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Thread: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    You can't get under my skin. While people like you giggle it's people like my kids that will have to clean up the failure of your generations mess in 20 years. Here's hoping it's sooner, just so you can "enjoy" the repercussions of your laughs.
    Don't worry, now that marijuana is becoming legal, perhaps your children will become stoners. Look on the bright side, once weed is legal in Texas, perhaps you and your children can open a dispensary there in San Antonio. God knows you have enough smokers there to prosper.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by mtm1963 View Post
    the trust fund exist on paper but there is NO money in it.

    benefits are paid from the SS tax on everyone's pay check.
    Technically those are TBills which have to be repayed by the general govt (via income taxes or borrowing (more tbills)) Easy solution would be to simply raise the tax rate so that FICA tax revenue meets current benefit costs. But assuming you have to keep raising it, itll just collapse some day.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Remove the upper cap.

    Freeze benefit pay outs save for inflation, and disallow benefit pay outs to be changed in the future in any manner but across the board (IE no increasing pay out for those on the lower end but not on the higher)

    Increase the age anyone under 55 today can start recieving social security by 5 years (So 67 you can start taking it out early, 71 you can go in full).

    SS Tax revenue can ONLY be spent on SS Benefits, and MUST be spent on SS Benefits until the remaining revenue or benefits is reduced to $0, whatever comes first. If the revenuefrom the SS Tax in a given year exceeds the total cost of SS Benefits in said year, the difference is placed within a trust. Said trust can ONLY be tapped into as a means of covering a short fall in a year where the SS Tax revenue is less than the SS Benefit payouts. General expenses can be used to pay SS Benefits only in a situation where all of the SS Tax reveue has been used AND the trust is empty, but additional payout is still needed.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    Technically those are TBills which have to be repayed by the general govt (via income taxes or borrowing (more tbills)) Easy solution would be to simply raise the tax rate so that FICA tax revenue meets current benefit costs. But assuming you have to keep raising it, itll just collapse some day.
    every time the FICA tax has a surplus congress spends it on something else other then SS. what do you do about that?
    Go Vols

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Carleen View Post
    I'm in my seventies, so the chances I'll be around after 2030 doubtful.
    Well, you're one person that won't be collecting more than was put in. Somehow, I just think that's not the norm.
    "We have met the enemy and they are ours..." -- Oliver Hazard Perry
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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthony60 View Post
    Well, you're one person that won't be collecting more than was put in. Somehow, I just think that's not the norm.
    It's not the norm, with increasing regularity.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    Part of life expectancy statistics is infant mortality. The rest, as the SSA points out, is life expectancy when you attain adulthood.

    For men in 1940, if they made it to 21 their life expectancy was 53.9 years; by 1990, it was 72.3 years. For women, it's jumped from 60.6 years to 83.6 years.

    For men in 1940, if they made it to 65 their life expectancy was another 12.7 years, and by 1990 it was 15.3 years. For women, 14.7 to 19.6. In addition, the percentage of the US population that is over 65 has grown, from 6.8% in 1940 to 12.4% in 2000. (Social Security History)

    In 1900, people started work at about what age?



    The average age of retirement has also apparently dropped. In 1940, it was 68; by 1995 it was 64.




    And what about changes in the number of years worked, compared to the number of years in retirement? According to the BLS, it looks like this....




    Heritage has a pretty good article on this: Time to Raise Social Security


    People are working less, retiring earlier, and living longer, at a time when there are fewer workers who have to support more retirees. I will gladly admit that simply stating "life expectancy" is a bit oversimplified, but the essence is correct. To suggest that the changes in life expectancy haven't contributed to the issues facing SS is slightly ridiculous.
    The cost has risen how much? 10 fold. The average worker now contributes more than he collects even with longer life expectancies. So raising life expectancy by definition cannot be contributing to the problem. People are only losing less on average.

    "To suggest that the changes in life expectancy haven't contributed to the issues facing SS is slightly ridiculous. "

    HL Mencken's quote was.... It is a great line for people who do not understand how the formulas work. They see more benefits paid, and assume that it must be a problem. The question isn't whether we are living longer but at what age. In any case of increasing life expectancy, it is nothing compared to the rise in costs. This noise is the sell side of people who are in retirement, and do not want to admit that there is a problem which they caused by poor voting. Poor voting is 99% of the problem. Life expectancy is round-off.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Zyphlin View Post
    Remove the upper cap.

    Freeze benefit pay outs save for inflation, and disallow benefit pay outs to be changed in the future in any manner but across the board (IE no increasing pay out for those on the lower end but not on the higher)

    Increase the age anyone under 55 today can start recieving social security by 5 years (So 67 you can start taking it out early, 71 you can go in full).

    SS Tax revenue can ONLY be spent on SS Benefits, and MUST be spent on SS Benefits until the remaining revenue or benefits is reduced to $0, whatever comes first. If the revenuefrom the SS Tax in a given year exceeds the total cost of SS Benefits in said year, the difference is placed within a trust. Said trust can ONLY be tapped into as a means of covering a short fall in a year where the SS Tax revenue is less than the SS Benefit payouts. General expenses can be used to pay SS Benefits only in a situation where all of the SS Tax reveue has been used AND the trust is empty, but additional payout is still needed.
    Those over 55 need to share part of the burden of reform as well. Immediately implement COLA freezes and start phasing in the higher retirement age now. They should also have to cough up more for their subsidized Medicare premiums.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Zyphlin View Post
    Remove the upper cap. Freeze benefit pay outs save for inflation... etc
    Here ya go. Put in your choices, and see if it makes SS solvent for the next 75 years. Based on what you're saying, I don't think your plan does enough, but there are plenty of additional options.

    The Reformer: An Interactive Tool to Fix Social Security


    SS Tax revenue can ONLY be spent on SS Benefits...
    That only works when the annual revenues and outlays balance each other out, or produce a surplus.


    If the revenuefrom the SS Tax in a given year exceeds the total cost of SS Benefits in said year, the difference is placed within a trust. Said trust can ONLY be tapped into as a means of covering a short fall in a year where the SS Tax revenue is less than the SS Benefit payouts.
    That's pretty much how it works now. The only difference is that the funds held in trust are converted into Treasury securities.


    General expenses can be used to pay SS Benefits only in a situation where all of the SS Tax reveue has been used AND the trust is empty, but additional payout is still needed.
    Yes, that's where we are headed, some time around 2033, depending on many variables.

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    Re: Social Security To Go Bust By 2030: CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by mtm1963 View Post
    every time the FICA tax has a surplus congress spends it on something else other then SS. what do you do about that?
    Yep, I can't believe people think there is a fund with the SS money in it.

    It sill be far sooner than 2030 that congress will have to start borrowing money to pay SS benefits. The last estimate I remember was 2017, and that was before the few years they reduced SS insurance to 4.2%.

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