FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Control

[cpwill]

Well well. This after he also pointed out that it was entitlement spending that was driving our deficit. I wonder how long ole Nate has left as a left wing darling?

We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratingsdown to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.

As always, we encourage you to read this analysis with some caution. Republicans have great opportunities in a number of states, but only in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas do we rate the races as clearly leaning their way. Republicans will also have to win at least two toss-up races, perhaps in Alaska, North Carolina or Michigan, or to convert states such as New Hampshire into that category. And they’ll have to avoid taking losses of their own in Georgia and Kentucky, where the fundamentals favor them but recent polls show extremely competitive races....

 

[Robbie Loucks]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Well that sucks for Obama. The predictions can still change though.

 

[haymarket]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

I have been saying for a while now that the GOP takeover of the Senate is a definite probability and I would bet it happens. Given that the Obama administration is wasting year after year after year, this is probably a good thing since it will result in
a - the republicans going full faux right wing libertarian and passing all sorts of extremist legislation which
b- Obama vetoes painting himself as the last line of defense against right wing extremism, which then
c - turns America off from its flirtation with the right, and leads to
d - Democratic wins in 2016 in the White House and retaking Congress

So its just part of the process and we should not get too worried about it.

 

[pbrauer]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Well well. This after he also pointed out that it was entitlement spending that was driving our deficit. I wonder how long ole Nate has left as a left wing darling?

I never considered Nate a "darling" just somebody who know how to juggle the statistics and get the right answers. According to his calculations the Republicans are only slightly favored to win the Senate this year.

 

[Samhain]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Well well. This after he also pointed out that it was entitlement spending that was driving our deficit. I wonder how long ole Nate has left as a left wing darling?

Wonder no longer.

Democrats to Nate Silver: You're Wrong - NationalJournal.com

Democrats aren't taking Nate Silver's latest Senate prediction lying down.

In an unusual step, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Monday issued a rebuttal the famed statistician's prediction—made a day earlier—that Republicans were a "slight favorite" to retake the Senate. Silver was wrong in 2012, the political committee's Guy Cecil wrote in a memo, and he'll be wrong again in 2014.

 

[iliveonramen]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Well well. This after he also pointed out that it was entitlement spending that was driving our deficit. I wonder how long ole Nate has left as a left wing darling?

He's not a "darling to the left wing" as much as a reputable source.

People on the left will disagree with him and that's fine but what he says is considered.

It seems like mainly a rightwing phenomenon where someone is completely discounted if they don't mesh with your views. The attacks on Nate Silver from the right during the election were just bizarre. It wasn't really attacks on his methods as much as sticking fingers in your ears and screaming because you don't like what it shows.

In fact...a lot of people on the left have said this Senate cycle is pretty much stacked in Republicans favor based on which seats are up for grabs.

 

[rocket88]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Well well. This after he also pointed out that it was entitlement spending that was driving our deficit. I wonder how long ole Nate has left as a left wing darling?

Probably about as long he's a right-wing darling. As long as they say what you want to hear.

Go ahead and count your chickens before they hatch, though. Remember when Romney was a "sure thing" to win? :lamo

 

[Mithros]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Well well. This after he also pointed out that it was entitlement spending that was driving our deficit. I wonder how long ole Nate has left as a left wing darling?

He's a darling because he's good at math. Some people don't appreciate being lied to, even when they wish the lies were true.

 

[Threegoofs]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Probably about as long he's a right-wing darling. As long as they say what you want to hear.

Go ahead and count your chickens before they hatch, though. Remember when Romney was a "sure thing" to win? :lamo

He's a numbers guy.

This is common sense.

But this was also true two years ago, and four years ago, and the GOP screwed the pooch there too.

There is more than enough time for a GOP candidate to make a gaffe and accidentally tell people what he (and it's always a 'he', dontcha know) really thinks.

 

[rocket88]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

He's a numbers guy.

This is common sense.

But this was also true two years ago, and four years ago, and the GOP screwed the pooch there too.

There is more than enough time for a GOP candidate to make a gaffe and accidentally tell people what he (and it's always a 'he', dontcha know) really thinks.

Well exactly. What often happens is that someone over there reads these kind of polls and decides "well, this one's in the bag we don't even have to try anymore." Or at least it seems like that

 

[Lutherf]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Everybody is talking about a Franken blowout in MN but I just don't see it that way. It was a close race in '08 and I really think it's going to be close again.

 

[Redress]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Well well. This after he also pointed out that it was entitlement spending that was driving our deficit. I wonder how long ole Nate has left as a left wing darling?

He is not a "darling of the left", he is a " darling" of any one who likes well done mathematical modeling. He was far more unpopular with "the right" for not adjusting poll numbers to say what they wanted, like they where doing. Personally, I like accurate, even when the news is bad.

 

[Fiddytree]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Probably about as long he's a right-wing darling. As long as they say what you want to hear.

I think that's true. Nate was predicting that the ground game for Obama was much better than was being reported throughout the media, and that pleased Democrats and ameliorated liberals. This was all the while that Nate was predicting the GOP takeover of the Senate (which did not come to pass, and he tried his best to explain the problems in his model).

I think the idea that liberals frequently promoted him because he was "good at math" is idiotic at best. People want validation, not necessarily the best analysis.

Nate was promoted to incredibly high status for his profession, and he's much more modest than those who promoted him a short time ago. He knows that in the public eye he's only as good as the next prediction coming true, while those that promoted him put on an extra zeal than that.

 

[Deuce]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Nate Silver:

Liberal "darling" because he did math accurately.
Conservatives hate that ****, though.

In reality, he was just hated by conservatives because he wouldn't give them a fairy tale like "unskewed polls." God, that was so fun to watch. But anyone hated by the right must be a liberal darling.

 

[roughdraft274]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

I think that's true. Nate was predicting that the ground game for Obama was much better than was being reported throughout the media, and that pleased Democrats and ameliorated liberals. This was all the while that Nate was predicting the GOP takeover of the Senate (which did not come to pass, and he tried his best to explain the problems in his model).

I think the idea that liberals frequently promoted him because he was "good at math" is idiotic at best. People want validation, not necessarily the best analysis.

Nate was promoted to incredibly high status for his profession, and he's much more modest than those who promoted him a short time ago. He knows that in the public eye he's only as good as the next prediction coming true, while those that promoted him put on an extra zeal than that.

He was promoted because of his track record. Period. As long as his stats and predictions remain firmly based in reality and he continues his great results, he has my approval, regardless of who he thinks is going to win.

 

[Ockham]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Nate Silver:

Liberal "darling" because he did math accurately.
Conservatives hate that ****, though.

What do conservatives hate math or math done correctly? Is that the new meme.... "Conservatives - war on women, dispersers of mathematics." :roll:

 

[Chocolate]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

why in montana is walsh blue but the graph says we are a red state?

 

[roughdraft274]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Nate Silver:

Liberal "darling" because he did math accurately.
Conservatives hate that ****, though.

In reality, he was just hated by conservatives because he wouldn't give them a fairy tale like "unskewed polls." God, that was so fun to watch. But anyone hated by the right must be a liberal darling.

Exactly. Hit the nail on the head.

Conservatives in mass acted like full fledged retards leading up to the 2012 election. I'm not happy that the news isn't good for Democrats but I'm not going to go masturbate my ego with losers like Dick Morris, Karl Rove and unskewedpolls.com like a little bitch.

 

[Redress]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

I think that's true. Nate was predicting that the ground game for Obama was much better than was being reported throughout the media, and that pleased Democrats and ameliorated liberals. This was all the while that Nate was predicting the GOP takeover of the Senate (which did not come to pass, and he tried his best to explain the problems in his model).

I think the idea that liberals frequently promoted him because he was "good at math" is idiotic at best. People want validation, not necessarily the best analysis.

Nate was promoted to incredibly high status for his profession, and he's much more modest than those who promoted him a short time ago. He knows that in the public eye he's only as good as the next prediction coming true, while those that promoted him put on an extra zeal than that.

While I am sure there was some of that, I think the biggest thing was a proven track record. While I am not happy at this latest projection of his, I can't argue against it based on anything more concrete than I have my doubts this far out. I still have a great deal of respect for his ability and models.

 

[Mithros]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

What do conservatives hate math or math done correctly? Is that the new meme.... "Conservatives - war on women, dispersers of mathematics." :roll:

The right wing is not interested in math or facts. I"m not saying this is true of conservatives; but it is certainly true of the base of the Republican party.

There was a piece on RedState before the 12 election which confidently predicted that Romney would win in a blowout. The article chained a bunch of anecdotal evidence, non-sequiturs, and circular "unskewed polls" logic to arrive at that conclusion. I had been a member of RedState for almost two years at that point. I pointed out the succinctly and politely, that the analysis was flawed because it failed to account for the increased number of Republican leaning voters who self identify as independent. Romney might still win in a close election, but there was no evidence to support an upcoming Romney blowout.

I was promptly banned from Red State with a viscerally hateful post from the moderator Moe Lane; who accused me among other things of attempting to suppress the Republican vote with propaganda. After the election I attempted to get my account reinstated, as I had done nothing remotely inflammatory, and everything I posted was obviously factually accurate. They never responded.

And perusing through RedState, it again seems like Moe Lane is the resident "expert" on predicting elections.

I do mathy things for a living. If I was ever that wrong, about anything... it would not only be humiliating; it would be career ending. But that's not the way it works in the far right. In the far right, the career ending mistake is to be factually correct on an unpopular truth.

 

[leoborn]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

I never considered Nate a "darling" just somebody who know how to juggle the statistics and get the right answers. According to his calculations the Republicans are only slightly favored to win the Senate this year.

:agree: This far out these predictions mean nothing. I predict they will change several more times. :lol:

 

[cpwill]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

He is not a "darling of the left", he is a " darling" of any one who likes well done mathematical modeling. He was far more unpopular with "the right" for not adjusting poll numbers to say what they wanted, like they where doing. Personally, I like accurate, even when the news is bad.

:shrug: his book is actually next on my list. However:

I think the idea that liberals frequently promoted him because he was "good at math" is idiotic at best. People want validation, not necessarily the best analysis.

That is accurate. He was absolutely a "darling" of the left.

 

[cpwill]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Nate Silver:

Liberal "darling" because he did math accurately.
Conservatives hate that ****, though.

In reality, he was just hated by conservatives because he wouldn't give them a fairy tale like "unskewed polls." God, that was so fun to watch. But anyone hated by the right must be a liberal darling.

No. Many conservatives (myself included) thought that his turnout model - which was based on 2008 - would not be matched for a reelection campaign in the middle of perennially high unemployment and 4 years of economic suffering among the same demographics that make up the majority of the Presidents' base. We didn't disagree with Silver on the math, but on his assumption as to the effectiveness of the Democrats ground game. :shrug: he was right, and we were wrong. It happens in forecasting .

 

[cpwill]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Everybody is talking about a Franken blowout in MN but I just don't see it that way. It was a close race in '08 and I really think it's going to be close again.

Well if Republicans don't have a system in place to stop felons from voting this time around, they almost deserve to lose on grounds of incompetence.

 

[Threegoofs]

Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

Well if Republicans don't have a system in place to stop felons from voting this time around, they almost deserve to lose on grounds of incompetence.

Sure. Because felons always make the difference in turning an election :roll