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Thread: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass Sen

  1. #51
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by specklebang View Post
    I've always contended that these unemployment numbers are meaningless and this just supports my theory.

    OTOH, I was listening to the radio on my way around today and they were discussing how millions of people are pressuring the states to legalize online gaming wit only one major player fighting it - Sheldon Adelson, who can't abide the thought of anyone making money except his own selfish-prick billionaire self. And it made me think that if millions are worried about this form of wasting money - how bad can things be really?

    I don't think the employment picture is all that pretty but apparently plenty of people have good enough jobs to even care about online gaming. I suppose only a Nevadan would fully grok this, but you should see what I'm referring to.

    Thanks for the intelligent and logical response to my original question.
    You're welcome. It's also worth pointing out that the majority of the jobs "recovery" over the last 5 years has been early retirees and people who dropped out. We are at record low labor participation rate right while those exiting the workforce are being removed from the denominator in the U3 unemployment calculation.

    Part of this is the beginning of the big baby boom retirement, but some of it is simply people giving up and moving from productive members of society to simple consumers.
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  2. #52
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Where on earth did you come up with that nonsense? I'm honestly curious what source you used, because that is about the strangest, and most off the wall claim I've ever heard.
    It is strange, yes. It is also off the wall. But it is true, nonetheless.

    See: BLS Table A-15 "Alternative Measures of Unemployment" to see what they count in U3 "Official" numbers versus the U6 complete list.

    I'll leave it to you to look up what all those categories mean, it's all there on that site.

    Also, before you attempt the AH HAH! Moment and claim that U6, though higher, is falling fatser than U3, take heed of the Labor Participation rate. The U6 numbers of falling because of people dropping out of the labor force "not in labor force" jumped by 500,000 in December while adding only 74,000 jobs. That 500,000 jump in "not in lbor force" is almost entirely responsible for the 0.3% decline in the U3 number while the U6 number remained the same.
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Another interesting observation I'll throw out there is that the number of working age Americans increases by roughly 140,000 per month. So to simply keep up with the population each month we need 140,000 new jobs.

    So "growth" in the job market can be described as the number of jobs created OVER the bare minimum of 140,000. Anything less than that is a net loss.

    I decided to take the monthly BLS jobs numbers and adjust them all downward by 140,000 just to see what the "growth" has looked like for the last 7 years ("growth" I have defined as jobs created above meeting population growth):

    BeCyG_VCQAAIBkf.jpg

    ... stunning...
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    False. BLS tracks UNEMPLOYMENT by the total number of people registered in unemployment programs who can therefor be tracked as looking for work. If those people stop participating in an unemployment program they drop off the U3 statistic, so they are not counted as unemployed in the official unemployment number. They do show up on U6, though.
    That is, once again, completely inaccurate. The total number of those unemployed is not tracked through unemployment compensation, and those who fail to receive benefits may still be counted as unemployed. Straight from the source:

    Because unemployment insurance records relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country.
    How the Government Measures Unemployment

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    In my opinion Reid did exactly that, he sabotaged his own bill. He had 61 votes for the 3 month extension and if he stayed with it the bill was a fore gone conclusion or a sure thing the unemployment benefits would be extended. But he added a bunch of stuff to it, said he would allow no amendments from Republicans and basically made the new version so offensive to the Republicans that they couldn't except. Not even Collins.

    So the unemployed do not get their benefits, but more important to Senator Reid than peoples lives, he has a campaign issue to use in hopes that his democratic party can retain control of the senate and Reid keep his job as majority leader. He will blame the Republicans for not passing the unemployment benefits when it was Reid himself who was responsible.

    I would expect nothing less out of Senator Reid.
    That is precisely what just happened.

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    It is strange, yes. It is also off the wall. But it is true, nonetheless.

    I'll leave it to you to look up what all those categories mean, it's all there on that site.
    I'm curious how you suggest I read what the categories mean, when you clearly have not when you say nonsensical things such as
    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    You don't. You fall out when you stop getting them. If BLS can't track you through a government unemployment program or tax data then you don't count in the U3 Unemployment statistic.
    Which is completely untrue. BLS doesn't get the info for the Employment Situation from UI records. There's a monthly survey and the national figures are extrapolated from the results. Unemployed is defined as did not work during the survey reference week, wants to work, could have started work during the reference week, and actively looked for work in the 4 weeks ending with the reference week. Those on temporary layoff need not have looked for work.

    That was from memory, by the way. I don't need to look up the definitions.

    I would guess what Zero Hedge is talking about is the very real phenomenon where people dropping out of Unemployment programs are no longer counted as employed. They are "discouraged workers" and only get counted in U6 Unemployment figures.
    Discouraged are included in the U4, and as part of the Marginally Attached in the U5 and U6. Discouraged workers are those who want to work, are available for work, looked for work in the previous 12 months but not the previous 4 weeks and who is not looking because s/he believes there is no work available, they don't have the right skills/education, or believes they would suffer discrimination.

    So if you have 3 out of 10 people unemployed but enrolled in a jobs program then U3 would show 7/10 employed and a 30% unemployment. If those 1 of those people drops out of the unemployment program, even though they never found a job, the U3 number is 7/9 or 23% unemployment. It looks like unemployment is dropping when in fact it isn't.
    No, the UE rate is unemployed divided by the labor force, which is employed plus unemployed. If someone is no longer trying to work, they are no longer part of the labor force (the basic concept of the labor force is those available for work. Someone not trying to get a job is obviously not available to be hired).

    What we will see, more than likely, is a precipitous drop in the U3 unemployment with a far smaller or non-existent drop in U6 unemployment.
    We've never seen such a thing before. They tend to move in the same direction at about the same rate of change. Oh, and U6 is NOT a measure of unemployment as it includes many employed in the numerator.
    Last edited by pinqy; 01-15-14 at 11:29 PM.
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    That is, once again, completely inaccurate. The total number of those unemployed is not tracked through unemployment compensation, and those who fail to receive benefits may still be counted as unemployed. Straight from the source:


    How the Government Measures Unemployment
    Yep, you're right. Thank you for the correction.
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Why are you starting with the U6 and U5 instead of just using the number from the report?
    Thank you for pointing this out. I was not aware the Fed's database contained all BLS data.

    But do you see how someone might think from your post that the U6 did measure that in some way?
    Yes, but let me assure you it was not my intent.

    Yes it can and no it doesn't
    You just have to take the series "Part time for economic reasons all industries, put it on the s as me line as Labor Force (or employed, depending on what base you want) and divide.
    It does provide a more accurate metric than simply subtracting ratios.

    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    We've never seen such a thing before. They tend to move in the same direction at about the same rate of change. Oh, and U6 is NOT a measure of unemployment as it includes many employed in the numerator.

    Yes, U6 measures unemployment and under employment. But no, they don't always move in the same direction and at the same rate. Just this past month U3 dropped 0.3% while U6 remained steady. The month prior the U6 declined at 3 times the rate of U3. And before that U6 increased while U3 remained steady, and so on.

    Also, those who stop looking for work to show up in U6 but drop out of U3.
    Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Teach a man to fish and he stops voting for the Free Fish party.

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    That is precisely what just happened.
    Reid is one sly devil who will do anything and everything to remain the majority leader. Nothing else matters to him even if the million plus unemployed goes without benefits.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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