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Thread: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass Sen

  1. #31
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by specklebang View Post
    Why do you "fall out of the labor force" when you get these benefits? Real question.
    You don't. You fall out when you stop getting them. If BLS can't track you through a government unemployment program or tax data then you don't count in the U3 Unemployment statistic.

    I would guess what Zero Hedge is talking about is the very real phenomenon where people dropping out of Unemployment programs are no longer counted as employed. They are "discouraged workers" and only get counted in U6 Unemployment figures.

    So if you have 3 out of 10 people unemployed but enrolled in a jobs program then U3 would show 7/10 employed and a 30% unemployment. If those 1 of those people drops out of the unemployment program, even though they never found a job, the U3 number is 7/9 or 23% unemployment. It looks like unemployment is dropping when in fact it isn't.

    What we will see, more than likely, is a precipitous drop in the U3 unemployment with a far smaller or non-existent drop in U6 unemployment.
    Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Teach a man to fish and he stops voting for the Free Fish party.

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by reinoe View Post
    The labor force consists of people working and looking for work. However the people looking for work only count for around six months. Anyone looking for work for more than 6 months (about 24-25 weeks) is no longer counted.
    Absolutely untrue. There is no maximum time As long as you're trying to find work, you're classified as unemployed.
    A-35. Unemployed total and full-time workers by duration of unemployment shows over 2.5 million unemployed over a year.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  3. #33
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    What's horse **** is presuming that underemployment is the only option. There are many cases where individuals wouldn't be underemployed, just underpaid in their own inflated view of their worth. It may seem trite to you, perhaps someone who believes living off the avails of the working is more honorable than a decent days work, but not to me.

    I'll give an example that may be laughable to you, but I remember a movie titled Kramer vs Kramer where a father was fighting for custody of his child and he lost his high paying job just before his court hearing. He didn't sit back and wait for another high paying job to come his way or wallow in the unfairness. He went out and beat the streets and got a similar job to the one he had, but at the bottom of the ladder at a fraction of his former salary because he needed a job in order to save his hope of keeping custody of his son.

    More people need to get back on the bottom rungs of the ladder and work themselves back up to the positions they had prior to the recession. That's what I'm talking about, not some idiotic example of an accountant working as a janitor.
    Movie analogies aside, underemployment is detrimental to long term employment growth..., not to mention long term productivity. An economic policy that incentivizes skill mismatch might have some emotional support/appeal, but from a purely economic POV, people would be better served upskilling/retraining than working full time at a job they are clearly overqualified to hold.

    For many American firms, the legacy cost of employing well into a person's 60's is a burden many companies have been relieving themselves of as of recently (circa 2009). Why pay a mid level executive $100k/yr + benefits for him and his family when you can hire a young buck and train them at 60% the cost? Kids, house, families cost of living, education expenses, etc... does cost money. Selling the house, cashing in the 401k and moving to another location is not the tempting option it once was (well, maybe partially due to various credit easing policies, but hey), especially if they are within the realm of negative equity. That's always an encouraging dose of reality, paying on $30k you owe the bank after selling the house, grossing $45k/yr. They were better off staying where they were, working as a janitor!

    And just so it's clear, underemployment has been the norm when it comes to job growth these past few years. Underemployment can be accurately estimated by the spread between U6 and U5 alternative underutilization measures.

    Ladies and gentleman, i give you the underemployment rate in the U.S.



    FWIW, i was setting you up for this.
    Last edited by Kushinator; 01-15-14 at 04:51 PM.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    Perhaps the people in the 20 to 24 yr range aren't acquiring the skills and knowledge necessary to enter the workforce where there is need. How many of those 20 to 24 yr olds have a virtually useless BA in some liberal arts field? Somebody 20 to 24 has no need for 2 plus years of unemployment insurance benefits - period.


    I think you have a pretty misconstrued value of what an education entails.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    Perhaps the people in the 20 to 24 yr range aren't acquiring the skills and knowledge necessary to enter the workforce where there is need. How many of those 20 to 24 yr olds have a virtually useless BA in some liberal arts field? Somebody 20 to 24 has no need for 2 plus years of unemployment insurance benefits - period.
    Bachelor's, master's, and doctor's degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by field of study: Selected years, 1970-71 through 2011-12

    Using the numbers posted in here the % of degrees in Social science and Humanities are either close to or less than the average. Computer science/Business have seen huge gains.

    I don't think it pans out that everyone is getting social science degrees or Humanities degrees and therefore can't find jobs.

    For graduate school the degrees people are getting are moving much more towards business and further away from Humanities and Social Science.

    It's not the kids just graduating fault...it's a weak job market.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

  6. #36
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    Sure cut them off, and remove them from the labour force for being lazy.... but that does not mean that there are jobs for them to get and that is the problem. All it does, is increase the poverty levels.. and I guess that is the strategy of the GOP these days.
    if you are considered long term unemployed IE > 6 months companies are not even looking at your resume.

    The Terrifying Reality of Long-Term Unemployment - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic

    how hard is it to go to a local store or some where else and apply for a job. no it might not be the work you want to do but you will have an easier time finding a job if you have a job vs sitting back collecting unemployment.

    so the people that have been out for 2 years not getting a job have basically shot themselves in the head, but who cares they are getting free money to sit at home.

    Unemployment is meant for short term compensation while you try and find another job it isn't a long term lifestyle. if you can't find some kind of work any kind of work in 2 years you have issues.

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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Movie analogies aside, underemployment is detrimental to long term employment growth..., not to mention long term productivity. An economic policy that incentivizes skill mismatch might have some emotional support/appeal, but from a purely economic POV, people would be better served upskilling/retraining than working full time at a job they are clearly overqualified to hold.

    For many American firms, the legacy cost of employing well into a person's 60's is a burden many companies have been relieving themselves of as of recently (circa 2009). Why pay a mid level executive $100k/yr + benefits for him and his family when you can hire a young buck and train them at 60% the cost? Kids, house, families cost of living, education expenses, etc... does cost money. Selling the house, cashing in the 401k and moving to another location is not the tempting option it once was (well, maybe partially due to various credit easing policies, but hey), especially if they are within the realm of negative equity. That's always an encouraging dose of reality, paying on $30k you owe the bank after selling the house, grossing $45k/yr. They were better off staying where they were, working as a janitor!

    And just so it's clear, underemployment has been the norm when it comes to job growth these past few years. Underemployment can be accurately estimated by the spread between U6 and U5 alternative underutilization measures.

    Ladies and gentleman, i give you the underemployment rate in the U.S.



    FWIW, i was setting you up for this.
    The U6 doesn't measure underemployment as you seem to be describing. In addition to the unemployed and marginally attached, it includes those working part time for economic reasons. Those are people who want to and can work 35+ hours a week but worked less than 35 due to slow business or couldn't find a full time job. Experience, education, or previous salary are irrelevant.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  8. #38
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    The U6 doesn't measure underemployment as you seem to be describing. In addition to the unemployed and marginally attached, it includes those working part time for economic reasons. Those are people who want to and can work 35+ hours a week but worked less than 35 due to slow business or couldn't find a full time job. Experience, education, or previous salary are irrelevant.
    Unfortunately, BLS does not collect the qualitative data necessary to measure full time underemployment. You can tease discouraged workers out of the u6-u5 spread, but that really doesn't achieve the desired result.

    My example was to convey the idea of underemployment to another poster. The graph was just to drive home the idea that underemployment is a problem within this recovery.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

  9. #39
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    You don't. You fall out when you stop getting them. If BLS can't track you through a government unemployment program or tax data then you don't count in the U3 Unemployment statistic.
    Whether or not one receives unemployment benefits does not effect one's unemployment status. It's not taken into account by the Bureau. The BLS also does not "track" the work status of individuals over time.

  10. #40
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    Re: Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    You don't. You fall out when you stop getting them. If BLS can't track you through a government unemployment program or tax data then you don't count in the U3 Unemployment statistic.

    I would guess what Zero Hedge is talking about is the very real phenomenon where people dropping out of Unemployment programs are no longer counted as employed. They are "discouraged workers" and only get counted in U6 Unemployment figures.

    So if you have 3 out of 10 people unemployed but enrolled in a jobs program then U3 would show 7/10 employed and a 30% unemployment. If those 1 of those people drops out of the unemployment program, even though they never found a job, the U3 number is 7/9 or 23% unemployment. It looks like unemployment is dropping when in fact it isn't.

    What we will see, more than likely, is a precipitous drop in the U3 unemployment with a far smaller or non-existent drop in U6 unemployment.
    I've always contended that these unemployment numbers are meaningless and this just supports my theory.

    OTOH, I was listening to the radio on my way around today and they were discussing how millions of people are pressuring the states to legalize online gaming wit only one major player fighting it - Sheldon Adelson, who can't abide the thought of anyone making money except his own selfish-prick billionaire self. And it made me think that if millions are worried about this form of wasting money - how bad can things be really?

    I don't think the employment picture is all that pretty but apparently plenty of people have good enough jobs to even care about online gaming. I suppose only a Nevadan would fully grok this, but you should see what I'm referring to.

    Thanks for the intelligent and logical response to my original question.

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