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Thread: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat View Post
    First off, the CCP is very pragmatic. There is no way they would ever do anything that would result in a military conflict with us. Their economy is entirely dependent on consumption in the United States and Western Europe. Their population is far too poor to provide anywhere near the kind of domestic consumption they need for a less dependent economy. If they had any sort of major conflict with us or one our allies, it would at minimum result in major economic sanctions against China by the west. This would quickly result in a total collaspe of the Chinese economy, and if it lasted very long at all, large-scale famines where tens of millions of Chinese would most likely starve. Do you think the CCP would survive that? Of course not. They might flex their muscles in the region from time to time, but in the end, they need us more than we need them, and they know it.
    Funny that CFR's report didn't just conclude that. And Funny that in 2011 Leon Panetta disclosed that the Pentagon would be transferring 60% of its assets to WestPac. And funny how Japan is all ass holes and elbows readying itself for such eventuality.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat View Post
    First off, the CCP is very pragmatic. There is no way they would ever do anything that would result in a military conflict with us. Their economy is entirely dependent on consumption in the United States and Western Europe. Their population is far too poor to provide anywhere near the kind of domestic consumption they need for a less dependent economy. If they had any sort of major conflict with us or one our allies, it would at minimum result in major economic sanctions against China by the west. This would quickly result in a total collaspe of the Chinese economy, and if it lasted very long at all, large-scale famines where tens of millions of Chinese would most likely starve. Do you think the CCP would survive that? Of course not. They might flex their muscles in the region from time to time, but in the end, they need us more than we need them, and they know it.
    The problem with that line of logic is that you assume that the CCP will always act rationally. Two scenarios come to mind where they wouldn't:

    1) Despite everyone painting such a rosy picture of China's economy, they have some serious underlining issues. I won't bore you with the details, but as you have said, they need to maintain about 7 or 8% GDP or start having to deal with the growing domestic issues of their country. At some point things are going to falter. Instead of dealing with the unrest inside their country, they would seek to focus their anger at an exterior source, and let's say it's the US/Japan. They gin up the people's anger, say it's all their fault, and eventually they must act. That action would either come from an Invasion of Taiwan, or some sort of Nationalistic movement asserting with more force their territorial claims.

    2) Guns of August. Both sides not just underestimate the other in terms of capabilities, but in their resolve. Let's say one day China takes a provocative move by forcing an encounter in one of the defense zones they have established. Things get tense up there, someone misjudges the other or makes a mistake, and that would be all the justification for military action. If an American got shot down, we probably would just smack sanctions on them, which the Chinese would then retaliate with their own. If a Chinese was shot down, you could be a nationalistic movement would rise up and demand action. It could easily become a situation where the leaders don't have control.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    SD, note the words "serious concerns"

    (Reuters) - China is using espionage to acquire technologies to fuel its fast-paced military modernization program, the Pentagon said on Monday in an annual report that for the first time accused Beijing of trying to break into U.S. defense computer networks.

    In its 83-page annual report to Congress on Chinese military developments, the Pentagon also cited progress in Beijing's effort to develop advanced-technology stealth aircraft and build an aircraft carrier fleet to project power further offshore.

    The report said China's cyber snooping was a "serious concern" that pointed to an even greater threat because the "skills required for these intrusions are similar to those necessary to conduct computer network attacks."

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...94511720130506

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    SD, note the words "serious concerns"

    (Reuters) - China is using espionage to acquire technologies to fuel its fast-paced military modernization program, the Pentagon said on Monday in an annual report that for the first time accused Beijing of trying to break into U.S. defense computer networks.

    In its 83-page annual report to Congress on Chinese military developments, the Pentagon also cited progress in Beijing's effort to develop advanced-technology stealth aircraft and build an aircraft carrier fleet to project power further offshore.

    The report said China's cyber snooping was a "serious concern" that pointed to an even greater threat because the "skills required for these intrusions are similar to those necessary to conduct computer network attacks."

    Espionage fuels China's fast-paced military buildup: Pentagon | Reuters
    The Carrier and the Stealth Aircraft projects are largely for show though. They are at least two decades out from being a serious threat on the world stage.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    The Carrier and the Stealth Aircraft projects are largely for show though. They are at least two decades out from being a serious threat on the world stage.
    U.S. Official Warns About China’s Military Buildup


    WASHINGTON — The pace and scope of China’s military buildup is “potentially destabilizing” in the Pacific, a top defense official warned Wednesday as the Pentagon released an annual report cataloging China’s cruise missiles, fighter jets and growing, modernizing army.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/25/world/25military.html

    I'm just not sure who would have a better handle on China's capabilities, the Pentagon, or Hamster Buddah

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    U.S. Official Warns About China’s Military Buildup

    WASHINGTON — The pace and scope of China’s military buildup is “potentially destabilizing” in the Pacific, a top defense official warned Wednesday as the Pentagon released an annual report cataloging China’s cruise missiles, fighter jets and growing, modernizing army.
    Have you seen their Aircraft Carrier? It doesn't even have any aircraft at this point. Trust me, that thing would be destroyed within the first hour of the war because it doesn't have the backup to support it. China doesn't care about a blue water navy at this point. And it will still be a couple of decades until their Air Force can really match ours in terms of technology or capability. Keep in mind that we've been at war for over a decade at this point. Again though, China only cares about it's area of the world. The cruise missiles are the biggest threats there, I do agree.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Funny that CFR's report didn't just conclude that. And Funny that in 2011 Leon Panetta disclosed that the Pentagon would be transferring 60% of its assets to WestPac. And funny how Japan is all ass holes and elbows readying itself for such eventuality.
    China cannot even feed itself. It lacks the arable land to do so. Have you ever been there? They may one day rival us in power, but it won't be in the next few years I assure you. A country with a per-capita GDP of around 6k is not going to take on a country with a per-capita GDP of over 50k. It's just not going to happen. Moreover, half the large companies operating in China are American and other western corporations. You think the CCP is going to blow all that up? Shut their economy down over night? The only reason the CCP is still in power in China is economic growth. The communist party there starts sweating bullets when GDP growth drops into the high single digits. That country is dealing with massive domestic problems as it is… Horrible Pollution, Population Displacement, Out Of Control Housing Costs, Desertification, Rampant Corruption… Hell about a forth of the countries population has hepatitis because it took them forever to clean up their blood banks. Half the country is running out of water, and the pollution is so bad in the cities that it cuts their life expectancy by 5 years. The problem we have in this country are petty in comparison to what China faces. Why would they create a new huge problem for themselves by starting a war?
    "You're the only person that decides how far you'll go and what you're capable of." - Ben Saunders (Explorer and Endurance Athlete)

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat View Post
    China cannot even feed itself. It lacks the arable land to do so. Have you ever been there? They may one day rival us in power, but it won't be in the next few years I assure you. A country with a per-capita GDP of around 6k is not going to take on a country with a per-capita GDP of over 50k. It's just not going to happen. Moreover, half the large companies operating in China are American and other western corporations. You think the CCP is going to blow all that up? Shut their economy down over night? The only reason the CCP is still in power in China is economic growth. The communist party there starts sweating bullets when GDP growth drops into the high single digits. That country is dealing with massive domestic problems as it is… Horrible Pollution, Population Displacement, Out Of Control Housing Costs, Desertification, Rampant Corruption… Hell about a forth of the countries population has hepatitis because it took them forever to clean up their blood banks. Half the country is running out of water, and the pollution is so bad in the cities that it cuts their life expectancy by 5 years. The problem we have in this country are petty in comparison to what China faces. Why would they create a new huge problem for themselves by starting a war?
    I really do recommend the Guns of August.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    The Carrier and the Stealth Aircraft projects are largely for show though. They are at least two decades out from being a serious threat on the world stage.
    You are familiar with what industry was able to do in the US during the four short years of WW11. China is the manufacturing hub of the world now. People keep pretending like taking on China would be like taking on Iraq, Libya, or A-Stan. What is it with the dismissive attitude about China?

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    You are familiar with what industry was able to do in the US during the four short years of WW11. China is the manufacturing hub of the world now. People keep pretending like taking on China would be like taking on Iraq, Libya, or A-Stan. What is it with the dismissive attitude about China?
    Oh I'm not dismissive of them I agree that it would be no cake walk with them, and I'd probably be willing to bet on their side in a few more years, but I know what China's goals are. And China is smart enough to not spread itself out to thin. They'll let our politicians and generals continue to think the Carrier is a threat, all the while there developing missiles, EW, and other technologies to allow them to lock down the East and South China Seas.

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