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Thread: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass Sen

  1. #41
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    Yeah, life is a bitch sometimes, isn't it. Is that you playing the violin in the background?
    Just me being realistic about what can destroy a person's confidence and sense of self worth.
    "Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud... [he's] playing the American public for suckers." Mitt Romney

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by Dittohead not! View Post
    Just me being realistic about what can destroy a person's confidence and sense of self worth.
    We're talking about people here who have been receiving upwards of 99 weeks of unemployment insurance benefits and looking to get that extended. If they haven't developed a sense of self worth, confidence and a pretty thick skin by now, there's not much hope that a few extra months of benefits is going to change anything. Should they be offered benefits in perpetuity?
    "Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views." William F. Buckley Jr.

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    We're talking about people here who have been receiving upwards of 99 weeks of unemployment insurance benefits and looking to get that extended. If they haven't developed a sense of self worth, confidence and a pretty thick skin by now, there's not much hope that a few extra months of benefits is going to change anything. Should they be offered benefits in perpetuity?
    Actually, they were talking about extending it once again to 99 weeks. Once they've had that, then there is no more anyway. It's time to take whatever is available, or move where the job market is better. I know people who chose the latter option and are doing much better now. But, the reality is that looking and looking, and constantly being turned down for work can lead one to despair.

    Now, here is a question:

    Are there enough jobs for everyone? If no, then if someone is out of work long term, is it due to laziness, or lack of work?

    Option 1: The economy is getting better, the job market is improving, and so anyone who tries hard enough can find work.

    Option 2: The economy is in the toilet, therefore, people out of work is a failure of the people in charge of the economic policies, and not the individual job seeker.

    Believing both at the same time requires a talent for doublethink.
    "Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud... [he's] playing the American public for suckers." Mitt Romney

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by Dittohead not! View Post
    Actually, they were talking about extending it once again to 99 weeks. Once they've had that, then there is no more anyway. It's time to take whatever is available, or move where the job market is better. I know people who chose the latter option and are doing much better now. But, the reality is that looking and looking, and constantly being turned down for work can lead one to despair.

    Now, here is a question:

    Are there enough jobs for everyone? If no, then if someone is out of work long term, is it due to laziness, or lack of work?

    Option 1: The economy is getting better, the job market is improving, and so anyone who tries hard enough can find work.

    Option 2: The economy is in the toilet, therefore, people out of work is a failure of the people in charge of the economic policies, and not the individual job seeker.

    Believing both at the same time requires a talent for doublethink.
    It's due to laziness - more specifically, it's due to them refusing to work in a field that may not be identical to the one they just left, and deciding to "wait it out" while staying on the dole.

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by Gipper View Post
    It's due to laziness - more specifically, it's due to them refusing to work in a field that may not be identical to the one they just left, and deciding to "wait it out" while staying on the dole.
    I see. So, you believe option 1, the job market is getting better?
    "Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud... [he's] playing the American public for suckers." Mitt Romney

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    You don't. You fall out when you stop getting them. If BLS can't track you through a government unemployment program or tax data then you don't count in the U3 Unemployment statistic.

    I would guess what Zero Hedge is talking about is the very real phenomenon where people dropping out of Unemployment programs are no longer counted as employed. They are "discouraged workers" and only get counted in U6 Unemployment figures.

    So if you have 3 out of 10 people unemployed but enrolled in a jobs program then U3 would show 7/10 employed and a 30% unemployment. If those 1 of those people drops out of the unemployment program, even though they never found a job, the U3 number is 7/9 or 23% unemployment. It looks like unemployment is dropping when in fact it isn't.

    What we will see, more than likely, is a precipitous drop in the U3 unemployment with a far smaller or non-existent drop in U6 unemployment.
    Where on earth did you come up with that nonsense? I'm honestly curious what source you used, because that is about the strangest, and most off the wall claim I've ever heard.
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    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Unfortunately, BLS does not collect the qualitative data necessary to measure full time underemployment.
    What are you defining as full time underemployment? I've never heard that expression so I'm not sure what you mean by it? I think you might be talking about underemployment meaning overqualified for a job, but since there's no objective definition, it.s not possible to measure that.

    You can tease discouraged workers out of the u6-u5 spread, but that really doesn't achieve the desired result.
    Why would you have to "tease" them out instead of just constructing the ratio without them?

    My example was to convey the idea of underemployment to another poster. The graph was just to drive home the idea that underemployment is a problem within this recovery.
    I understood what you were doing, but you were t a liking about people working for lower salaries or jobs they were overqualified for, but NOW in no way measures that as nd it's certainly not part of the U6
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  8. #48
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    What are you defining as full time underemployment? I've never heard that expression so I'm not sure what you mean by it? I think you might be talking about underemployment meaning overqualified for a job, but since there's no objective definition, it.s not possible to measure that.
    Part time underemployment is expressed explicitly as the spread between U6 and U5. Full time underemployment in is the theoretical construct of a person whose skill-set supersedes the requirements of their job, who happen to work full time. And yes, there is no survey to test for this situation.

    Why would you have to "tease" them out instead of just constructing the ratio without them?
    Can't be done within the Fed's economic database. It has to be derived from U4 and U3 data to be expressed graphically.

    I understood what you were doing, but you were t a liking about people working for lower salaries or jobs they were overqualified for, but NOW in no way measures that as nd it's certainly not part of the U6
    This is true, and i should have done a better job at differentiating each concept (example and visual).
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Part time underemployment is expressed explicitly as the spread between U6 and U5.
    Why are you starting with the U6 and U5 instead of just using the number from the report?

    Full time underemployment in is the theoretical construct of a person whose skill-set supersedes the requirements of their job, who happen to work full time. And yes, there is no survey to test for this situation.
    But do you see how someone might think from your post that the U6 did measure that in some way?



    an't be done within the Fed's economic database. It has to be derived from U4 and U3 data to be expressed graphically.
    Yes it can and no it doesn't
    You just have to take the series "Part time for economic reasons all industries, put it on the s as me line as Labor Force (or employed, depending on what base you want) and divide.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  10. #50
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    Whether or not one receives unemployment benefits does not effect one's unemployment status. It's not taken into account by the Bureau. The BLS also does not "track" the work status of individuals over time.
    False. BLS tracks UNEMPLOYMENT by the total number of people registered in unemployment programs who can therefor be tracked as looking for work. If those people stop participating in an unemployment program they drop off the U3 statistic, so they are not counted as unemployed in the official unemployment number. They do show up on U6, though.
    Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Teach a man to fish and he stops voting for the Free Fish party.

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