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Thread: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Control

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    FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Control

    Well well. This after he also pointed out that it was entitlement spending that was driving our deficit. I wonder how long ole Nate has left as a left wing darling?

    We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratingsdown to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.

    As always, we encourage you to read this analysis with some caution. Republicans have great opportunities in a number of states, but only in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas do we rate the races as clearly leaning their way. Republicans will also have to win at least two toss-up races, perhaps in Alaska, North Carolina or Michigan, or to convert states such as New Hampshire into that category. And they’ll have to avoid taking losses of their own in Georgia and Kentucky, where the fundamentals favor them but recent polls show extremely competitive races....


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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Well that sucks for Obama. The predictions can still change though.
    ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    I have been saying for a while now that the GOP takeover of the Senate is a definite probability and I would bet it happens. Given that the Obama administration is wasting year after year after year, this is probably a good thing since it will result in
    a - the republicans going full faux right wing libertarian and passing all sorts of extremist legislation which
    b- Obama vetoes painting himself as the last line of defense against right wing extremism, which then
    c - turns America off from its flirtation with the right, and leads to
    d - Democratic wins in 2016 in the White House and retaking Congress

    So its just part of the process and we should not get too worried about it.
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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Well well. This after he also pointed out that it was entitlement spending that was driving our deficit. I wonder how long ole Nate has left as a left wing darling?
    I never considered Nate a "darling" just somebody who know how to juggle the statistics and get the right answers. According to his calculations the Republicans are only slightly favored to win the Senate this year.

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Well well. This after he also pointed out that it was entitlement spending that was driving our deficit. I wonder how long ole Nate has left as a left wing darling?
    Wonder no longer.

    Democrats to Nate Silver: You're Wrong - NationalJournal.com

    Democrats aren't taking Nate Silver's latest Senate prediction lying down.

    In an unusual step, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Monday issued a rebuttal the famed statistician's prediction—made a day earlier—that Republicans were a "slight favorite" to retake the Senate. Silver was wrong in 2012, the political committee's Guy Cecil wrote in a memo, and he'll be wrong again in 2014.

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Well well. This after he also pointed out that it was entitlement spending that was driving our deficit. I wonder how long ole Nate has left as a left wing darling?
    He's not a "darling to the left wing" as much as a reputable source.

    People on the left will disagree with him and that's fine but what he says is considered.

    It seems like mainly a rightwing phenomenon where someone is completely discounted if they don't mesh with your views. The attacks on Nate Silver from the right during the election were just bizarre. It wasn't really attacks on his methods as much as sticking fingers in your ears and screaming because you don't like what it shows.

    In fact...a lot of people on the left have said this Senate cycle is pretty much stacked in Republicans favor based on which seats are up for grabs.
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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Well well. This after he also pointed out that it was entitlement spending that was driving our deficit. I wonder how long ole Nate has left as a left wing darling?
    Probably about as long he's a right-wing darling. As long as they say what you want to hear.

    Go ahead and count your chickens before they hatch, though. Remember when Romney was a "sure thing" to win?


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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Well well. This after he also pointed out that it was entitlement spending that was driving our deficit. I wonder how long ole Nate has left as a left wing darling?
    He's a darling because he's good at math. Some people don't appreciate being lied to, even when they wish the lies were true.

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by rocket88 View Post
    Probably about as long he's a right-wing darling. As long as they say what you want to hear.

    Go ahead and count your chickens before they hatch, though. Remember when Romney was a "sure thing" to win?
    He's a numbers guy.

    This is common sense.

    But this was also true two years ago, and four years ago, and the GOP screwed the pooch there too.

    There is more than enough time for a GOP candidate to make a gaffe and accidentally tell people what he (and it's always a 'he', dontcha know) really thinks.
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    He's a numbers guy.

    This is common sense.

    But this was also true two years ago, and four years ago, and the GOP screwed the pooch there too.

    There is more than enough time for a GOP candidate to make a gaffe and accidentally tell people what he (and it's always a 'he', dontcha know) really thinks.
    Well exactly. What often happens is that someone over there reads these kind of polls and decides "well, this one's in the bag we don't even have to try anymore." Or at least it seems like that


    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    This issue has been plowed more times than Paris Hilton.
    Quote Originally Posted by Oborosen View Post
    Too bad we have to observe human rights.

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