thinking it would be more.


    This may be true. My understanding of such systems proposed is that those opting out could take their share of the SS and put in in the private account. Not the employer share.

    The law can be changed, and the feds can bail out SS just like anything else.

    Should the elderly get bailed out over banks?
    I figured that it would be higher was well.

    There is no money in Social Security to take out. The system has 26 trillion in promises for which the only cash that exists is in the Trust Fund. If you let anyone opt-out, everyone would. The Trust Fund would cover about 3 1/2 years of benefits. If people were allowed to reduce their SS payments to 1/2 of what it is today, the system is broke I 8 years rather than 16.

    I am not a fan of the bank bail-outs. It is very unwise policy that none of these idiots went to jail.

    Retirees will have a very difficult sell in the future for a bail-out. They voted for all of these goodies from government like Social Security, and then they voted for people who didn't pay for the goodies. Today, our revenue does not even cover the entitlement programs plus interest. The rest of the government is put on the credit card. I will not be surprised if future voters say that we will pay off the debt but will not bail-out those who were responsible for it.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    The public votes for Congress every two years. In the future, the discussion of Social Security will hinge around the people voted into Congress. My guess is that people will take the issue more seriously as the costs of it come home.

    Social Security is not a social program. It is a contributory benefits system. The reason that the system hasn't had a major reform is because people have contributed to the system, and believe that they are owed money by the system. This isn't a system which protects people from poverty. Once it is welfare as you describe, the system is toast. Social Security does not pay a penny of benefit based on need. It is a formula that weights past contributions.
    I'm not sure numbers like your 8:1 are correct, but I'm not going to bother with those details. I agree with what you are saying in general. I suspect it will become among the social programs and use future tax dollars.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord of Planar View Post
    I'm not sure numbers like your 8:1 are correct, but I'm not going to bother with those details. I agree with what you are saying in general. I suspect it will become among the social programs and use future tax dollars.
    The numbers aren't mine. They come from Urban Institute, and they aren't terribly different from the numbers produced by SSA.

    "I suspect it will become among the social programs and use future tax dollars."

    That is the 23 trillion dollar question. I think that we will postpone the problem until it isn't an option, but you never know.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Born Free View Post
    Thank you for not answering the question. Now you say the present system did not get rid of deflation, yet before you were bitching about inflation. I give up.
    my answer should have been obvious I thought.

    I said:
    a balanced economic system.

    the present system did not get rid of deflation.

    it did help to maintain liquidity but in the worst possibly way for "the people" meanwhile the banking cartels make huge profits in either direction.

    one is as bad as the other.

    one has no liquidity the other severely reduces the value of present past and future earnings and things.

    The point is, this crap is sold to the public as reducing the peaks and dips and that is completely BS, the proof is that we are in the midst of a depression as I type, dont think so? look around at all the stores closed up and the doubling of prices over the last 10 years alone. Ok nuff on that.

    So the only thing that this system has brought us to our benefit is that is does maintain liquidity but at the extreme cost of inflation and the devaluation of our labor and property.






    Meanwhile it put the control of our money in the hands of foreign agents when we could print and manage it ourselves, which is rico extortion since the debt burden falls upon us in the end anyway.




    See the above^^^^

    anything associated with the old money banking cartel is broke and getting broker.

    Basicaly the monetary system we have is designed to extract all the wealth from any nation who engages in it and redistribute it to the top of the pyramid.

    I hope that helps better explain and answer your question.





    this is how slaves are created in the modern world. they are called bond slaves. the creators of the system own you!

    Last edited by KokomoJojo; 07-20-14 at 11:18 PM.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    By the same logic then, private pensions do not exist because they lent money to the government, which the US government spent.
    Wrong. The Private Pensions purchased US Treasury Bonds which they can now resell. They have an actual asset.

    If the "Trust Fund" had purchased US Treasuries which they could sell on the open market, then they would have actual assets, and we would be sitting a good bit prettier. Not as pretty as if they had purchased non-US-Federal-Debt, mind you, but better than we are now.

    The analogy itself is more flawed when it adds "promising to pay it back next month but never doing so" If the government wasn't repaying its debts, SS would have cut its payable benefit levels
    Obviously that is a reference to the fact that we continued to drain the extra FICA monies for non-SS purposes.

    But the government has actually repaid every scheduled penny plus scheduled interest thus far. The people who complain about the government repaying the money borrowed from SS aren't much different than those who run-up their credit card and want to blame the bank for lending them the money.
    my CC balance is zero, and I've been pretty consistently derisive of the idea of predatory lending. So yes, those folks are, in fact, different.

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