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Thread: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass Sen

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    I didn't quote your entire response - just reading it gave me a headache and a distinct desire to punch a wall it was so obtuse.

    The above part I did quote simply because my original comment that you did quote and respond to said very clearly to anyone with passing knowledge of the English language that I agreed with Rand Paul who said that any extension of unemployment insurance benefits had to be paid for and had to include a job training component.
    Personally in every country, I would have a rule that says.. first 6 to 12 months you get unemployment payment.. after that period you get retraining payments for a period and are put in retraining course.
    PeteEU

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    Unemployment is meant for short term compensation while you try and find another job it isn't a long term lifestyle. if you can't find some kind of work any kind of work in 2 years you have issues.
    A middle class person use to a certain income will not go get a burger flipping job that pays 1/10 of his/her former income. That is what people on the right are telling people to do... just not realistic. Unemployment is meant to be temporary, I agree, but you have to factor in the health of the economy and availability of good paying jobs that people can live off. It is no use in removing unemployment payouts if you have not successfully recuperated the lost jobs and started at least to retrain the unemployed into the areas where there are jobs. Sadly this takes longer than 2 years.
    PeteEU

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by scatt View Post
    They are already out of the labor force in reality.
    Frankly no one but children and handicapped, homemaking parents and the retired should be out of the labour force. The way the US does it, totally distorts the unemployment numbers and reality and has been since the start of this practice. It underestimates the actual unemployment. Just because you have not been able to find a job for 2 years, does not mean you cant work... and that is the key difference... can work, vs want to work.. That is why I always get pissed about US vs European unemployment numbers on TV, because most European numbers have a labour force based on "can work", not on "want to work", which means European unemployment numbers are always relatively higher vs US.
    PeteEU

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    Sure cut them off, and remove them from the labour force for being lazy.... but that does not mean that there are jobs for them to get and that is the problem. All it does, is increase the poverty levels.. and I guess that is the strategy of the GOP these days.
    Taxing the hell out of productive people to keep unproductive people reliant on Government for Votes is the DNC way... and that just keeps people chained in a cycle of poverty.

    The GOP believes YOU will do what it in your best interest when faced with adversity, where as people like yourself believe that without Government people will just die in the streets.
    Climate, changes. It takes a particularly uneducated population to buy into the idea that it's their fault climate is changing and further political solutions can fix it.



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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Ya know, when I left the Navy, I had a high paying job lined up. The day of the interview a Hurricane hit Houston. The company I was going to work for their building was damaged and the company folded. I got stuck, on family land in San Antonio. I went on unemployment, for 3 weeks. I couldn't tolerate those checks. I took a base level position with Best Buy. I actually made LESS on that then I did my unemployment check, but I was earning it. I quit that job after landing a better job, and kept looking for better opportunities.

    It's been almost 9 years since I got out of the Navy, my wife and I started out making at or just above Min wage, today, we're doing much much better. We had nothing, now we have something. We are planning to buy a house this year. We went without lots of nice things, we went pay check to pay check. We worked our asses off. I have rich relatives, I could have leaned on them for money, but I didn't. I could have lived on their land, living off unemployment and all kinds of welfare for years, but I refused to be a leech.

    I have little pity for people that refuse to work hard, sacrifice to get ahead. I have compassion for people in need who strive to improve.

    Life ain't fair, wallowing in self pity or believing you're owed something isn't right.
    Climate, changes. It takes a particularly uneducated population to buy into the idea that it's their fault climate is changing and further political solutions can fix it.



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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    'Following last week's surprising passage of the preliminary approval to extend emergency unemployment claims, i.e. emergency jobless claims, for 3 months, when six republicans sided with democrats and gave approval to the original $6.4 billion legislation, there was an expectation that up to 1.4 million Americans would get their benefits extended once again (despite the so-called recovery in the economy, and the job market, instead of just all time high S&P500). Moments ago such hopes were dashed, when a Senate plan to restore long-term jobless benefits hit a wall Tuesday after Republicans withdrew their support amid complaints over cost and other issues.

    The $18 billion bill, which would restore the benefits through the end of 2014, failed to clear a key test vote. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid needed to attract 60 senators to move the bill forward, but the bill stalled on a 52-48 vote.

    No Republicans voted in favor.
    What happened between then and now, and why did those republicans revert back to the party line?

    Reid lost their support when he amended the bill and failed to come up with a plan to offset the cost within 10 years.

    "It doesn't look good," Maine GOP Sen. Susan Collins said before the vote and after a meeting with Reid.

    Collins and Nevada GOP Sen. Dean Heller unsuccessfully proposed that Reid go back to the three-month extension. "We're back to ground zero," Heller said.

    The senators are expected to return to the negotiating table. The GOP-controlled House has yet to vote on extending the benefits.

    Reid postponed a prior vote Monday night upon realizing he didn't have enough support and said he needed time to talk with members of both parties.
    It almost makes one wonder if Reid isn't trying to sabotage his own legislation. Whatever the answer, it increasingly seems that no law, retroactive or otherwise, will pass before the end of the month, which also means that up to (a record) 1.4 million Americans will fall out of the labor force, in addition to the now traditional 200K-600K people who quietly exit the labor pool every month. Which also means that, as we explained previously, since the impact on the unemployment rate could be as high as 0.8% from just the EUC expiration alone, that the unemployment rate for January could crash to under 6% just as the economy is starting to really backslide, as shown by the recent horrendous data from retailers across the board.'

    Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass Senate | Zero Hedge
    It would be interesting to see if that turned out to be the case, I just want to know how you would plan on separating the drop in unemployment due to these benefits expiring and the drop that is already naturally occurring. In other words unemployment has been going down and will likely to continue to go down, so how will you tell that it dropped specifically because o this?

    Also some people may have seen that their benefits were ending months ago and already started to go out and look for jobs if they weren't already, so we may have already been feeling the impact of this law ending. And remember unemployment is defined by those people who do not currently have work but are looking for it, meaning that people drawing unemployment benefits under this program could technically be counted as employed by the Department of Labor which generates the unemployment statistics if they are actively seeking work. You may not see any impact from these benefits ending in the unemployment numbers because perhaps its not the correct metric.

    So what I'm saying is, I'm curious how "Zero Hedge" or anyone else would measure this claim because I'd be very interested and seeing if they are right or not.

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    'Following last week's surprising passage of the preliminary approval to extend emergency unemployment claims, i.e. emergency jobless claims, for 3 months, when six republicans sided with democrats and gave approval to the original $6.4 billion legislation, there was an expectation that up to 1.4 million Americans would get their benefits extended once again (despite the so-called recovery in the economy, and the job market, instead of just all time high S&P500). Moments ago such hopes were dashed, when a Senate plan to restore long-term jobless benefits hit a wall Tuesday after Republicans withdrew their support amid complaints over cost and other issues.

    The $18 billion bill, which would restore the benefits through the end of 2014, failed to clear a key test vote. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid needed to attract 60 senators to move the bill forward, but the bill stalled on a 52-48 vote.

    No Republicans voted in favor.
    What happened between then and now, and why did those republicans revert back to the party line?

    Reid lost their support when he amended the bill and failed to come up with a plan to offset the cost within 10 years.

    "It doesn't look good," Maine GOP Sen. Susan Collins said before the vote and after a meeting with Reid.

    Collins and Nevada GOP Sen. Dean Heller unsuccessfully proposed that Reid go back to the three-month extension. "We're back to ground zero," Heller said.

    The senators are expected to return to the negotiating table. The GOP-controlled House has yet to vote on extending the benefits.

    Reid postponed a prior vote Monday night upon realizing he didn't have enough support and said he needed time to talk with members of both parties.
    It almost makes one wonder if Reid isn't trying to sabotage his own legislation. Whatever the answer, it increasingly seems that no law, retroactive or otherwise, will pass before the end of the month, which also means that up to (a record) 1.4 million Americans will fall out of the labor force, in addition to the now traditional 200K-600K people who quietly exit the labor pool every month. Which also means that, as we explained previously, since the impact on the unemployment rate could be as high as 0.8% from just the EUC expiration alone, that the unemployment rate for January could crash to under 6% just as the economy is starting to really backslide, as shown by the recent horrendous data from retailers across the board.'

    Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass Senate | Zero Hedge
    I'll bet Reid did that for political points. He wanted to lose Republican support, because that's the kind of weasel he is.
    "He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    The BLS term is "Labor Underutilization.

    Good thing for me I didn't say "always," isn't it? i said "tends to"


    Not necessarily. The U6 and U5 both include the Marginally Attached: Those who want to work, are available to work, and who looked for work in the previous 12 months but not previous 4 weeks. So someone could "drop out" but not be available or no longer want a job and therefore would not be marginally attached. Note too, that most of the marginally attached aren't looking for personal reasons such as care of family, going back to school, illness/injury, etc. The discouraged are are seen in the U4.

    Besides...why do you think someone who is not trying to work should be considered unemployed?
    U3 is a subset of U6 so long tern trends will always have a high correlation. But we aren't talking about long term trends, we are talking about the short term trends and what happens to the U3 and U6 when unemployment ends.

    If you want to talk long term trends then throw the participation rate in as well since that has been the single largest driver in the U3 and U6 long term trends over the last 5 years.
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    They should ask because I guarantee you there are a heck of a lot of premature retirees that were forced into that situation because they could not find work.[
    But how does that affect the labor market? If they're not looking for work, competing for jobs, then on a practical level it makes no difference if they were forced to retire or did it voluntarily.

    The UE rate is not a measure of hardship, it's a measure of the labor market
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    A middle class person use to a certain income will not go get a burger flipping job that pays 1/10 of his/her former income. That is what people on the right are telling people to do... just not realistic. Unemployment is meant to be temporary, I agree, but you have to factor in the health of the economy and availability of good paying jobs that people can live off. It is no use in removing unemployment payouts if you have not successfully recuperated the lost jobs and started at least to retrain the unemployed into the areas where there are jobs. Sadly this takes longer than 2 years.
    That is the biggest load of crap i have ever heard in my lifetime.

    You do what you have to do in order to provide for your family and if that means flipping burgers then by God you flip burgers. until you can find something else.
    Cause guess what sitting on your butt collecting a check for less than minimum wage (by the time you factor taxes) isn't doing you any good.

    If you are on unemployment longer than 6 month you have no shot at getting hired. companies aren't even looking at your resume.
    see the article i posted. it tells you why continuing to expand unemployment is doing more harm than good.

    It only takes longer than 2 years if you aren't trying. you can find a job doing something in 2 years. no it might not be what you want to do but it at least shows you are able to be hired.

    If i see two resume's with the same qualifications but one person has been on unemployment for 5 months and the other guy in that time has been working i am going to look at the guy who has been working.

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