View Poll Results: Can Russia financially hurt the USA?

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  • Yes, Russia has the ability.

    5 26.32%
  • No, it probably won't have an impact.

    8 42.11%
  • It's likely to cause *some* problems.

    4 21.05%
  • Only if China helps.

    2 10.53%
  • Jump up and down.

    1 5.26%
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Thread: Russia warns could 'reduce to zero' economic dependency on US

  1. #11
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    Re: Russia warns could 'reduce to zero' economic dependency on US

    Instead of talking about Russia-US relations, a bigger question may be,

    How many European countries will rethink the benefits of fracking?
    down for you is up

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    Re: Russia warns could 'reduce to zero' economic dependency on US

    Quote Originally Posted by soot View Post
    Back in June of 2013 China and Japan between them dumped about $40 billion in Treasuries.

    By November we were up to about $120 billion in net outflows, the biggest Exodus from U.S. bonds since 1977.

    During that period the DYX feel by ~3%.

    Did you notice?

    I didn't.

    My wife and I bought two new cars, she got a new job, I got a raise, nothing but good economic stuff happened.

    Now, explain to me why Russia dumping $200 million worth of bonds matters?
    There were some who's lot improved during the depression, too. I think the risk is the point. And for what, a country in which half the citizens are pro Russian anyway.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

  3. #13
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    Re: Russia warns could 'reduce to zero' economic dependency on US

    Quote Originally Posted by DaveFagan View Post
    That would be $200 BILLION of US bonds.
    Right, roughly equivalent to the recent sell-off, a little less but still in the same church.

    We're not talking about numbers large enough to have a significant effect the economy.

    It'll have an effect, sure, but it's not a game-changer by any means.

    Keep in mind that "dumping" bonds just means that you sell them to someone else.

    The U.S. would itself pick up a lot of that slack (the FED would force banks to buy them) but you also need to bear in mind that the $ is far and away the largest component of global currency reserves (roughly 65%).

    That means that a LOT of places other than the U.S. have a very vested interest in ensuring that the bottom does not drop out of the $.

    You really think $200 billion in U.S. Securities are going to have THAT hard of a time finding a new home?

    I don't.

    Again, a bunch of Chicken Little nonsense by the media to skeer folks into tuning in.

    Russia is the World's second largest producer of oil. Pricing maybe 6,000,000 barrels per day in Rubles instead of dollars would also have an impact. I wouldn't hold my hand over my ass waiting for another new car if they do that.
    Assumes that everyone is going to get on board with Russia's plan and agree to trade with Russia in RUB.

    Who are Russia's biggest oil buyers?

    Germany, Netherlands, the U.S., China (who already trades with Russia in RUB).

    Well, we're certainly not going to agree to the new plan.

    Germany and the rest of the EU?

    Maybe.

    They need Russia's oil, sure.

    But economically Russia is largely a one trick pony.

    The U.S. and EU CAN get oil elsewhere.

    If the U.S. and EU stop buying Russian oil they'd be pretty hard pressed to sell it to anyone else and wouldn't have the infrastructure to do so even if they wanted to.

    They'd effectively cripple themselves.

    See, just because Russia threatens that it's going to do something (that will necessarily hurt them infinitely more than it'll hurt us if things go south on them) doesn't mean it's a credible threat.

    But, again, they're scare mongering too because they know that most Americans aren't even financially savvy enough to live month-to-month on their minimum wage paycheck successfully, never-mind having the ability to parse threats to global finance.

    Make a threat, make a claim, and next thing you know 500,000 Americans who have no idea WTF is happening are standing on the National Mall like Pavlov's dogs threatening (yapping) to vote their incumbent representatives out of office unless those people fix this mess, stat!!!!
    Last edited by soot; 03-04-14 at 07:13 PM.
    “Now it is not good for the Christian’s health to hustle the Aryan brown,
    For the Christian riles, and the Aryan smiles and he weareth the Christian down;
    And the end of the fight is a tombstone white with the name of the late deceased,
    And the epitaph drear: “A Fool lies here who tried to hustle the East.”

  4. #14
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    Re: Russia warns could 'reduce to zero' economic dependency on US

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    Then why haven't they done so already?
    Because the threat of the nuclear option is more valuable than actually nuking the American economy. They can only actually screw us once. They can threaten to screw us many times, and get many concessions.

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    Re: Russia warns could 'reduce to zero' economic dependency on US

    I still think that with the EU/US economies suffering as they are, we don't need to be adding any additional trouble, just because we don't like what Putin did in the Ukraine.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Russia warns could 'reduce to zero' economic dependency on US

    Quote Originally Posted by soot View Post
    Right, roughly equivalent to the recent sell-off, a little less but still in the same church.

    We're not talking about numbers large enough to have a significant effect the economy.

    It'll have an effect, sure, but it's not a game-changer by any means.

    Keep in mind that "dumping" bonds just means that you sell them to someone else.

    The U.S. would itself pick up a lot of that slack (the FED would force banks to buy them) but you also need to bear in mind that the $ is far and away the largest component of global currency reserves (roughly 65%).

    That means that a LOT of places other than the U.S. have a very vested interest in ensuring that the bottom does not drop out of the $.

    You really think $200 billion in U.S. Securities are going to have THAT hard of a time finding a new home?

    I don't.

    Again, a bunch of Chicken Little nonsense by the media to skeer folks into tuning in.



    Assumes that everyone is going to get on board with Russia's plan and agree to trade with Russia in RUB.

    Who are Russia's biggest oil buyers?

    Germany, Netherlands, the U.S., China (who already trades with Russia in RUB).

    Well, we're certainly not going to agree to the new plan.

    Germany and the rest of the EU?

    Maybe.

    They need Russia's oil, sure.

    But economically Russia is largely a one trick pony.

    The U.S. and EU CAN get oil elsewhere.

    If the U.S. and EU stop buying Russian oil they'd be pretty hard pressed to sell it to anyone else and wouldn't have the infrastructure to do so even if they wanted to.

    They'd effectively cripple themselves.

    See, just because Russia threatens that it's going to do something (that will necessarily hurt them infinitely more than it'll hurt us if things go south on them) doesn't mean it's a credible threat.

    But, again, they're scare mongering too because they know that most Americans aren't even financially savvy enough to live month-to-month on their minimum wage paycheck successfully, never-mind having the ability to parse threats to global finance.

    Make a threat, make a claim, and next thing you know 500,000 Americans who have no idea WTF is happening are standing on the National Mall like Pavlov's dogs threatening (yapping) to vote their incumbent representatives out of office unless those people fix this mess, stat!!!!
    The EU depends on Russia for natural gas.

    Natural gas requires infrastructure, it's not like they can "get oil from somewhere else" like you laughably say. You need things like pipelines and distribution networks. Right now, Europe's only option is Russia.

    Russia has Europe by the balls. That's why I've been saying from day 1 that Obama's economic threats are hollow and were a dumb idea to begin with.

    What a joke this administration is.

  7. #17
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    Re: Russia warns could 'reduce to zero' economic dependency on US

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    I still think that with the EU/US economies suffering as they are, we don't need to be adding any additional trouble, just because we don't like what Putin did in the Ukraine.
    Let's just roll over and let Russia do whatever they want. Can't see the harm in that...

  8. #18
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    Re: Russia warns could 'reduce to zero' economic dependency on US

    Seems to me we've plenty of resources on our own, if we'd just get off our political dairy-aires to exploit them properly. Let's go out and build our oil and natural gas resources as we ought, putting what, some estimated 50,000 people to work in the process, and drive down the price of oil and natural gas - prices Russia NEEDS to be as high as possible to fund their government - and let's bring them to their knees economically (again), while kick-starting our economy, making us independent on foreign oil and put a stop to this nonsense.
    Who chimes "No Absolutes!" chimes absolutely.

    zoom zoom

  9. #19
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    Re: Russia warns could 'reduce to zero' economic dependency on US

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    Let's just roll over and let Russia do whatever they want. Can't see the harm in that...
    Ok, well it appears your not in favour of punishing him economically, so what do you favour, a military response? I just don't think what Putins done is a big deal at all.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Russia warns could 'reduce to zero' economic dependency on US

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Ok, well it appears your not in favour of punishing him economically, so what do you favour, a military response? I just don't think what Putins done is a big deal at all.
    We should have put reinforcements in Kiev yesterday. Negotiate from a position of strength.

    Obama is a wimp and Putin knows it. He's a chicken**** coward, too scared to confront Putin. Obama throws out an ultimatum and Putin throws it back in his face, because he doesn't respect Obama and knows his threats are hollow.

    It's ridiculous.

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