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Thread: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

  1. #51
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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Sure SD. You go tell all that bull**** to the administration, the Pentagon, the CFR and other think tanks full of people with just a little bit more knowledge on the subject than you, all the analysts, including the one in the op and let us know what you hear back.
    The analysts are always ginning up threats. How do you think they justify the fact that we spend more on defense than the next umpteen countries combined. A few years ago they were talking about a resurgent Russia and how much of a threat they were going to be. Mind you the country could not even fuel its navy, but just the same they were supposed to be a growing threat.

    China is our competitor, not our enemy. There are no parallels between China and the former USSR. We are economically integrated with China. They are not going to go to war with us. Hell, visit the country, they like us.
    "You're the only person that decides how far you'll go and what you're capable of." - Ben Saunders (Explorer and Endurance Athlete)

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    We do not want an nationalist autocracy to dominate the most populous and economically important continent on the planet. It is in our interests to prevent this from occurring politically, economically, and morally.
    But why do we have to be an adversary of China? I mean we don't treat Europe like this.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    Calm down man, I'm actually on your side here. One doesn't need to be a superpower to adequately defend two small bodies of water. I'm just saying that their emphasis isn't on power projection or open water navies, but in A2/AD. Here's a paper on the subject (From the Naval War College no less):

    http://www.usnwc.edu/Lucent/OpenPdf....n%20Transition
    But that was a very calm post, with no exclamations, no caps and no cursing, lol!

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    However, I am confident that China and Russia would give us discount prices to make our uniforms, electronics and weapons systems to keep them in check.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    China could soon defeat the United States and its allies in a naval conflict in the East Pacific, says Vassily Kashin, a senior research fellow at the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

    In a commentary published on Dec. 27 on the website of the Voice of Russia, the Russian government's international radio broadcasting service, Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region after it completes its current cycle of reforming and rearming the People's Liberation Army.

    "China could be able of reaching its political goals even before the US localizes all the necessary forces for a full-scale counterattack," Kashin said.

    China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst


    Well, we could only hope that such events need not ever be stress tested.
    There is the thing about red lines and war. If the adversary thinks you are a wimp and will not push the button, MAD does not work.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat View Post
    The analysts are always ginning up threats. How do you think they justify the fact that we spend more on defense than the next umpteen countries combined. A few years ago they were talking about a resurgent Russia and how much of a threat they were going to be. Mind you the country could not even fuel its navy, but just the same they were supposed to be a growing threat.

    China is our competitor, not our enemy. There are no parallels between China and the former USSR. We are economically integrated with China. They are not going to go to war with us. Hell, visit the country, they like us.
    What about China creating "Self-Defense Zones". That seems to be a bit provocative doesn't it?

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    But that was a very calm post, with no exclamations, no caps and no cursing, lol!
    I'm just imagining you as the homeless guy running around in rags with a sign screaming "The end is nigh!"

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    But why do we have to be an adversary of China? I mean we don't treat Europe like this.
    Because Europe is a collection of democratic polities that we trust due to their system of government which in turn allows them to work in concert with us and vice versa. It is why even at the height of the fears of Japanese economic hegemony in the 1980's we never seriously considered the need for a future military bulwark against Japan, or when India was performing more strongly alongside China in the 1990's we never speculated about an Indian containment strategy. It goes to the core of Democratic Peace.

    Edit: While China for all its protestations to the contrary is self-aggrandizing power with regional and global pretensions that are contrary to our interests and beyond our ability to trust.
    Last edited by Sherman123; 12-30-13 at 05:00 PM.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    Because Europe is a collection of democratic polities that we trust due to their system of government which in turn allows them to work in concert with us and vice versa. It is why even at the height of the fears of Japanese economic hegemony in the 1980's we never seriously considered the need for a future military bulwark against Japan, or when India was performing more strongly alongside China in the 1990's we never speculated about an Indian containment strategy. It goes to the core of Democratic Peace.
    So because they have a different form of government, that makes them a potential enemy. I get what your saying, but when you boil it down, doesn't it sound petty?

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    What about China creating "Self-Defense Zones". That seems to be a bit provocative doesn't it?
    Is it any different than what we have one around our own country. It is certainly not like they are asserting Manifest Destiny over their whole hemisphere or anything. I am not saying they are not going to be provocative from time to time, or flex their muscles in the region from time to time, but I don't believe it will ever lead to any sort of real conflict at all. We are simply too economically integrated for that to happen. Name any decent sized western company and they have operations in China. Any decent sized Chinese company has operations over here. In past large conflicts between great powers you simply did not have that kind of economic "globalism" integration. In 1914, Germany did not have large numbers of factories in Britain. In 1940, Japan did not have corporate offices all over the United States. At no time in the Cold War did we have any real economic integration with the USSR.
    "You're the only person that decides how far you'll go and what you're capable of." - Ben Saunders (Explorer and Endurance Athlete)

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