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Thread: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Control

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Everybody is talking about a Franken blowout in MN but I just don't see it that way. It was a close race in '08 and I really think it's going to be close again.

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Well well. This after he also pointed out that it was entitlement spending that was driving our deficit. I wonder how long ole Nate has left as a left wing darling?
    He is not a "darling of the left", he is a " darling" of any one who likes well done mathematical modeling. He was far more unpopular with "the right" for not adjusting poll numbers to say what they wanted, like they where doing. Personally, I like accurate, even when the news is bad.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by rocket88 View Post
    Probably about as long he's a right-wing darling. As long as they say what you want to hear.
    I think that's true. Nate was predicting that the ground game for Obama was much better than was being reported throughout the media, and that pleased Democrats and ameliorated liberals. This was all the while that Nate was predicting the GOP takeover of the Senate (which did not come to pass, and he tried his best to explain the problems in his model).

    I think the idea that liberals frequently promoted him because he was "good at math" is idiotic at best. People want validation, not necessarily the best analysis.

    Nate was promoted to incredibly high status for his profession, and he's much more modest than those who promoted him a short time ago. He knows that in the public eye he's only as good as the next prediction coming true, while those that promoted him put on an extra zeal than that.
    Last edited by Fiddytree; 03-24-14 at 03:24 PM.
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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Nate Silver:

    Liberal "darling" because he did math accurately.
    Conservatives hate that ****, though.

    In reality, he was just hated by conservatives because he wouldn't give them a fairy tale like "unskewed polls." God, that was so fun to watch. But anyone hated by the right must be a liberal darling.
    He touched her over her bra and underpants, she says, and guided her hand to touch him over his underwear
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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    I think that's true. Nate was predicting that the ground game for Obama was much better than was being reported throughout the media, and that pleased Democrats and ameliorated liberals. This was all the while that Nate was predicting the GOP takeover of the Senate (which did not come to pass, and he tried his best to explain the problems in his model).

    I think the idea that liberals frequently promoted him because he was "good at math" is idiotic at best. People want validation, not necessarily the best analysis.

    Nate was promoted to incredibly high status for his profession, and he's much more modest than those who promoted him a short time ago. He knows that in the public eye he's only as good as the next prediction coming true, while those that promoted him put on an extra zeal than that.
    He was promoted because of his track record. Period. As long as his stats and predictions remain firmly based in reality and he continues his great results, he has my approval, regardless of who he thinks is going to win.
    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    uh that is so small as to be stupid. Do you want registration? given less than 3% of criminals get their guns from private sales, its pretty much a waste of resources
    **Thirty Minutes Later**
    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    you are confused. I never denied that many criminals get guns in private sales.

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    Nate Silver:

    Liberal "darling" because he did math accurately.
    Conservatives hate that ****, though.
    What do conservatives hate math or math done correctly? Is that the new meme.... "Conservatives - war on women, dispersers of mathematics."
    “I think if Thomas Jefferson were looking down, the author of the Bill of Rights, on what’s being proposed here, he’d agree with it. He would agree that the First Amendment cannot be absolute.” - Chuck Schumer (D). Yet, Madison and Mason wrote the Bill of Rights, according to Sheila Jackson Lee, 400 years ago. Yup, it's a fact.


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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    why in montana is walsh blue but the graph says we are a red state?

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    Nate Silver:

    Liberal "darling" because he did math accurately.
    Conservatives hate that ****, though.

    In reality, he was just hated by conservatives because he wouldn't give them a fairy tale like "unskewed polls." God, that was so fun to watch. But anyone hated by the right must be a liberal darling.
    Exactly. Hit the nail on the head.

    Conservatives in mass acted like full fledged retards leading up to the 2012 election. I'm not happy that the news isn't good for Democrats but I'm not going to go masturbate my ego with losers like Dick Morris, Karl Rove and unskewedpolls.com like a little bitch.
    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    uh that is so small as to be stupid. Do you want registration? given less than 3% of criminals get their guns from private sales, its pretty much a waste of resources
    **Thirty Minutes Later**
    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    you are confused. I never denied that many criminals get guns in private sales.

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    I think that's true. Nate was predicting that the ground game for Obama was much better than was being reported throughout the media, and that pleased Democrats and ameliorated liberals. This was all the while that Nate was predicting the GOP takeover of the Senate (which did not come to pass, and he tried his best to explain the problems in his model).

    I think the idea that liberals frequently promoted him because he was "good at math" is idiotic at best. People want validation, not necessarily the best analysis.

    Nate was promoted to incredibly high status for his profession, and he's much more modest than those who promoted him a short time ago. He knows that in the public eye he's only as good as the next prediction coming true, while those that promoted him put on an extra zeal than that.
    While I am sure there was some of that, I think the biggest thing was a proven track record. While I am not happy at this latest projection of his, I can't argue against it based on anything more concrete than I have my doubts this far out. I still have a great deal of respect for his ability and models.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Contro

    Quote Originally Posted by Ockham View Post
    What do conservatives hate math or math done correctly? Is that the new meme.... "Conservatives - war on women, dispersers of mathematics."
    The right wing is not interested in math or facts. I"m not saying this is true of conservatives; but it is certainly true of the base of the Republican party.

    There was a piece on RedState before the 12 election which confidently predicted that Romney would win in a blowout. The article chained a bunch of anecdotal evidence, non-sequiturs, and circular "unskewed polls" logic to arrive at that conclusion. I had been a member of RedState for almost two years at that point. I pointed out the succinctly and politely, that the analysis was flawed because it failed to account for the increased number of Republican leaning voters who self identify as independent. Romney might still win in a close election, but there was no evidence to support an upcoming Romney blowout.

    I was promptly banned from Red State with a viscerally hateful post from the moderator Moe Lane; who accused me among other things of attempting to suppress the Republican vote with propaganda. After the election I attempted to get my account reinstated, as I had done nothing remotely inflammatory, and everything I posted was obviously factually accurate. They never responded.

    And perusing through RedState, it again seems like Moe Lane is the resident "expert" on predicting elections.

    I do mathy things for a living. If I was ever that wrong, about anything... it would not only be humiliating; it would be career ending. But that's not the way it works in the far right. In the far right, the career ending mistake is to be factually correct on an unpopular truth.

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