I am looking at the point they made with 80% of whos who. Are going with the Republicans taking the Senate. Not so much the breakdown with the poll at this point of moment. Which now they are also looking at the Demos may even lose more house Seats than was thought.
80% of who's who, I think you better look again. Only one out of six national re-known prognostacators predicts a Republican take over of the senate. I would say the odds are closer to 20% than 80%.
1 Professional Prognosticators Senate predictions as of 11 April Current 55 Democratic held seats 45 Republican held seats.
Charlie Cook 47 Democratic 46 Republican: Tossups (5 Democratic held seats) Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Michigan, and North Carolina. (2 Reublican held seats) Georgia and Kentucky (Democrat to Republican West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota) (No Republican to Democratic seats)
For the Republicans to take control of the senate according to Cook, they must retain Georgia and Kentucky and win 3 of the Democratic held seats he lists as tossups.
EP 51 Republican 49 Democratic: No toss ups (Democrat to Republican West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Michigan) (No Republican to Democratic seats)
EP bluntly says at this time the Republicans will take control of the senate.
Nate Silver 538, 49 Republican 48 Democratic: Tossups (3 Democratic held seats Alaska, Louisiana, and North Carolina. (Democrat to Republican Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia). (No Republican to Democratic seats.)
Nate says the Republican’s must win 2 of the three seats he lists as tossups. Nate and Cook are basically saying the same thing.
RCP 50 Republican 50 Democrat (Democrat to Republican, Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia) (Republican to Democrat, Kentucky)
RCP no toss up predicts a tie in the senate. With VP Biden providing the tie breaking vote, the senate remains Democratic.
Rothenberg 50 Democrat 49 Republican: Tossup (1 Democratic held seat) Louisiana (Democrat to Republican, West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas) (No Republican to Democrat seats)
For Stuart Rothenberg the Democrats are a lock to retain control of the senate. Even if Louisiana goes Republican, it would result in a 50-50 tie with Vice President Biden casting the deciding votes thus enabling the Democrats to retain their control.
Sabato 48 Democrat 49 Republican: 3 Tossups (3 Democratic Held seats) Alaska, North Carolina, Louisiana (Democratic to Republican, West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas) (No Republican to Democratic seats)
It comes down for the Republicans to win 2 of the 3 tossup seats if they are to gain control of the senate per Larry Sabato.
House of Representatives: Currently 234 Republican 201 Democrat. 218 seats needed for a majority.
Cook: Republicans 230, Democrat 188 Tossups 4 Republican held seats, 13 Democratic held seats
EP: Republicans 234, Democrat 201 no Tossups
Silver: No House predictions as of yet.
RCP: Republicans 232, Democrat 187 Tossups 3 Republican held seats, 13 Democratic held seats
Rothenberg: Republicans 227, Democrat 192 Tossups 7 Republican held seats, 9 Democratic held seats
Sabato: Republican 230, Democrat 195 10 Tossups 4 Republican held seats, 6 Democratic held seats.
If you look at these numbers, the Republicans will probably gain 4-8 seats.