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Thread: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Nonsense...sort of.

    Could China launch a preemptive series of air/missile strikes against U.S. bases/stockpile areas and slow America's ability to defend their regional interests...sure.
    But that would only, IMO, be at best temporary.

    You control the skies, you control the war. And China simply does not (not apparently will it by 2020) have the air power to take on the U.S. Air Force and Navy. Not even close. Heck, they would have a hard time taking out the Japanese 'air force' (which undoubtedly would be an active U.S. ally in any regional war).
    It might take a few weeks (at most) for America to transfer enough air power to the region to gain air superiority, but it would happen. And once they control the skies, they can ship all the troops/equipment/supplies they need.
    Sure, China could win the opening battle (like Japan did at Pearl Harbor in 1941) by a preemptive strike. But win the war in 2020...forget it.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Nope, it's just ridiculous. Perhaps by 2040, but definitely no.
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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Wow, how the hell it's possible to discuss something for 17 pages without even reading the original article that the OP site refers to.
    Original article - in Russian

    us-china-relations.jpg

    "Air Sea Battle concept developed by the U.S. military to effectively counter the efforts of countries such as China and Iran to disrupt the deployment of U.S. forces in the surrounding regions.

    Air Sea Battle concept developed by the U.S. military to effectively counter the efforts of countries such as China and Iran to disrupt the deployment of U.S. forces in the surrounding regions. Conceptually Air Sea Battle has three main lines of action: the destruction of the opponents' management, control and intelligence potential, destroying the means by which the enemy is trying to isolate the area of ​​warfare to prevent U.S. forces from entering it, and the destruction of enemy strike force.

    The problem is that China for many years has been building its armed forces on the basis of such an option of enemy action. China's strategy, in turn, is based on large-scale impact on the systems of intelligence and control of its enemy using electronic warfare and cyber attacks and the use of anti-satellite weapons.

    China will be able to deliver a massive and precise non-nuclear blow on U.S. military facilities and transport infrastructure in the region, dramatically slowing the rate of increase of U.S. forces in the theater of military operations. Destruction of the Chinese potential, in order to implement its strategy of isolation of the battle area, may require a huge amount of resources and, more importantly, time, given the massive Chinese investment in modern air defenses .

    The presence of China's huge stockpiles of high-precision non-nuclear ballistic and cruise missiles, means that large numbers of aircraft and the U.S. Navy will be diverted to the task of providing missile defense and to destruction of mobile missile complexes.

    Today, the U.S. faces an internal crisis and lack of funds. While U.S. forces are spread thinly across different regions of the world, and in some of its parts, such as the Middle East, their presence is an important element of the existing balance of power. Although the Asia-Pacific region is a declared priority of the U.S. military construction, the U.S. can not maintain the same concentration of there way to that observed in the North Atlantic during the Cold War, without negatively affecting their obligations in other parts of the world.

    Taiwan, despite its considerable forces, is extremely vulnerable to attack from the mainland. Using the military potential of the territory in Sino-American conflict which is not directly affecting the island, may be difficult for political reasons. Philippines, despite the considerable territory and population, have negligible military potential and are likely to divert American forces to its defense, than can do at least something to help .

    It is possible that after the completion of the current cycle of military reform and rearmament by 2020 China will be quite capable in the local conflict quickly defeat the U.S. allies and U.S. forces in the western Pacific Ocean, disrupting or slowing down the transfer of U.S. forces to the region from other parts of world. China may be able to achieve the political goals of the war before the United States in the region will focus the energy needed to complete a counterattack.

    Trying to punish China and knock it out from its positions after an accomplished Chinese victory would mean for the U.S. entry into a protracted military conflict with a major foreign power - the first time since the Korean War. While no guarantee of victory and a real risk of a nuclear catastrophe. The strongest militarily U.S. allies will be in Europe and are unlikely to be able or interested in providing any help. The U.S. may simply have to accept defeat.

    Thus, soon becomes obvious that the protection of American interests in East Asia can not be achieved without a permanent presence in the western Pacific of significant numbers of U.S. forces. Moreover, the inevitable and important part of this force's presence will be land forces. With the decline in budgetary resources, it means that the United States will face problems in securing military presence in other parts of the world such as the Middle East.
    Thus changes in the nature of military confrontation in the Pacific certainly entail significant consequences for global politics and security.
    "

    Vasily Kashin for "Voice of Russia"
    26 Dec. 2013
    Translated by FallenAngel


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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst


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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    China IS becoming an issue, you think the EU becoming one country could project itself more favorably in the event of a conflict with China?
    Yes. That is why I said it.

    It could communicate that China may be big and strong but it will have to look for riches elsewhere!
    Quote Originally Posted by poweRob View Post
    Stats come out and always show life getting better. News makes money in making you think its not.
    The Republic of Dardania is the proper name for: http://www.debatepolitics.com/europe...ification.html

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Morality Games View Post
    Indeed. After Iraq, nobody in the U.S. (and that includes Obama) seriously "wants" to flex our military muscle. But we also don't want to lose traction on long established policies and goals.

    Assad using chemical weapons antagonizes the fragile balance of peace in the Middle East, a peace we have devoted decades of resources to preserve. From that perspective, Obama had little choice but to draw lines and make threats.
    Or did they?

    Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh has dropped yet another bombshell allegation: President Obama wasn't honest with the American people when he blamed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for a sarin-gas attack in that killed hundreds of civilians.

    Seymour Hersh Alleges Obama Administration Lied on Syria Gas Attack

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Morality Games View Post
    ... I doubt our failure to make good on our threat to attack Syria had much to do with an increase in wisdom.

    (1) Democrats were tied up by their constituents

    (2) Republicans do anything to undermine Obama.

    (3) Our allies weren't really willing to match our commitment due to domestic politics

    (4) Russia offered us an easier alternative to make good on our 'principles' and obligations to our Middle East allies, backed by a threat of turning Syria into a proxy war along with the intrinsic threat of it turning into a second Iraq. The highest and most practical levels of our government had little choice but to accept from a diplomatic and domestic politics perspective.
    AND!!! Much to my pleasant surprise, there was a fair amount of angst and opposition amongst the American people this time, unlike the similar lead up to war in Iraq in which those of us who opposed were tiny in number (comparatively) and somewhat persecuted for opposing. There were even congressional members who later stated, to oppose was very dangerous to ones career and proponents of the war EXPLOITED that.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by MMC View Post
    Yeah Monte thats what the Piece I had up was about......plus like I said earlier, these Asian Nations standing together will be enough. As China is into conflict with all of them. We wont need to look to the Europeans nor even consider them to be at our side with anything in this region.

    Kerry has made several trips to NAM. Plus again.....South Korea already made their Statement. I didn't see anything from China responding back.
    China need not be like one of their silly neighbors and saber rattle. As another poster already mentioned, saber rattling stems from a form of weakness. At any rate. I'm not sure I understand what your driving at. Are you suggesting that the US isn't working on redistributing 60% of our military assets to the WestPac, that we aren't having unusual levels and numbers of meetings with China's regional neighbors, or that the Pentagon isn't looking for additional deep water ports for our navy in the region. Are you saying that the regional players both can and will deal with China on their own?

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    China need not be like one of their silly neighbors and saber rattle. As another poster already mentioned, saber rattling stems from a form of weakness. At any rate. I'm not sure I understand what your driving at. Are you suggesting that the US isn't working on redistributing 60% of our military assets to the WestPac, that we aren't having unusual levels and numbers of meetings with China's regional neighbors, or that the Pentagon isn't looking for additional deep water ports for our navy in the region. Are you saying that the regional players both can and will deal with China on their own?
    Well I already had mentioned them being allied with us.....so I don't agree with the premise that China could defeat us.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    Or did they?

    Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh has dropped yet another bombshell allegation: President Obama wasn't honest with the American people when he blamed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for a sarin-gas attack in that killed hundreds of civilians.

    Seymour Hersh Alleges Obama Administration Lied on Syria Gas Attack
    From the beginning, I assumed it was a rebel setup.

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