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Thread: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

  1. #11
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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    China could soon defeat the United States and its allies in a naval conflict in the East Pacific, says Vassily Kashin, a senior research fellow at the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

    In a commentary published on Dec. 27 on the website of the Voice of Russia, the Russian government's international radio broadcasting service, Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region after it completes its current cycle of reforming and rearming the People's Liberation Army.

    "China could be able of reaching its political goals even before the US localizes all the necessary forces for a full-scale counterattack," Kashin said.

    China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst


    Well, we could only hope that such events need not ever be stress tested.
    This seems absolutely absurd when you compare the defense budgets of the two nations:

    China Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 106 Billion

    United States Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 684 Billion (not counting off budget items throw those in and you get close to a trillion)

    Chinese military capabilities are absolutely dwarfed by ours in every way.
    "You're the only person that decides how far you'll go and what you're capable of." - Ben Saunders (Explorer and Endurance Athlete)

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    I would presume that "serious analysts" would be those ones which you agree with?!
    In the legitimate academic and military community. It is far and away the dominant consensus.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat View Post
    This seems absolutely absurd when you compare the defense budgets of the two nations:

    China Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 106 Billion

    United States Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 684 Billion (not counting off budget items throw those in and you get close to a trillion)

    Chinese military capabilities are absolutely dwarfed by ours in every way.
    It's a question of priorities. The US is spending all that money waging conflicts around the world and trying to be the world's policemen/superpower. China is concentrating on a regional hegemony. So while The US maybe be spending 700 Billion all over the world, there spending 100 Billion primarily focused on controlling the East and South China seas.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    It's a question of priorities. The US is spending all that money waging conflicts around the world and trying to be the world's policemen/superpower. China is concentrating on a regional hegemony. So while The US maybe be spending 700 Billion all over the world, there spending 100 Billion primarily focused on controlling the East and South China seas.
    Actually those numbers are just general defense spending. They don't include the costs of the wars in Afghanistan. Anyway you slice it, we outspend China on defense by at least 6 to 1. Moreover, China cannot significantly increase its defense spending without risk of instability in China. For the CCP to have any legitimacy with the Chinese people, they must have strong economic growth every year. They do this by massively investing in infrastructure and economic development in general. If they tried to keep up with us in defense spending it would only result in less economic growth, the Chinese bubble may well would burst, and they would risk an open revolt against the CCP.
    "You're the only person that decides how far you'll go and what you're capable of." - Ben Saunders (Explorer and Endurance Athlete)

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Deleted.
    Last edited by Montecresto; 12-30-13 at 03:57 PM.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat View Post
    This seems absolutely absurd when you compare the defense budgets of the two nations:

    China Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 106 Billion

    United States Defense Budget Fiscal 2012 - 684 Billion (not counting off budget items throw those in and you get close to a trillion)

    Chinese military capabilities are absolutely dwarfed by ours in every way.
    The pentagon says that China is under reporting their white paper budgets. Furthermore, the Pentagon budget you quote includes the expenses of the US to stick its military nose in every corner of the earth. China isn't projecting itself in that way, it has hugely increased its military budget in the last decade, concerned about US imperialism.

    China clearly complicates U.S. defense planning in Asia, says CFR's Senior Fellow for China Studies, Adam Segal. The Pentagon's 2008 report to Congress states: "Current trends in China's military capabilities are a major factor in changing East Asian military balances, and could provide China with a force capable of prosecuting a range of military operations in Asia-well beyond Taiwan."

    http://www.cfr.org/china/countering-...nization/p9052

    And I would point out that the Council on Foreign Relations report is 5 years old.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat View Post
    Actually those numbers are just general defense spending. They don't include the costs of the wars in Afghanistan. Anyway you slice it, we outspend China on defense by at least 6 to 1. Moreover, China cannot significantly increase its defense spending without risk of instability in China. For the CCP to have any legitimacy with the Chinese people, they must have strong economic growth every year. They do this by massively investing in infrastructure and economic development in general. If they tried to keep up with us in defense spending it would only result in less economic growth, the Chinese bubble may well would burst, and they would risk an open revolt against the CCP.
    Again though, it's all about priorities. To maintain a world wide military requires at least 600 billion dollars, and that's not including the wars and such. China only needs to worry about Taiwan, East and South China Sea and that's it. They don't care for any other problems around the world. You won't see them sending troops abroad. Therefore, there not going to invest in the Carriers, Aircraft, Navy, capable of fulfilling such a role. If they needed to lock down either the East or South China Sea, they could do so in short order by 2020, without major shift in priorities to the Pacific. (which we are pivoting to I grant you, but we're still behind.)

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    In the legitimate academic and military community. It is far and away the dominant consensus.
    No, it is not. All serious academics see China as a growing threat to WestPac presently and beyond in the future.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    It's a question of priorities. The US is spending all that money waging conflicts around the world and trying to be the world's policemen/superpower. China is concentrating on a regional hegemony. So while The US maybe be spending 700 Billion all over the world, there spending 100 Billion primarily focused on controlling the East and South China seas.
    Exactly the point! But wait till China bitch slaps us one day and then these nay Sayers will understand.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    Again though, it's all about priorities. To maintain a world wide military requires at least 600 billion dollars, and that's not including the wars and such. China only needs to worry about Taiwan, East and South China Sea and that's it. They don't care for any other problems around the world. You won't see them sending troops abroad. Therefore, there not going to invest in the Carriers, Aircraft, Navy, capable of fulfilling such a role. If they needed to lock down either the East or South China Sea, they could do so in short order by 2020, without major shift in priorities to the Pacific. (which we are pivoting to I grant you, but we're still behind.)
    Maybe so, but I will say that last time I was there I actually ended up running with a group of PLA soldiers around Guangzhou. In a country with the nicest airports you will ever see, some of the most technologically advanced infrastructure on earth, their soldiers looked pathetic at best. They looked like what one would picture any third world army would look like. Old ragged uniforms, cheap looking guns, obviously poorly paid, and looking a bit malnourished. Just saying, from what I have seen over in China myself, I don't think we should be overly concerned.
    "You're the only person that decides how far you'll go and what you're capable of." - Ben Saunders (Explorer and Endurance Athlete)

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