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Thread: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    I don't remember that many great naval battles during the Vietnam War...

    A deliberately falsified report of a naval attack on a US ship is what justified the beginning of the Vietnam war. But many wars have been started or pursued by the USA upon outright lies and false claims to the American public.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Yes, and facing off with China today without the US squarely behind them, wouldn't be in their best interest. Which could explain why they are considering at least, allowing the US Navy use once again of its deep water port, dispite the history of US war crimes there!
    There are 2 direct flights a day from LAX to Ho Chi Minh city....Ironic isn't it?

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    I doubt we're really going to be facing Chinese ships in this scenario. Best they'd hope to send out is some of diesel subs for some hit and run stuff, but honestly they know that if they tried a fleet on fleet engagement, they'd lose. Instead, they'll lock down the area with Electronic Warfare, Anti-Satelite Weapons, Cruise Missiles, Air Patrols/Strikes. They've been planning for this for a long time, and I think that they are way ahead at this point when it comes to being able lock it down before we can do anything about it. And what's the 1000's soldiers lives about? No one's launching a ground campaign over this. Not unless the Koreas get involved... which in that case things could definitely snowball. But like you said, China wouldn't want it to go that far. If something were to happen, they'd give it their best shot and then move on. Then it be up to the US and the West to see if they want to enact sanctions that were hurt them as much as China (maybe more or less), or just deal with it.
    What you're saying here is really quite sound, but as you also pointed out earlier, **** happens, and somebody makes a bad move and its on. Often what may seem sound analysis today looks very different tomorrow. In 1936, Hitler made TIME Magazines Man of the Year!

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by iguanaman View Post
    There are 2 direct flights a day from LAX to Ho Chi Minh city....Ironic isn't it?
    Just have that fact on standby did you? How long you been waiting to use that?

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by iguanaman View Post
    There are 2 direct flights a day from LAX to Ho Chi Minh city....Ironic isn't it?
    And many more to Bejing.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    No they couldn't. The article also hedges enormously:

    "Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region..." Not that this is likely either but it is a vast difference.
    Actually what Kashin said was this;
    "It is possible that after the completion of the current cycle of military reform and rearmament by 2020 China will be quite capable in the local conflict to quickly defeat the U.S. allies and U.S. forces in the western Pacific Ocean, disrupting or slowing down the transfer of U.S. forces to the region from other parts of world. China may be able to achieve the political goals of the war before the United States in the region will focus the energy needed to complete a counterattack .

    Trying to punish China and knock it out from its positions after an accomplished Chinese victory would mean for the U.S. entry into a protracted military conflict with a major foreign power - the first time since the Korean War. While no guarantee of victory and a real risk of a nuclear catastrophe. The strongest militarily U.S. allies will be in Europe and are unlikely to be able or interested in helping . The U.S. may simply have to accept defeat."


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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Fallenangel View Post
    Actually what Kashin said was this;
    "It is possible that after the completion of the current cycle of military reform and rearmament by 2020 China will be quite capable in the local conflict to quickly defeat the U.S. allies and U.S. forces in the western Pacific Ocean, disrupting or slowing down the transfer of U.S. forces to the region from other parts of world. China may be able to achieve the political goals of the war before the United States in the region will focus the energy needed to complete a counterattack .

    Trying to punish China and knock it out from its positions after an accomplished Chinese victory would mean for the U.S. entry into a protracted military conflict with a major foreign power - the first time since the Korean War. While no guarantee of victory and a real risk of a nuclear catastrophe. The strongest militarily U.S. allies will be in Europe and are unlikely to be able or interested in helping . The U.S. may simply have to accept defeat."


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    That sort of sums up what I was thinking. The "war" will probably only last a few days to maybe a couple of weeks. Just enough for everyone to throw what they got in the ring, then let the dust settle. Neither side want's to escalate it any further so, that would be that. Good post.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by joko104 View Post
    A deliberately falsified report of a naval attack on a US ship is what justified the beginning of the Vietnam war. But many wars have been started or pursued by the USA upon outright lies and false claims to the American public.
    Exactly, almost all of them. Really makes one wonder why Americans never learn this lesson, but always, and nearly blindly, line up behind the government in solidarity to wage the next one! Strange isn't it?

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    That sort of sums up what I was thinking. The "war" will probably only last a few days to maybe a couple of weeks. Just enough for everyone to throw what they got in the ring, then let the dust settle. Neither side want's to escalate it any further so, that would be that. Good post.
    I'd say Russia nailed it, again. And that's not Russia throwing their hat in the ring on the Chinese side either!

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Well if some Foreign country gives them a technology boost you never know, case in point..
    ISRAEL SELLS ARMS TO CHINA, U.S. SAYS - NYTimes.com

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