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Thread: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

  1. #111
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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    We're working on that too HB.


    As the Obama administration revamps its Asian strategy in response to a rising China, the U.S. military is eyeing a return to some familiar bases from its last conflict in the region — the Vietnam War.


    In next-door Vietnam, Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta this month became the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the naval and air base at Cam Ranh Bay since the end of the war. Citing the “tremendous potential here,” Panetta enthused about the prospect of U.S. ships again becoming a common sight at the deep-water port.

    U.S. seeks return to SE Asian bases - The Washington Post

    CAM RANH BAY, Vietnam - On Sunday Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta became the first Pentagon chief to visit Cam Ranh Bay’s deep water port since the end of the Vietnam war - when America used it as a base of operations to wage an illegal war in that country.

    The US military is hoping that American atrocities and war crimes will not get in the way of its return to the strategically important base in the South China Sea.

    US seeks to establish a naval base in Vietnam to threaten China - Wichita Military Affairs | Examiner.com

    Note the mention of the "illegal" war there!
    Now that's pretty interesting. I see the article is a year old, where are we at now when it comes to a military partnership with Vietnam though?
    Last edited by Hamster Buddha; 12-30-13 at 07:54 PM. Reason: Multi-quote Fail

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    Now that's pretty interesting. I see the article is a year old, where are we at now when it comes to a military partnership with Vietnam though?
    This is a couple weeks old!!

    Kerry’s Return to Vietnam Is All About Blocking China
    - See more at: Kerry


    The US is talking to the Philippine's as well about a port, perhaps in case it doesn't work out in Vietnam, I suppose. Also, I don't know that this is so much of a military partnership that Clinton/Gate's was working on or just a case of Vietnam being concerned enough about China to make the distasteful arrangement.
    Last edited by Montecresto; 12-30-13 at 08:31 PM.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    Sinking one ship would immediately demand a nuclear strike though? We'd do a measured response... strike back at the areas that launched the attack (or attempt to). I just don't see the US starting Armageddon over a few islands in the East China Sea.
    So us sinking a few Chinese ships in retaliation wouldn't escalate into full scale war? The Chinese know full well that at the very least they would have to vacate the entire disputed area or be destroyed. That's 1000's of soldiers lives and a one way street to WWIII if they fail to heed.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Have you done a quick check on China's navy then verses now?
    LOL The mightiest Navy in the World was no good against Vietnam way back when and nothing has changed that. The Vietnamese will do what is in their best interests and if siding with the US is that then China will not scare them out of it.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    This is a couple weeks old!!

    Kerry’s Return to Vietnam Is All About Blocking China
    - See more at: Kerry
    This is interesting and would like more details:

    The United States announced Monday a new maritime partnership with Vietnam that on paper will help Hanoi police its waters. In reality, it's a way to give Vietnam a bit more muscle to defend its territorial interests in the potentially oil- and gas-rich but contested waters of the South China Sea. - See more at: Kerry

    Something I read in the article that interested me was that I didn't realize how much the law is currently constraining what we can do with Vietnam, a former enemy:

    On the one hand, that's because U.S. military aid to its former enemy is constrained. - See more at: Kerry

    I still say the best bet would be to start with exercises though to really show a cooperation that is aimed at China. But I suppose it's all that can be done at this point.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by iguanaman View Post
    So us sinking a few Chinese ships in retaliation wouldn't escalate into full scale war? The Chinese know full well that at the very least they would have to vacate the entire disputed area or be destroyed. That's 1000's of soldiers lives and a one way street to WWIII if they fail to heed.
    I doubt we're really going to be facing Chinese ships in this scenario. Best they'd hope to send out is some of diesel subs for some hit and run stuff, but honestly they know that if they tried a fleet on fleet engagement, they'd lose. Instead, they'll lock down the area with Electronic Warfare, Anti-Satelite Weapons, Cruise Missiles, Air Patrols/Strikes. They've been planning for this for a long time, and I think that they are way ahead at this point when it comes to being able lock it down before we can do anything about it. And what's the 1000's soldiers lives about? No one's launching a ground campaign over this. Not unless the Koreas get involved... which in that case things could definitely snowball. But like you said, China wouldn't want it to go that far. If something were to happen, they'd give it their best shot and then move on. Then it be up to the US and the West to see if they want to enact sanctions that were hurt them as much as China (maybe more or less), or just deal with it.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by iguanaman View Post
    LOL The mightiest Navy in the World was no good against Vietnam way back when and nothing has changed that. The Vietnamese will do what is in their best interests and if siding with the US is that then China will not scare them out of it.
    Yes, and facing off with China today without the US squarely behind them, wouldn't be in their best interest. Which could explain why they are considering at least, allowing the US Navy use once again of its deep water port, dispite the history of US war crimes there!

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    This is a couple weeks old!!

    Kerry’s Return to Vietnam Is All About Blocking China
    - See more at: Kerry


    The US is talking to the Philippine's as well about a port, perhaps in case it doesn't work out in Vietnam, I suppose. Also, I don't know that this is so much of a military partnership that Clinton/Gate's was working on or just a case of Vietnam being concerned enough about China to make the distasteful arrangement.
    Next time China pulls some stupid ****, I'd give Vietnam a few new boats. That'll peeve them off to be sure.

    That's actually my philosophy with a lot of places. Pakistan ticks me off, I'm giving away new toys to India. Russia ticks me off, well Germany's getting a new defense system for xmas.

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by iguanaman View Post
    LOL The mightiest Navy in the World was no good against Vietnam way back when and nothing has changed that. The Vietnamese will do what is in their best interests and if siding with the US is that then China will not scare them out of it.
    I don't remember that many great naval battles during the Vietnam War...

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    Re: China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    I don't remember that many great naval battles during the Vietnam War...
    That's because there have been no "great naval battles" for 70 years. That's my point.
    Last edited by iguanaman; 12-30-13 at 09:06 PM.

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