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Thread: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

  1. #41
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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat View Post
    China cannot even feed itself. It lacks the arable land to do so. Have you ever been there? They may one day rival us in power, but it won't be in the next few years I assure you. A country with a per-capita GDP of around 6k is not going to take on a country with a per-capita GDP of over 50k. It's just not going to happen. Moreover, half the large companies operating in China are American and other western corporations. You think the CCP is going to blow all that up? Shut their economy down over night? The only reason the CCP is still in power in China is economic growth. The communist party there starts sweating bullets when GDP growth drops into the high single digits. That country is dealing with massive domestic problems as it is… Horrible Pollution, Population Displacement, Out Of Control Housing Costs, Desertification, Rampant Corruption… Hell about a forth of the countries population has hepatitis because it took them forever to clean up their blood banks. Half the country is running out of water, and the pollution is so bad in the cities that it cuts their life expectancy by 5 years. The problem we have in this country are petty in comparison to what China faces. Why would they create a new huge problem for themselves by starting a war?
    Sure SD. You go tell all that bull**** to the administration, the Pentagon, the CFR and other think tanks full of people with just a little bit more knowledge on the subject than you, all the analysts, including the one in the op and let us know what you hear back.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    Have you seen their Aircraft Carrier? It doesn't even have any aircraft at this point. Trust me, that thing would be destroyed within the first hour of the war because it doesn't have the backup to support it. China doesn't care about a blue water navy at this point. And it will still be a couple of decades until their Air Force can really match ours in terms of technology or capability. Keep in mind that we've been at war for over a decade at this point. Again though, China only cares about it's area of the world. The cruise missiles are the biggest threats there, I do agree.
    Ok. Then perhaps these reports I'm posting is just Bush era type fear-mongering to gin up support for a war with China.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    Again though, it's all about priorities. To maintain a world wide military requires at least 600 billion dollars, and that's not including the wars and such. China only needs to worry about Taiwan, East and South China Sea and that's it. They don't care for any other problems around the world. You won't see them sending troops abroad. Therefore, there not going to invest in the Carriers, Aircraft, Navy, capable of fulfilling such a role. If they needed to lock down either the East or South China Sea, they could do so in short order by 2020, without major shift in priorities to the Pacific. (which we are pivoting to I grant you, but we're still behind.)
    I also doubt that China spends $840,000 per military veteran either. And we have millions of them. They will be far more efficient with their funds - and of course it is their turf also making it cost effective. The only reason China isn't more of a super power now is there was no reason to be. With us circling around them saber rattling, now they do. This is a wet dream made by and coming true for military industrialists.
    Last edited by joko104; 12-30-13 at 04:53 PM.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    There is a bizarre view that the USA has the task of "containing" every country on earth. That is just asserted. There is no merit to it.

    China is the most populous and largest country in their region. And they are an industrial giant. Plus they are a nuclear power. Therefore, it is in the normal order of things that China would dominate their region economically, politically and militarily. It is only the endless clamor of the military industrialists, those in the military with personal interests, and air chair warriors for which the universal response is "So what? China poised no military threat against the USA - and it is our thousands of nuclear weapons that says so."

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    No, it is not. All serious academics see China as a growing threat to WestPac presently and beyond in the future.
    I didn't say they didn't. I said none would accept that China is capable of making up all the progress necessary to defeat the United States over the next seven years. Especially not in the 'Eastern Pacific' as the author purports as this would mean fighting the United States closer to California and Mexico than Asia. This is a silly article.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    China could soon defeat the United States and its allies in a naval conflict in the East Pacific, says Vassily Kashin, a senior research fellow at the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

    In a commentary published on Dec. 27 on the website of the Voice of Russia, the Russian government's international radio broadcasting service, Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region after it completes its current cycle of reforming and rearming the People's Liberation Army.

    "
    China could be able of reaching its political goals even before the US localizes all the necessary forces for a full-scale counterattack,"
    Kashin said.

    China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst


    Well, we could only hope that such events need not ever be stress tested.



    Yeah, and if your aunt was a man s/he could be your auncle.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Ok. Then perhaps these reports I'm posting is just Bush era type fear-mongering to gin up support for a war with China.
    Calm down man, I'm actually on your side here. One doesn't need to be a superpower to adequately defend two small bodies of water. I'm just saying that their emphasis isn't on power projection or open water navies, but in A2/AD. Here's a paper on the subject (From the Naval War College no less):

    http://www.usnwc.edu/Lucent/OpenPdf....n%20Transition

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    Oh I'm not dismissive of them I agree that it would be no cake walk with them, and I'd probably be willing to bet on their side in a few more years, but I know what China's goals are. And China is smart enough to not spread itself out to thin. They'll let our politicians and generals continue to think the Carrier is a threat, all the while there developing missiles, EW, and other technologies to allow them to lock down the East and South China Seas.
    Well that's the whole point, isn't it. China wants to deny US interference in the China sea, very critical for them. And as the reports I've been posting project, our Pentagon has very serious (their words) concerns about a fist fight with China. After all, administrations have been pitching them cake walks for the last several decades!

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by joko104 View Post
    There is a bizarre view that the USA has the task of "containing" every country on earth. That is just asserted. There is no merit to it.

    China is the most populous and largest country in their region. And they are an industrial giant. Plus they are a nuclear power. Therefore, it is in the normal order of things that China would dominate their region economically, politically and militarily. It is only the endless clamor of the military industrialists, those in the military with personal interests, and air chair warriors for which the universal response is "So what? China poised no military threat against the USA - and it is our thousands of nuclear weapons that says so."
    We do not want an nationalist autocracy to dominate the most populous and economically important continent on the planet. It is in our interests to prevent this from occurring politically, economically, and morally.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by shrubnose View Post
    Yeah, and if your aunt was a man s/he could be your auncle.
    That... is the oddest thing I've seen on here in a while. What does that even mean?

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