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Thread: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

  1. #141
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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyfox696 View Post
    With the promise they would pay them back with interest. And we always do. And if we hadn't spent the money, it would simply sit in a coffee can falling victim to inflation.

    I don't know why you are having such a hard time understanding this.
    do you not understand this adds to the national debt?
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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by mtm1963 View Post
    do you not understand this adds to the national debt?
    Do you not understand that it has no real harmful effect on the debt?

    I'll use an example. Let's say you make $100 every week. You put half of the money into a grocery fund and the other half into a car fund. You give birth to a child and suddenly your grocery bill goes up. Now your grocery bill is $75 a month, but you still want to contribute $50 to your car fund. So you write yourself an IOU to pay back the $25 you still owe to the car fund.

    This adds to the debt you have. Is this debt you owe to yourself something which worries you? Of course not. So your "national debt" argument is a waste of our time.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyfox696 View Post
    Do you not understand that it has no real harmful effect on the debt?

    I'll use an example. Let's say you make $100 every week. You put half of the money into a grocery fund and the other half into a car fund. You give birth to a child and suddenly your grocery bill goes up. Now your grocery bill is $75 a month, but you still want to contribute $50 to your car fund. So you write yourself an IOU to pay back the $25 you still owe to the car fund.

    This adds to the debt you have. Is this debt you owe to yourself something which worries you? Of course not. So your "national debt" argument is a waste of our time.
    every year the government pays interest on that debt to the tune of 100's of billions of dollars.

    an individual can NOT borrow money like the US government can. get real. false analogy!!
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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by mtm1963 View Post
    every year the government pays interest on that debt to the tune of 100's of billions of dollars.


    But they don't pay the same interest on all the money, nor are they paid the same way. Your entire premise is overly simple to the point of being false.

    an individual can NOT borrow money like the US government can. get real. false analogy!!
    It's not a false analogy. It's an overly simple one, because the fact of the matter is you don't seem to understand hardly anything about Social Security. I tried to give you a simple example of how it works. I'm sorry if you still don't understand.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyfox696 View Post


    But they don't pay the same interest on all the money, nor are they paid the same way. Your entire premise is overly simple to the point of being false.

    It's not a false analogy. It's an overly simple one, because the fact of the matter is you don't seem to understand hardly anything about Social Security. I tried to give you a simple example of how it works. I'm sorry if you still don't understand.
    i understand congress spent the SS surpluses. i understand congress has NOT paid back those borrowed SS monies. i understand this contributes to the national debt.

    these points seem to go over your understanding.
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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    There is a point where the discussion leaves the tracks. It is what Moynihan said. You can have your own opinions but not your own facts. Social Security taxes do not cover benefits. The revenue that you are quoting includes interest on the Trust Fund that you say doesn't exist. It started running deficits in 2010, generally speaking I say that it has not produced any revenue to borrow since 2009. That means it produced some excess cash to borrow in 2009, but not in 2010.

    "When SS no longer has a surplus, it will contribute to deficits and debt even more than we already have."

    This is factually not true. When SS no longer has a Trust Fund (surplus if you will), benefits are automatically cut. This is why people have a discussion about the size of the benefit cuts in 2033.
    If it included the interest, that doesn't matter. It is still in surplus as of 2013. Past predictions that I recall has it needed to cash in some of those bonds starting in 2017.

    Did you look at the link I provided?

    Where is your official site to show I'm wrong?

    If I use OMB table 2-1 compared to table 4-1, 2013 shows even more of a surplus.

    Link please.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by mtm1963 View Post
    table 1 page two in the PDF file.

    SS surpluses went toward reducing the yearly budget deficits.

    http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/fil...-corrected.pdf
    Social Security has been off-budget since 1990. The deficit is the on-budget column, which is what is the reported deficit. So your chart shows that Social Security isn't counted as part of the deficit. It also includes a column for debt held by the public. So what is the significance of the report again?

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    You lost me at mandatory pay increase.
    All the pay increase does is place the employers share of the FICA where the employee sees then pays for it. The only complication is the extra federal and state income taxes it would make a person liable for without tweaking the system there as well.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeTheEconomist View Post
    Here is the CRFB's disclosure....
    Good gravy. Are you really convinced the only person on the planet with the most absolutely precise figures?

    It's not a policy planning tool. It's designed to give a general concept of what's involved in making SS solvent. Relatively simple tweaks like chained CPI, for example, will help but won't fix everything.

    You also missed the bit about how it's updated annually.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by mtm1963 View Post
    i understand congress spent the SS surpluses. i understand congress has NOT paid back those borrowed SS monies.
    The Trust Fund is, by law, held as Treasury securities. Those securities have been paid back, with interest. The interest rate is around 2%, which means it's keeping pace with inflation.

    If the Trust Fund didn't keep pace with inflation, the value of the fund would deteriorate. Somehow, that doesn't seem like a preferable option.

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