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Thread: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

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    Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    The National Intelligence Estimate, which includes input from the country’s 16 intelligence agencies, predicts that the Taliban and other power brokers will become increasingly influential as the United States winds down its longest war in history, according to officials who have read the classified report or received briefings on its conclusions.
    The grim outlook is fueling a policy debate inside the Obama administration about the steps it should take over the next year as the U.S. military draws down its remaining troops.

    U.S. intelligence analysts did not provide a detailed mapping of areas they believe are likely to become controlled by specific groups or warlords in coming years, said one of the officials.
    But the analysts anticipate that the central government in Kabul is all but certain to become increasingly irrelevant as it loses “purchase” over parts of the country, the official said.
    Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence estimate warns - The Washington Post

    Afganistan, and some US "officials dispute (are in denial) this. ( see link)
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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Afghan becoming Pakistan (minus nukes, let's hope) is development. If Somalia can pull out of warlord-ocracy, so can Afghan. Locally sourced troops seems to help in the case of Somalia.

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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Monday rejected as baseless a U.S. intelligence forecast that the gains the United States and allies have made in the past three years will be significantly rolled back by 2017.
    President Hamid Karzai's spokesman dismissed the U.S. forecast, reported by the Washington Post on the weekend, and suggested there was an ulterior motive for it.

    Karzai also denied having reached agreement with the United States on the wording of contentious clauses in the U.S. security pact. But he added that the "zero-option" was an empty threat.
    "The U.S. won't go and I have realised that," he said
    .
    Afghanistan rejects grim U.S. intelligence forecast as baseless | Reuters

    call their damn bluff, and GET OUT NOW.
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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    Afghan becoming Pakistan (minus nukes, let's hope) is development. If Somalia can pull out of warlord-ocracy, so can Afghan. Locally sourced troops seems to help in the case of Somalia.
    what the heck is that supposed to mean??
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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by annata View Post
    what the heck is that supposed to mean??
    It means there was and will remain progress in Afghanistan. That progress is likely to lead to further development. None of which was possible under terrorist rule.

    Who promised instant utopia?

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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by annata View Post
    Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence estimate warns - The Washington Post

    Afganistan, and some US "officials dispute (are in denial) this. ( see link)
    The US gave the Afghanis a chance to improve their lives. The Americans spent plenty on it. The Afghanis have probably blown it.
    It is now up to them and the International community.

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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    It means there was and will remain progress in Afghanistan. That progress is likely to lead to further development. None of which was possible under terrorist rule.

    Who promised instant utopia?
    uh huh. where did you buy your rose colored glasses? (rhetorical) ?

    "progress"? Isn't that what the US Intel said is problematic without continual heavy presence?
    (8k isn't going to do it -we need a minimum of 12-20k)

    Just how many Americans are you willing to sacrifice for that ungovernable pile of rocks? 2300 not enough for you yet?

    Just how long do you want to stay there? 13 years long enough? What happens when we finally do leave??
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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by annata View Post
    Just how long do you want to stay there? 13 years long enough? What happens when we finally do leave??

    I agree with this:

    Quote Originally Posted by joG View Post
    The US gave the Afghanis a chance to improve their lives. The Americans spent plenty on it. The Afghanis have probably blown it.
    It is now up to them and the International community.

    And I think locally sourced military intervention (as necessary) is a good idea (see: Somalia).

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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by joG View Post
    The US gave the Afghanis a chance to improve their lives. The Americans spent plenty on it. The Afghanis have probably blown it.
    It is now up to them and the International community.
    You mean to say the official reason for going into A-Stan was bull****?

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    Re: Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence (WAPO)

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    I agree with this:

    And I think locally sourced military intervention (as necessary) is a good idea (see: Somalia).
    The US must make clear that that is always an option, where the local government and population act in emnity against the US or harbor enemies of the US planing violence against Americans or Americans' property.

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