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Thread: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat View Post
    Actually those numbers are just general defense spending. They don't include the costs of the wars in Afghanistan. Anyway you slice it, we outspend China on defense by at least 6 to 1. Moreover, China cannot significantly increase its defense spending without risk of instability in China. For the CCP to have any legitimacy with the Chinese people, they must have strong economic growth every year. They do this by massively investing in infrastructure and economic development in general. If they tried to keep up with us in defense spending it would only result in less economic growth, the Chinese bubble may well would burst, and they would risk an open revolt against the CCP.
    Again, the US is cutting defense spending while China's is on steroids, and your 100 billion figure is just wrong.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    I doubt quite strongly the idea that China could defeat the U.S. in the water. Granted, China does have ship-killing missiles, but the air power off our carriers alone would wipe out China's navy.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    China’s defense budget will double by 2015, making it more than the rest of the Asia Pacific region’s combined, according to a report from IHS Jane’s, a global think tank specializing in security issues.

    Beijing’s military spending will reach $238.2 billion in 2015, compared with $232.5 billion for rest of the region, according to the report. That would also be almost four times the expected defense budget of Japan, the next biggest in the region, in 2015, the report said.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2...y-2015-report/


    Only fools treat China as a paper tiger.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat View Post
    Maybe so, but I will say that last time I was there I actually ended up running with a group of PLA soldiers around Guangzhou. In a country with the nicest airports you will ever see, some of the most technologically advanced infrastructure on earth, their soldiers looked pathetic at best. They looked like what one would picture any third world army would look like. Old ragged uniforms, cheap looking guns, obviously poorly paid, and looking a bit malnourished. Just saying, from what I have seen over in China myself, I don't think we should be overly concerned.
    It won't be a ground war that we will have to wage with China though. What it will probably become is an attempt to assert it's rights and aggressively defend it's claims in the East and South China Sea. The US and Japan won't tolerate this, and that's when war would break out. Not a world war scale, but a naval/air force action which they have been preparing for the last 20 or so years. At that point, it will probably devolve into a blockade of some sort to try and starve out the country of energy and food, because China doesn't have the force projection capabilities they won't be able to break it. In response, they'll probably send out their diesel sub fleet and start hitting our shipping and oil rigs that we rely on. Then it just be a question of who is willing to suffer the longest, odds are that the US would cave first, as public opinion will probably see it as just another war "over there" and Japan doesn't have the resources to wage that kind of war for a prolonged period of time.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Jango View Post
    I doubt quite strongly the idea that China could defeat the U.S. in the water. Granted, China does have ship-killing missiles, but the air power off our carriers alone would wipe out China's navy.
    We're not going to see a blue water style action though. Like I've said before, the Chinese will attempt to lock down interests in the East or South China Sea (like those islands they were feuding over) and we would have to respond. And the closer you get to china, you're going to deal with the 21st Century equivalent of the Atlantic Wall.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Jango View Post
    I doubt quite strongly the idea that China could defeat the U.S. in the water. Granted, China does have ship-killing missiles, but the air power off our carriers alone would wipe out China's navy.
    Yes, of course. They are the paper tiger.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Again, the US is cutting defense spending while China's is on steroids, and your 100 billion figure is just wrong.
    Let's say its 200 billion. Still it is much less than ours, and unlike the United States, they don't have the benefit of decades of massive investments in defense technology, ships, planes and equipment. What would you have us do, start another arms race with a country that is not even an enemy, but rather just a competitor? China's per-capita GDP is a fraction of ours (about 15% what ours is). They simply do not have the kind of money to compete with us in terms of defense. People have this misconception of China being a very rich country. It's not. It is a nation with some very modern cities on the coasts, and the majority of it's population living in abject poverty.
    "You're the only person that decides how far you'll go and what you're capable of." - Ben Saunders (Explorer and Endurance Athlete)

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat View Post
    Let's say its 200 billion. Still it is much less than ours, and unlike the United States, they don't have the benefit of decades of massive investments in defense technology, ships, planes and equipment. What would you have us do, start another arms race with a country that is not even an enemy, but rather just a competitor? China's per-capita GDP is a fraction of ours (about 15% what ours is). They simply do not have the kind of money to compete with us in terms of defense. People have this misconception of China being a very rich country. It's not. It is a nation with some very modern cities on the coasts, and the majority of it's population living in abject poverty.
    Look at post 23 for a better figure. No, I'm certainly not interested in any type of race with China. The point is that China is responding to US aggression, namely the pre-emptive strike policy begun by Bush, against any country we claim has the ability and desire to attack us. Which is total foolishness. The whole "mushroom clouds over an American city" meme is bull****, but that's what you get when you bully the world. So China is preparing, and who could blame them.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    I have a question that doesn't seem to have been answered yet:

    Who cares?
    He touched her over her bra and underpants, she says, and guided her hand to touch him over his underwear
    Quote Originally Posted by Lutherf View Post
    We’ll say what? Something like “nothing happened” ... Yeah, we might say something like that.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    It won't be a ground war that we will have to wage with China though. What it will probably become is an attempt to assert it's rights and aggressively defend it's claims in the East and South China Sea. The US and Japan won't tolerate this, and that's when war would break out. Not a world war scale, but a naval/air force action which they have been preparing for the last 20 or so years. At that point, it will probably devolve into a blockade of some sort to try and starve out the country of energy and food, because China doesn't have the force projection capabilities they won't be able to break it. In response, they'll probably send out their diesel sub fleet and start hitting our shipping and oil rigs that we rely on. Then it just be a question of who is willing to suffer the longest, odds are that the US would cave first, as public opinion will probably see it as just another war "over there" and Japan doesn't have the resources to wage that kind of war for a prolonged period of time.
    First off, the CCP is very pragmatic. There is no way they would ever do anything that would result in a military conflict with us. Their economy is entirely dependent on consumption in the United States and Western Europe. Their population is far too poor to provide anywhere near the kind of domestic consumption they need for a less dependent economy. If they had any sort of major conflict with us or one our allies, it would at minimum result in major economic sanctions against China by the west. This would quickly result in a total collaspe of the Chinese economy, and if it lasted very long at all, large-scale famines where tens of millions of Chinese would most likely starve. Do you think the CCP would survive that? Of course not. They might flex their muscles in the region from time to time, but in the end, they need us more than we need them, and they know it.
    "You're the only person that decides how far you'll go and what you're capable of." - Ben Saunders (Explorer and Endurance Athlete)

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