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Thread: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Control

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    I never considered Nate a "darling" just somebody who know how to juggle the statistics and get the right answers. According to his calculations the Republicans are only slightly favored to win the Senate this year.
    : This far out these predictions mean nothing. I predict they will change several more times.

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    He is not a "darling of the left", he is a " darling" of any one who likes well done mathematical modeling. He was far more unpopular with "the right" for not adjusting poll numbers to say what they wanted, like they where doing. Personally, I like accurate, even when the news is bad.
    his book is actually next on my list. However:

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree
    I think the idea that liberals frequently promoted him because he was "good at math" is idiotic at best. People want validation, not necessarily the best analysis.
    That is accurate. He was absolutely a "darling" of the left.

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    Nate Silver:

    Liberal "darling" because he did math accurately.
    Conservatives hate that ****, though.

    In reality, he was just hated by conservatives because he wouldn't give them a fairy tale like "unskewed polls." God, that was so fun to watch. But anyone hated by the right must be a liberal darling.
    No. Many conservatives (myself included) thought that his turnout model - which was based on 2008 - would not be matched for a reelection campaign in the middle of perennially high unemployment and 4 years of economic suffering among the same demographics that make up the majority of the Presidents' base. We didn't disagree with Silver on the math, but on his assumption as to the effectiveness of the Democrats ground game. he was right, and we were wrong. It happens in forecasting .

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by Lutherf View Post
    Everybody is talking about a Franken blowout in MN but I just don't see it that way. It was a close race in '08 and I really think it's going to be close again.
    Well if Republicans don't have a system in place to stop felons from voting this time around, they almost deserve to lose on grounds of incompetence.

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Well if Republicans don't have a system in place to stop felons from voting this time around, they almost deserve to lose on grounds of incompetence.
    Sure. Because felons always make the difference in turning an election :roll
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    While I am sure there was some of that, I think the biggest thing was a proven track record. While I am not happy at this latest projection of his, I can't argue against it based on anything more concrete than I have my doubts this far out. I still have a great deal of respect for his ability and models.
    Perhaps we have a different way of looking at this. My base assumption is people are often selfish, deceitful, manipulating creatures. As such I rarely take at face value that social science results are merely promoted on the basis of sound reasoning and data (including this thread). While some were much more willing to like Nate because of his approach with data (frequently these were people on the periphery or inside the social sciences), I think that was in the minority.

    He has a pretty good track record, but as Democrats are much more willing to point out now, his legislative branch predictions had some issues. I was interested that there was much less play about Silver's Senate race predictions, and his follow-up response to issues with his model, than the Presidential race. Few were willing to go out and tease out his statements that his model relies on a multitude of polling data, and that some of these races had far less substantial polls than desired. What seemed to matter to these people more was that at least the President's race was covered to their liking, and​ it got to turn Republican nay-sayers sour.

    That being said, a substantial portion of people looking at polling data of any sort will often revert to basic cliched responses, because it either validates or contradicts one's hopes, aspirations, and expectations.
    Last edited by Fiddytree; 03-24-14 at 05:18 PM.
    Michael J Petrilli-"Is School Choice Enough?"-A response to the recent timidity of American conservatives toward education reform. https://nationalaffairs.com/publicat...-choice-enough

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by Lutherf View Post
    Everybody is talking about a Franken blowout in MN but I just don't see it that way. It was a close race in '08 and I really think it's going to be close again.
    We'll see who he's up against. Here's the list:

    Declared[edit]
    Jim Abeler, State Representative[13]
    Chris Dahlberg, St. Louis County commissioner[14]
    Mike McFadden, financial executive[15]
    Monti Moreno, bison farmer, former hair salon owner and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1996[16]
    Julianne Ortman, State Senator[17]
    Phillip Parrish, U.S. Navy reservist[18]

    Potential[edit]
    Laura Brod, former State Representative[20]
    Chip Cravaack, former U.S. Representative[21]
    Bill Guidera, finance chair of the Republican Party of Minnesota[22]
    Rich Stanek, Hennepin County Sheriff[20]

    United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    This issue has been plowed more times than Paris Hilton.
    Quote Originally Posted by Oborosen View Post
    Too bad we have to observe human rights.

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Well if Republicans don't have a system in place to stop felons from voting this time around, they almost deserve to lose on grounds of incompetence.
    It'll be hard for them to restrict voting. Both houses of the legislature and the Governor's office are controlled by Democrats.

    And since about half of the felons that voted last time admitted to voting for Norm Coleman....nice try at a talking point, but it's wrong.


    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    This issue has been plowed more times than Paris Hilton.
    Quote Originally Posted by Oborosen View Post
    Too bad we have to observe human rights.

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithros View Post
    The right wing is not interested in math or facts. I"m not saying this is true of conservatives; but it is certainly true of the base of the Republican party.
    The Republicans count votes the same way Democrats do.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithros View Post
    There was a piece on RedState before the 12 election which confidently predicted that Romney would win in a blowout. The article chained a bunch of anecdotal evidence, non-sequiturs, and circular "unskewed polls" logic to arrive at that conclusion. I had been a member of RedState for almost two years at that point. I pointed out the succinctly and politely, that the analysis was flawed because it failed to account for the increased number of Republican leaning voters who self identify as independent. Romney might still win in a close election, but there was no evidence to support an upcoming Romney blowout.
    The same thing happens of at DailyKos. A bad prediction however does not indicate an adversity to math or facts.
    “I think if Thomas Jefferson were looking down, the author of the Bill of Rights, on what’s being proposed here, he’d agree with it. He would agree that the First Amendment cannot be absolute.” - Chuck Schumer (D). Yet, Madison and Mason wrote the Bill of Rights, according to Sheila Jackson Lee, 400 years ago. Yup, it's a fact.


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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by leoborn View Post
    : This far out these predictions mean nothing. I predict they will change several more times.
    Well, I would not say they mean nothing, however I do believe they will change somewhat.

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